As the 2024 Major League Baseball season inches closer, as each passing day gets us 24-hours closer to Opening Day, it’s time to begin thinking about who will shine the brightest this season. But, we figured, why stop there. Why stop at just the best of the best, and instead, let’s look at each team individually to see who will stand out, even amongst the teams refusing to spend money (Looking at you, Oakland/Las Vegas/wandering baseball team of the American West for the next few seasons), those who are in the midst of a rebuild, those that SHOULD rebuild and more.
Let’s take a look at one superlative for each team heading into the 2024 campaign.
*This will be a six-part collection, and each piece will be broken down by division to not leave a jumbled assortment of words on 30 teams in one article*
Before we begin, let me establish some ground rules to this game we’re about to play.
First, the obvious choices have been eliminated from consideration. So, for example, the obvious choice when choosing the Atlanta Braves is Ronald Acuña Jr. to win National League MVP. Spoiler alert: he’s likely going to be a candidate for the award again in 2024.
Second, the rules of this game do not stop at awards, but include a player leading the league in any given statistical category. Let’s use Acuña again, as an example. If I feel that the 2023 MVP could lead the NL in stolen bases this year (another spoiler alert: he could) than that statistical leaderboard is also in consideration.
Some of these will be relatively easy to decide, but not for the reasons you might think. The best teams, I foresee, will be the hardest to choose just one player and one award/leaderboard. I actually perceive the bad teams to be far more straightforward to decide.
But, enough rambling from me. Let’s begin with the American League West.
Houston Astros: RHP Bryan Abreu wins Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year
I know what you’re thinking: “Isn’t this typical a closer award?”, a question to which you’d be right. Much like the Heisman and NFL MVP have effectively become quarterback awards, the Reliever of the Year Award, more times than not, has traditionally gone to closers. Since the name change to honor the greatest closer of all time, Mariano Rivera, in 2014, every winner has saved at least 33 games, barring the shortened 2020 season.
So, how does this work, then, for Abreu, the Houston Astros setup man?
Well, I’m still not entirely convinced (and this is entirely speculation on my part) that Ryan Pressly is going to be a Houston Astro for the entirety of 2024. It would sound crazy, in the onset, to move on from Pressly, who has been one of the elite Postseason relievers for the Astros in the past. In fact, he’s fifth all time in Postseason saves.
Even with a devalued fastball as Pressly gets older, his off-speed stuff still plays. He ranked eighth in 2023 in curveball whiff rate percentage. The stuff is not a question.
But what could be in the back of the organization’s mind is the money. Pressly has a $14 million mutual option in 2025, along with a $2 million buyout. If the club foresees scenarios in which Pressly either decides to decline, and opt for free agency, or the team does not value a soon-to-be 36-year old reliever in the future plans, a trade is not entirely out of the question. That hypothetical trade for a team that still is likely to compete in 2024 flirts the fine line between unexpected and shocking. But the Astros appear to be up against it, financially, and have been rumored to be shopping Framber Valdez this offseason.
Should it happen, however, enter Bryan Abreu.
Abreu is the presumed closer in waiting for Houston, and has served as the team’s setup man each of the last two seasons. Over the course of those two campaigns, Abreu has posted a 1.84 ERA, striking out 188 in just over 132 IP. His whiff rates on his two primary pitches, his slider and fastball, were 41.3% and 37.3%, respectively. Paired, his career whiff rate is just under 38%, 13 points higher than league average.
To put it in a word, Abreu is nasty.
While it’s an outside chance the award voters break the closer mold, if any non-closer relief pitcher were to win it, I’d put good money on Abreu.
Los Angeles Angels: 1B Nolan Schanuel wins AL Rookie of the Year
The rudderless ship that is the Los Angeles Angels has had very few moments of calm seas in an otherwise tumultuous storm, despite being captained by two of the greatest baseball players of all time. Now, in a post-Shohei Ohtani world, the Halos will look to get productivity elsewhere. That elsewhere, comes from 2023 first round pick, Nolan Schanuel.
The Angels surprised many last summer when Schanuel was called up to the Major Leagues after just 22 games in the Minor Leagues. It was a move that felt desperate, but was perhaps far more calculated than initially believed. Schanuel was strong in his 29 MLB games, slashing .275/.402/.330, posting more walks than strikeouts. He reached base in each of his first 16 MLB games.
And that’s always been Schanuel’s MO: plate discipline and the ability to hit with two strikes, a skill that has somewhat been devalued in today’s game. (And yes, I know that makes me sound like the Old Man Shouting at Clouds).
I don’t expect Schanuel’s power to grow exponentially in one offseason, and quite frankly, it may never grow to the point of calling the first baseman a “power threat”. I do, however, expect Schanuel to hit a homerun in slightly higher than the 0.9% of at bats, as he did in 2023.
So, you may ask, “How does Schanuel qualify for 2024 RotY?” Good question. The cutoff is 130 at bats. Schanuel had 109 in 2023. So he’s eligibly a rookie heading into 2024.
