2024 MLB Superlatives: AL Central

This is part three of a six part series. IIf you’ve not read part one, previewing the AL West, the link can be found here: https://allphly.com/2024-mlb-superlatives-nl-west/

Apologies for the delay. I was unavoidably deterred the past week or so. And the truth is, this one was always going to be the toughest of the series so far to write. Call it writer’s block. Or call it for what it is: the American League Central stinks. Coming up with five superlatives for a division that seemingly likes to sabotage itself will not be an easy feat. However, a corner may have been turned in 2023, and this offseason. The Minnesota Twins appear to be legit contenders. The Kansas City Royals… *checks notes* SPENT MONEY? Woah. And the Detroit Tigers could be knocking on the doorstep after a long and rugged rebuild. So, maybe it won’t be so challenging.

Let’s give it a shot.

Chicago White Sox: OF Luis Robert leads the AL in Homeruns

Since “Most times using a position player to pitch” probably still will belong to the Colorado Rockies in 2024, this one was kind of a gimme in terms of the player I was going to choose.

Prayers to our friends on the CHGO White Sox team. #FreeHerb. This is going to be a loooooooooooooong season. The White Sox genuinely might be the worst team in Major League Baseball in 2024.

But the lone bright spot on this putrid White Sox team is budding superstar outfielder, Luis Robert. Robert shed the injury tag last season, by playing his first full big league season. And how did he reward White Sox faithful? Just 38 homeruns, 36 doubles, a .542 slugging percentage and a top-30 oWar (4.4).

But the sheer power of Robert is simply spectacular to watch. His max exit velocity (which doesn’t translate to homeruns directly) says the man does nothing but hit missiles. He was in the 98th or 99th percentile across each of his first three seasons. And even in his first full season, Robert was in the 88th percentile.

That power is so great, in fact, that our friends at CHGO White Sox had a a podcast episode dedicated to Robert hitting 500 career homeruns. And while that would require Robert to remain healthy for the forseeable future, the pop is definitively there to reach that feat. He’s just got a long way to go (74 career homeruns).

Robert hit 38 homeruns in 2022. His expected homerun total was 37.5. The man does not get cheated.

And at this point, forget throwing him fastballs in the zone. Robert posted z 10 Run Value on fastballs in 2023. He hit .315. He had a hard hit percentage of 58.3%. Just don’t do it. You’ll regret it.

Last year, Robert finished third in the American League in homeruns, behind Shohei Ohtani and Adolis Garcia. Ohtani no longer plays in the American League. And while I think Garcia could very well lead the AL in RBI (shameless plug for part one of this series) Robert might take the homerun crown in 2024.

Of course, Aaron Judge is always lurking in New York, I expect Julio Rodriguez to play like an MVP in 2024, and Spencer Torkelson could have a big power year for the Tigers, but I think it’s Robert’s to win this season.

He certainly won’t take the RBI title. That would require teammates to get on base. One more time, for effect: Robert hit 38 homeruns last year. He had 80 RBI. That means he only drove in 42 runners that weren’t himself. Again, sorry White Sox fans.

Robert may not be a White Sox for long, so enjoy him while you can, South Side. The kid is a superstar!

Cleveland Guardians: SP Triston McKenzie wins AL Comeback Player of the Year

About this time last season, I took Triston McKenzie as my sleeper to win the AL Cy Young. That lasted all of about ten seconds, as it was later revealed McKenzie’s elbow was significantly more injured than originally anticipated. Battling injuries all season, McKenzie was limited to just four starts, spanning 16 innings pitched.

He missed few bats and couldn’t navigate the strikezone, surrendering career high hard hit rates and walk rates, while producing the lowest strikeout rate of his young career. Small sample size, I know, but they’re used to say McKenzie wasn’t himself in 2023.

By all accounts, McKenzie is ready, and healthy, to begin the 2024 campaign. And with that, I expect a return to form of sorts. 2022 McKenzie was electric, posting a 2.96 ERA and a sub-1.000 WHIP over 31 appearances. He struckout over 25% of the batters he faced, and walked just 5.9%.

McKenzie’s fastball was great in 2022, but it was his curveball that did all the dirty work for him. Batters hit just .120 off his curveball, whiffing at 45% of the time. McKenzie used that curveball as a putaway pitch over 31% of the time. His mix of pitches, including heavy use of his fastball, and a healthy dose of his slider, made McKenzie a formidable arm for Cleveland in 2022.

Speaking of that fastball: it’s a pretty simple formula. McKenzie excels when he spots it for strikes early in an at bat. In 2022, McKenzie struckout over a third of the batters he faced (132 of 377) when throwing first pitch strike. It’s simplistic, but effective. In 2022 alone, his fastball was a 17 Run Value. That ranked 13th among pitchers with at least 250 at bats. Rise it to 350 at bats? Sixth.

McKenzie has the stuff. He has the makeup. It’s all about putting together a full, healthy season and ensuring that elbow is well. If he pitches 25 or more games this season, McKenzie will be on my shortlist for Comeback Player of the Year Award in the American League in 2024.

Detroit Tigers: SP Tarik Skubal wins AL Cy Young

Much like Seattle’s George Kirby, I’m bullish on Skubal heading into 2024. Unlike Kirby, the sample size is much smaller from 2023.

Skubal only appeared in 15 games last year, but both his stats and metrics suggest he’s ready to breakout in a big way in 2024. Across 80.1 IP, Skubal posted a 2.80 ERA, 102 strikeouts and a 0.896 WHIP. He walked just 14 over those 80.1 innings, posting a 1.6 BB/9. In 15 starts, hitters slashed .199/.242/.298 against Skubal.

