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A risk worth taking: Evaluating Owen Tippett and his new contract

Charlie O'Connor
Charlie O'Connor
January 26, 2024
A risk worth taking: Evaluating Owen Tippett and his new contract
Dec 2, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Flyers right wing Owen Tippett (74) moves the puck up ice against the Pittsburgh Penguins during the second period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

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Charlie O'Connor

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7 Comments (4 conversations)

Michael Perez

Michael Perez

January 27, 2024

I’m not much of a fan of the 8 year deal generally but do think that this deal has three things going for it that make it more palletable. 1. hes going to be 25 at start, not 28 or 30. 2. he’s basically getting paid what he’s worth now and still may have a little more to give 3. If what cap friendly reports is correct the trade protection is limited to a 10 team no trade list and only in the middle four years of the deal.

MarioD

MarioD

January 27, 2024

It’s a good deal. After bridging York and Frost they really had to start committing to some of these players.

Scott Ferry

Scott Ferry

January 27, 2024

I’m not an anti-stats guy, but I roll my eyes every time I see the words “Dom’s model”. His models always seemed to be heavily biased towards something. Now days I just skim past any references to them.

Scott Ferry Replying to Scott Ferry
Scott Ferry

Scott Ferry

January 27, 2024

To clarify, I appreciate stats enough that I pay for a die hard membership to this site just for Charlie’s heavily stats based analysis, but I don’t values Dom’s models at all.

Scott Ferry Replying to Scott Ferry
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
January 27, 2024

It’s a model highly correlated on the team level with wins and losses. It’s not perfect on the player level — I think it values point production more than it should — but it’s still pretty good. I believe Dom gets a lot of unfair charges of bias just because his model tends to like the Leafs, which is driven by the model’s bias towards teams with lots of offensive firepower, not his own fandom of the Leafs.

Charlie O'Connor Replying to Charlie O'Connor
Scott Ferry

Scott Ferry

January 28, 2024

I wasn’t saying that his models suffer from personal bias. Just that the models themselves seem to favor one thing or another that skew the conclusions that they make.

You even tend to list caveats when you reference them. Things like “Dom’s model tends to heavily value offensive numbers”.

etrain145

etrain145

January 27, 2024

Charlie I agree it’s a fair contract but it’s a shame the Flyers couldn’t get it under 6mil because that would have been amazing and this front office could use a win.

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