I think it would be wise to wait until after the Olympics. It’s definitely easier to score points in Oct/Nov than it is in Feb/Mar. Let’s see how he holds up physically over the grind of compressed games due to the Olympics disruption. I think it’s worth the risk of paying more to watch-and-see a bit. Hoping for the best and we sign him in the 8-8.5 mil range.

Excellent research and analysis, Charlie. I think the Flyers should get that extension done soon.

As you point out, Zegras has to be interested in a deal now. I would think he’ll want to wait awhile too

Well done, very informative, and timely article, Charlie! Based on the different scenarios, I think that the smart money is either singing Zegras soon or around the first of the year to maximize any savings. His game looks far more sustainable than Tippett, who is too hot and cold. Many of the recent contracts been done too soon esp the forwards. It seems that the defense ones of Sanheim/York are much more favorable than the Couts/Tippett ones in comparison.

Great analysis.

It’s also worth considering that Zegras’s numbers could be even better if he had a better C than Dvorak playing with him.

And while reducing risk on the contract is a good thing ($1MM per year isn’t a big amount t), smart teams try to create excess value on their contracts. So IMO, it would behoove Danny and team to take a gamble and try and to sign Zegras to a contract that gives them said excess value. The Flyers don’t have anyone like that on the roster right now.

The cost of your stars never goes down, pay the man!

I vote for let’s reevaluate in January. In my 67 years of Philadelphia fandom I have seen too many times things go south with a player and the franchise regrets it.

Nick Castellanos, Carson Wentz, Tajuan Walker, Joel Embiid (yes I am counting him. Guy is softer than marshmallow fluff)

Great analysis!