Have you noticed the common thread among pitchers I’m excited about in 2024? They throw a ton of strikes, don’t walk hitter, and keep the ball in the yard. PITCHING STILL EXISTS IN 2024!

Skubal has seen an increase in velocity each of the last two seasons, particularly with his fastball. He sat 94 in each of his first three MLB seasons before throwing, on average, nearly 96 in 2023. Something the metrics and numbers don’t tell you: Skubal has some real life to his fastball. It certainly passes the eye test.

One intriguing look into Skubal’s pitch arsenal is that he throws his changeup almost exclusively to right handed hitters. Over the last two season, spanning 36 starts, Skubal threw 584 changeups. He threw 574 of those to right handed hitters, including zero in 2023. But it works. He’s struckout over 60 in the last two years, as it was his most effective put away pitch in 2022 and 2023. He got swings and misses on 50% and 47.5%, respectively, each of the last two seasons on the changeup.

Take into account the smaller sample size, and the metric all look upon Skubal favorably in 2024. his barrel percentage and hard hit percentage each dropped by a full point. He’s missing more bats, as his sweet spot percentage dipped significantly from 2022 to 2023.

I’m apparently now among the masses that are hyping up Skubal for 2024. Whether that’s a good thing, and we’re all onto something, or a bad thing, and the hype is overblown, I’m not backing down on Skubal (and one other starter in the NL Central: my tease for you to come back for part four) making a pedestal type step this season. He legitimately could win the AL Cy Young.

Kansas City Royals: SS Bobby Witt win AL Batting Title

This might be the loftiest goal set yet, based sheerly on the leap Witt would need to take from 2023 to 2024 in term of raising his batting average.

Don’t get me wrong, I think many across the baseball world are calculating 2024 as the year Bobby Witt solidifies himself as a MLB superstar. The kid is on the cusp of becoming something special.

But the approximate jump that Witt would have to take in 2024 is over 50 points. Last year, Witt batted .276, over 20 points higher than his 2022 rookie season. With another step expected, is it even remotely possible for Witt to ascend from .276 to the .330 that Yandy Diaz led the American League with last season?

I actually think it is.

See, Witts expected batting average in 2023 was .294, 18 points higher than his actual average. Pair that with the fact that he hit 50% more homeruns in 2023 than in 2022, meaning his power is increasing, and his incredible speed on the base paths, and the jump to .330 is not as farfetched as it originally sounded.

Also, if you look at Witt’s spray charts over the last two seasons, you’ll notice significantly more solid contact the opposite way in 2023. That means his ability to hit to all fields is getting stronger. Those types of hitters are hard to get out. He also struckout less in 2023, down 14 punch outs in eight more games played. His strikeout percentage dropped from 21.4% to 17.4%. Witt barreled more balls in 2023 and hit a higher percentage of those barrels hard. Along with all of these numbers, his exit velocity increased.

Witt improved the most against fastball in 2023, across the board. His batting average and slugging percentage both went up against heaters, and his whiff rate and put away percentages each decreased. He’s made the adjustment to Major League pitching.

A 54 point batting average increase over one season is extremely lofty. But that’s playing under the assumption that .330 is needed to win the batting title in 2024. Only four qualified players in the American League hit over .300 in 2023, and only eight had better averages than Witt. Put it in those terms, it’s much more palatable.

Minnesota Twins: SP Pablo Lopez leads the AL in Strikeouts

Talk about a win-win trade. Not often do you see a trade that is balanced and works for both sides the way the Twins-Marlins deal that swapped Pablo Lopez and Luis Arreaz did. Arreaz won the NL batting title on the way to helping the Marlins clinch a NL Wild Card berth.

Meanwhile, Lopez was the ace of the Minnesota Twins staff, tossing 194 innings and striking out 234. In fact, if it wasn’t a cheap way out, I wanted to pick Lopez to win the AL Cy Young in 2024, but since I’ve already given that nod to Skubal, I’ll turn to the stats leaderboard.

Lopez wasn’t far off in thew American League in K’s in 2023, punching out 234 hitters, the second most in the AL, and the third most in MLB. To further prove a point, I almost considered picking him to lead the entire league in strikeouts, but Spencer Strider changed my mind.

Maybe I should stop being a coward.

I think two things can be true at once: I don’t think people realized how good Pablo Lopez was in Miami. And I don’t think Pablo Lopez realized how good Pablo Lopez was in Miami. Because something was unlocked in his first season in Minnesota, and his numbers popped more than ever before.

His walk rate dropped, and in turn, so did his WHIP, but it was the strikeout number that really soared. Lopez went from an 8.7K/9 in 2022 to a 10.9K/9 in 2023.

The reason: well, it’s at least due, in part, to the addition of a sweeper in 2023. Lopez posted a 6 Run Value on his sweeper in 2023, tied with his fastball as his most effective pitch. Batters whiffed at the pitch 36% of the time. Coincidentally, that’s the same percentage as his K-rate on the pitch. He ranked eighth in Major League Baseball with that number for pitchers who faced a minimum 100 plate appearances. Increase that number to 150 plate appearances, and he’s second behind only former teammate, Sonny Gray.

To dive even deeper in the sweeper, Minnesota’s pitching staff may have just figured it out. Three 2023 Twins (Lopez, Gray and reliever Griffin Jax) finished in the top ten on sweeper whiff rate. Credit to the Twins coaching staff and bullpen team for this one.

Compiling stats, of course, comes down to health, first and foremost. Lopez hasn’t missed a start in two seasons. Should that trend continue for a third, he’ll strike a ton of hitters out. I think he outpaces Gausman and Cole in 2024.

*Thanks for sticking around with me this far. We’re officially halfway done. In the next piece, we’ll move to the National League Central*