Eagles-Commanders preview and predictions: Will Eagles protect Jalen Hurts, pressure Sam Howell?

Finally, you don’t need to wait until the late afternoon or evening to watch the Eagles. The first 1 p.m. game (and one of only two 1 p.m. home games) comes Sunday against the 2-1 Washington Commanders. 

The Eagles will play without defensive back Sydney Brown and wide receiver Quez Watkins, who were both ruled out with hamstring injuries. Safety Justin Evans is questionable with a neck injury. 

Washington will play without running back Chris Rodriguez. Safety Percy Butler is questionable. Tight end Logan Thomas has cleared the concussion protocol and will play against the Eagles.

Here’s what to watch on Sunday:

What I’m watching on offense: How does the pass protection hold up against the best pass rush the team has faced thus far? 

The Eagles’ offensive line has quietly been a little further from perfect in pass protection than it was last season, especially in relation to their outsized dominance in the run game. Washington ranks sixth through three weeks in sacks per pass attempt, with 10 sacks to their credit split among eight different players. Montez Sweat leads the way with three and is likely to see the bulk of his chances against Lane Johnson. Chase Young, healthier than he has been in past seasons, has 1.5 sacks and will test Jordan Mailata, who has had a few moments of weakness. And Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne are much more formidable than the interior defensive linemen the Eagles have faced thus far. 

More to the point is how Jalen Hurts will respond to the threat of increased pressure. Hurts has slowly improved over the first three weeks but does not yet look as comfortable in the pocket as he did for much of last season. The goal is to win the week, as Hurts and Nick Sirianni consistently remind us, but the stakes and standards for a team with Super Bowl hopes are higher. If Washington is able to hold up better against the Eagles’ rushing attack, they can put the game in Hurts’ hand. With A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert catching his passes, that should still be a good thing for the offense. Washington has surrendered its share of big plays in the passing game already, so don’t be surprised if Hurts looks for the deep ball.  — Wulf

What I’m watching on defense: If last season’s win over Washington could be a guide, the Eagles will suffocate the Commanders with a pass rush that dominates an overmatched offensive line. (The Eagles had nine sacks in the game last September.) If last season’s loss to Washington could be used as a guide, the Commanders will rely on a ball control offense to bleed the clock and keep the Eagles offense off the field. (Washington possessed the ball for more than 40 minutes last November.) 

So the style will be important to watch, although there are notable factors that are different this season. Washington is in its first year with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, who came from Kansas City to invigorate a lackluster offense. The Commanders also turned to second-year quarterback Sam Howell. On the Eagles side, the run defense is No. 1 in the NFL and has been a force through three games, so it might be more difficult to rush against them. But the Eagles are also undermanned in the secondary, playing without nickel cornerback Avonte Maddox and Brown. That could leave them more susceptible in the passing game — if Howell has time. Howell has already been sacked 19 times this season, including nine times last week. Without Brown, the Eagles can use James Bradberry in the slot and Josh Jobe on the outside, or they can finally turn to Mario Goodrich.  Howell has an impressive group of wide receivers that includes Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. McLaurin topped 100 yards in both games against the Eagles last season. 

Pay attention to the Eagles defensive line, where rookie Jalen Carter has emerged as one of the NFL’s most productive interior pass rushers. The Commanders are vulnerable on the interior of the offensive line. That could be a favorable matchup. Haason Reddick will try to avenge last season’s Super Bowl against right tackle Andrew Wylie, who followed Bieniemy from Kansas City.

If Washington focuses on the ground game, Brian Robinson is the top running back. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry with 47 carries in his first three games. — Berman

Topic that deserves more attention: Haason Reddick had the cast removed from his injured thumb, and he’ll finally play with a full grip this weekend. Reddick has been quiet through three weeks, without a sack and with only one quarterback hit. He did not want to use the injury as an excuse, although he’s thrilled to be playing without protection on his thumb. Opposing offenses have used double-teams and chips to try to slow down Reddick after his 16-sack season in 2022. Reddick sounded unworried, noting that he started slow last season (no sacks in the first two games). He had 4.5 sacks in the next three games. His point was that sacks come in bunches, and that could be the hope this week. 

“Our defensive tackles are making plays inside,” Reddick said. “You’ll start seeing that switching back and forth — you have a front where you can’t account for everybody the whole time. You can’t double-team and chip somebody the whole game. You’ll have to give someone one-on-ones eventually.” — Berman

Number to know: Jalen Hurts has been blitzed on 46.8 percent of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate among all quarterbacks who have started at least two games. Last year, he was blitzed 34.3 percent of the time, the fourth-highest number in the league. Last year, he ranked 17th among 33 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback when blitzed (0.00), while he ranks 20th this year (-0.05). 

Washington, for what it’s worth, played Hurts differently than most opposing defenses in 2022, accounting for two of the four games in which he was blitzed least often. In 2023, the Commanders are storming opposing quarterbacks just 20.2 percent of the time, 23rd in the league.  — Wulf

Predictions

Berman: The Eagles are clearly the superior team. Even with injuries on defense and a short week, it would be a surprise if the Eagles are upset as a nine-point favorites. I saw encouraging signs from Jalen Hurts and think the passing game will take another step — especially if Washington tries to slow down a running offense that has had its way against defenses during the past two weeks. Hurts could surpass 300 yards for the first time this season. On defense, the Eagles need their pass rush to lead the way. Injuries in the middle of the defense can be overcome by a potent pass rush. The Eagles will leave less to complain about this game, advancing to 4-0 before traveling across the country to Los Angeles. Eagles 30, Commanders 16

Wulf: Nine points sure seems like a lot for a division game. I don’t really see the Commanders’ path to success on offense since I expect them to be overrun up front by the Eagles’ defensive tackles. But maybe Eric Bienemy’s recent experience game-planning for the Eagles defense comes in handy? I’m not betting on Sam Howell though. That said, I do expect the Commanders defense to hold up relatively well and test Hurts’ ability to handle pressure. Give me the Eagles in a game that’s close but not quite as close as the score indicates. Eagles 27, Commanders 21