All signs point to… maybe.
When the Phillies re-signed Aaron Nola in November, most observers expected the club to turn its attention to outfield and bullpen depth. Zack Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez form a strong five-man rotation. While a team can never have enough starting pitching, conventional wisdom assumed the Phils would allocate their remaining dollars to more pressing needs.
The team pursued Yoshinobu Yamamoto “aggressively,” however, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggested today that Philadelphia could make a play for Shoto Imanaga, the next Japanese pitching star expected to sign with an MLB team. At age 30, Imanaga is five years older than Yamamoto. And Imanaga’s resume doesn’t sparkle as brightly as his younger colleague’s. But he’s expected to sign for much less money, of course, and could be a nice consolation prize for a Phillies organization still looking to break into the Japanese market. Imanaga has a career 2.96 ERA and 1.08 WHIP overseas, striking out 9.4 batters per nine while pitching an average of about 140 innings per season.
Meanwhile, in a recent NY Post article, Jon Heyman listed the Phillies among several teams interested in the top two free agent starters still on the market: Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Snell is the reigning NL Cy Young winner after leading the majors with a 2.25 ERA last season, and Montgomery has posted an ERA under 4.00 in every season in which he’s pitched more than a handful of games. Both are expected to command enormous, lengthy contracts.
Locally, most observers are shooting down these rumors. MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki, for example, indicated today that the “Phillies’ interest in Yamamoto does not mean they are setting their sights on Blake Snell, Josh Hader or other high-end arms.” Zolecki says that the team planned to make an exception for Yamamoto “because he was such an exceptional talent.” Phillies Nation’s Destiny Lugardo recently tweeted that the “Montgomery and Snell report sounds like [agent Scott] Boras attaching his clients to the Phillies because he can.” And the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber noted today that a number of free agent pitching targets “are still holding out for the best chance to secure a rotation spot,” signaling that the team is shopping for depth closer to the bottom of the rotation than the top. Lauber quoted Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski as stating the following:
“I’ve got a list of names and all that, and I’m hopeful that we’ll be able to add more, but right now, we’re not going to have much success in that regard. Eventually, once they get done with [pursuing] the promised spot in the rotation with another club, they can start looking and say, ‘Hey, maybe they don’t have a lot of depth over there. Maybe that’s an opportunity to go to triple A and be in that spot.’“
Dombrowski’s words do not sound like those of a man shopping for high-end starters.
To me, the reports linking the Phils to Imanaga, Snell, and Montgomery feel like speculation, while the reports from writers closer to the team feel better-sourced. Ranking potential rotation outcomes from most likely to least likely, I’d go:
1. The Phillies sign an inexpensive free agent starter who could step in more effectively than Dylan Covey or Nick Nelson in the case of a rotation injury.
2. The Phillies do not sign a starting pitcher at all.
[big gap]
3. The Phillies sign Imanaga.
[enormous gap]
4. The Phillies sign Snell or Montgomery.
That’s not an exciting prediction, but after evaluating the current state of the rumor mill, I think it’s where we are. It feels like the Phils are a little short on depth, yes. But looking around the league, how many teams feel great about their sixth starting pitcher option? Hell, how many teams feel great about their top three?
The Phils haven’t finished their free agency shopping. But it’s a safe bet that they’ve crossed the big-name starters off their shopping list.
