Six keys to a Sixers win in Game 6

The Sixers will kick off Game 6 tonight in Philadelphia in a few hours.

The odds of the Sixers coming all the way back from 3-1 down are … decidedly not great. Boston has won all 32 playoff series when they jump out to a 3-1 lead. The Sixers, by contrast, have not come all the way back in a single one of the 18 series when they’ve found themselves in a 3-1 hole.

Even still, the circumstances in this one are a little bit unique. The Sixers were down in the series, in part, because their best player was missing for the first half of the series while recovering from an emergency appendectomy. The Celtics, for their part, aren’t the Boston Celtics of prior years, having gutted some key depth pieces to get under the luxury tax in what many thought would be a gap year for the perennial contenders following Jayson Tatum rupturing his Achilles last spring.

All of which is to say that the task, while difficult, isn’t quite as daunting as 32-0 would suggest. I would still make the Celtics the heavy favorites, but the Sixers have a chance to make things really interesting tonight.

Here are 6 thoughts/tidbits which could be key to tonight’s game.

1. Boston has been a great road team under Mazzulla
   

Over the course of Mazzulla’s four seasons in Boston, the Celtics actually have a better record on the road in the playoffs (17-7, 70.8%) than they do at TD Garden (19-12, 61.3%), so don’t rest easy on the fact that this one will be played at the Wells Fargo Center Xfinity Mobile Arena.

Season	Home w/l	Net Rtg	Road w/l	Net Rtg
2022-23	5-6	+4.1	6-3	+2.1
2023-24	9-2	+11.7	7-1	+4.4
2024-25	4-2	+14.2	2-3	-3.4
2025-26	1-2	-0.1	2-0	+23.3

Now, the net rating tends to be stronger at home for the Celtics, who become a bit of a frontrunner in front of their home crowds. But their focus on the road, and ability to win close games, is admirable.

As we’ve talked about a lot in this series, the Celtics aren’t likely to make the kind of mistakes to beat themselves. The Sixers will have to make their own luck in this one.

2. The 3-guard lineup has worked for the Sixers.

Kelly Oubre Jr has really, really struggled so far this series, shooting just 38.3% from the field and 3-19 from 3-point range. In fact, so far this series Oubre has way more fouls (14) than 3ptm (3) and assists (5) combined. More importantly, the trio of Maxey, Edgecombe and Oubre have been outscored by 0.9 points per 100 possessions while on the floor together, whereas the Maxey, VJ and Grimes trio have a +4.0 net rating (albeit in just 95 possessions).

With how aggressively and effectively Boston helps off of non-shooters, along with what I expect to be an emphasis on doubling Joel Embiid after his big Game 5 performance, I would strongly consider starting Grimes tonight. That being said, I don’t expect that to happen, both because coaches are frequently hesitant to make changes like that mid-series (especially when coming off of a win), but also for locker room politics.

Fine. But I would have a quick hook on Oubre in this one, hoping both to build off of Grimes’ big Game 5 performance, but also to weaponize at least the threat of his shot against a team that’s likely going to be very aggressive helping off of Kelly.

One quick note on that point about the Celtics likely doubling Joel Embiid way more aggressively than they did in Game 5: Boston’s superpower in this regard is how well they change that double team up. Everything from the timing of it, to where it’s coming from, to how they recover back to the shooters, will change from possession to possession. They’re very good at it.

It’s a lot to ask of the big fella to anticipate and time double teams at an elite level against a sophisticated defense in just his third game back after emergency surgery, but it might just be what determines whether the Sixers live to play another day.

3. Three-point shooting is kinda important.

This one is stating the obvious, but creating, and making, 3-point shots is kind of a big deal against the Celtics!

Game	3pt Margin	Result
1	-36	L (-32)
2	+18	W (+14)
3	-24	L (-8)
4	-45	L (-32)
5	+12	W (+16)

Just as important is the defensive scheme employed. The Sixers did a much better job in Game 5 of fighting through screens, of not over-helping, and of keeping Joel Embiid in a deep drop to both protect the paint and be more competitive on the defensive glass. They’ll need a repeat of that in Game 6.

Also: I’m not saying don’t help. Just don’t help indiscriminately. Boston helps off of 3-point shooters as much as anyone in the league, they just help off of 3-point shooters that they don’t believe are good enough to tilt a series. The Sixers, at their worst, will leave Payton Pritchard or Jayson Tatum open one pass away, with their defender meandering around in the vicinity of the ball handler without actually putting any pressure on them.

The Celtics don’t turn the ball over, so don’t play the risk/reward game that you’re destined to come out on the losing end of.

4. Joel Embiid owns Vucevic in the paint

I wrote about this the other day, but so far this series, Joel Embiid is shooting 11-16 for 25 points when Nikola Vucevic is Boston’s primary defender on him. That’s kind of a big deal, since Boston’s offense has been drastically better with Vucevic on the floor (123.0 points per 100 possessions) than it has been with Queta (110.6), with Vucevic’s shooting, floor spacing and passing opening up all kinds of driving lanes for Boston’s perimeter players.

When Vucevic is on the floor, the Sixers have to attack that mismatch and force Boston to get into rotation.

5. Rebounding is still a massive problem.

The Sixers’ defensive rebounding rate of just 65.2% ranks 17th out of the 18 teams competing in the first round of the playoffs. Only the Los Angeles Lakers (64.2%) are worse.

None of the Sixers’ three centers has really solved the problem, although one (Bona) has predictably been significantly worse than the other two.

Center	DRB%	Pts/Miss	Poss
Embiid	68.7%	21.9	143
Drummond	67.3%	18.9	224
Bona	60.9%	21.0	145

(Pts/Miss is how many points per 100 missed shots the other team has scored. Data from CleaningTheGlass.com.)

I wrote about this the other day, but with Boston’s offensive gameplan of launching 3s, the Sixers need their perimeter players to make a concerted effort in crashing the glass. It can’t just fall on the shoulders of the Sixers’ big men.

To Tyrese Maxey’s credit, he, who has often been one of the primary culprits in the Sixers’ defensive rebounding woes in this series, was a much more committed rebounder in Game 5, and it resulted in (by far) the Sixers’ best defensive rebounding effort in this series.

Outside of 3-point shooting and how the Sixers handle Boston double teaming Joel Embiid in the post, this is one of the bigger keys in determining who will win tonight’s game.

6. Paul George’s defense on Jaylen Brown has been stellar.

Paul George has had a good series on offense for the Sixers, averaging 17.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game, while shooting 49.2% from the field and 14-26 from 3-point range. Him coming out aggressive at the start of Game 5 was a great early indicator that the Sixers had a chance.

Paul George has had a great series defensively.

Tatum and Brown have combined to score just 56 points on 53 field goal attempts when George has been the primary defender on them, shooting a combined 43% from the field.

George really put the clamps on Brown in a big way in Game 5, holding him to just 2-10 shooting for 6 points when defended by George. PG’s effort to start the 4th really got the ball rolling on the Sixers’ dominant 4th quarter, and turned the game around. They’ll need him again tonight.