What does a full season in the Majors look like for Schanuel? That remains to be determined, but stretching his small sample size of 2023 into a full 2024 is more difficult to do than for, say, a power hitter or a strikeout pitcher. But it is not outside the realm of possibility to see the second-year rookie reach base close to 200 in 2024.
American Rookie of the Year will be tough to take in 2024, considering the award is already seemingly being handed to Jackson Holliday, but Schanuel will prove, once again, to be a professional hitter this season.
“Wherever you want to say they’re from” Athletics: OF Esteury Ruiz leads MLB in stolen bases
It took all of three teams to name the obvious. I’m sorry. But this Athletics team is SO bad, it’s really hard to delve any deeper than the surface level stuff.
It doesn’t need to be said: Esteury Ruiz can fly. He led the American League in stolen bases, with 67, in 2023. The only player to swipe more bags was Ronald Acuña Jr, who stole 73.
Ruiz ranked 17th in 2023 in sprint speed on the base paths, clocking in at 29.7 feet/second.
On top of his straight line sprint speed, Ruiz has taken advantage of the opportunities provided to him. In 2023, Ruiz turned 50.5% of his base running “opportunities” into stolen base attempts, ranking first among players with at least 100 opportunities.
Pitcher disengagement limits led to increased stolen base attempts and steals in 2023. I don’t expect those attempts and conversions to change. Ruiz was caught stealing 16% of his attempts in 2023. If Ruiz is able to get on base just a bit more than he did in 2024, there’s non conceivable reason as to why he can’t break the 70 mark.
But that’s the major question: Can Ruiz increase his OBP in 2024? Last season, Ruiz hit a respectable .254, but only walked 20 times, leading to an OBP of just .309. Compare that to Acuña, who was on base at a .381 mark. Now, please, do not get it misconstrued: Acuña is lightyears better than Ruiz. But, I use the comparison to prove that opportunity leads to attempts. Attempts lead to steals. It’s pretty basic stuff.
If Ruiz can raise that .309 OBP to even .325 in 2024, an extra 5-10 stolen bases is extremely doable.
Seattle Mariners: SP George Kirby leads American League in ERA
Yes, I’m THAT bullish on George Kirby heading into his third season with the Mariners.
Before we even get to the stuff, let’s take a look at the command. Kirby walked 0.9 batters per nine innings pitched in 2023. That’s almost impossible to do. Unless you’re Greg Maddux. Or George Kirby. Kirby walked 19 hitters in 190.2 innings pitched last season.
He also keeps the ball in the yard. While Kirby is benefited by his home starts at T-Mobile Field, a notoriously cavernous ballpark, Kirby still managed to surrender an impressive one homerun per nine innings pitched, culminating in a 1.038 WHIP.
Now, let’s discuss the stuff. Kirby features a fastball (which, like we talked about, he paints effortlessly) while throwing in the upper-90’s. The four-seamer has produced a 32 run value over the last two seasons. Kirby throws his fastball nearly 40% of the time. 28% of the time, hitters are swinging through it.
On top of the elite precision inside the zone, Kirby has done a tremendous job of forcing hitters to chase outside the zone. He ranked in the 88th percentile in 2023 in chase rate. His command of the strikezone almost gives an aura of “Every pitch is going to be a strike” out of his hand.
Kirby will have some significant competition in 2024, including 2023 Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, Orioles ace-in-the-making Kyle Bradish, and ever-reliable Kevin Gausman, but I remain high on Kirby in 2024.
Texas Rangers: OF Adolis Garcia leads American League in RBI
This one was actually tougher than I expected from the defending World Series champions. The obvious is Corey Seager competes for the AL MVP. He did last year. I expect him to again in 2024. The other was Evan Carter winning AL RotY. He was sensational in the Postseason for the Rangers last year, and he’s likely a front runner, alongside the previously mentioned Holliday, in 2024.
But, to me, Garcia has become one of the most dangerous hitters in all of baseball. He’s not a secret weapon anymore. His name is known throughout the baseball world. He’s still the same hitter, though.
Garcia has hit 31, 27, and 39 homeruns in each of the last three season. He’s driven in 90, 101 and 107 over that same span.
As he enters his age-31 season, Garcia could be poised for the best season of his career.
Now, we know what Garcia is and what he is not. What he is not, is an average (batting, not his skillset) hitter. He’s yet to hit above .250 in a full season in the big leagues. He’s also struckout well over 500 times in the last three seasons. But that number has dipped each of the last three season, even if it’s ever so slightly. His strikeout rate has dropped from over 31% to just under 28%.
Now, lets discuss what he is. Garcia is pure power. His exit velocity has increased every season in MLB, as has his hard hit percentage. But more than the power, the self-discipline to adapt has been evident. His willingness to go opposite field has increased from 15% to over 18%, in 2023. He barreled up nearly 10% of the pitches he hit last season, and his hard hit percentage is just outside the top 20 across baseball.
Pair all this with the fact that the Texas Rangers should be one of the most potent lineups in all baseball in 2024, and you’ve got the makings of a potential career high in RBI for Garcia.
*In the next piece, we’ll move to the National League West*
