The official Phillies season preview

Are you ready to get hurt again?

Philadelphia’s professional baseball club starts its 142nd season on Friday. 140 of those seasons ended in disappointment, and odds are this one will as well.

The Phillies’ 2024 campaign could end as early as September 29th… Two NL East bottom dwellers are playing meaningless baseball in sparsely-attended Nationals Park. The Phils are losing. Bryce Harper steps to the plate with two outs in the ninth. The television broadcast picks up individual jeers from the DC crowd, but nobody’s watching anyway. “Certainly not the season we expected, John,” says Tom McCarthy. “You got that right,” the Krukker responds. Three strikes later, a 79-win season is finally, mercifully over.

Or.

The Phillies’ 2024 season could end in October… It’s Game Six of the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park. Light rain is falling in the freezing cold. The Phils trail the Dodgers three games to two, and the Fightins are down by a run in the ninth. Brandon Marsh hits a leadoff double. Johan Rojas moves Marsh to third with a sac bunt, and Kyle Schwarber walks. The camera pans the crowd and finds the usual suspects: a heavyset shirtless guy furiously swinging his rally towel; a young woman with her hands clasped over her face, silently praying; a group of kids excitedly jumping up and down. These fans–and about 45,000 others–quietly shuffle out of the ballpark after Trea Turner grounds into a double play.

Or.

The Phillies’ 2024 season could be one of the glorious exceptions to the rule… It’s Game Seven of the World Series. An unseasonably warm November night in South Philadelphia. The Phils lead the Yankees 4-3, and they’re one strike away from winning it all. Citizens Bank Park reaches decibel levels not yet heard on this planet as a sweeping slider leaves Orion Kerkering’s hand. Fans hold their breath for a moment, then explode as Juan Soto swings and misses. Fireworks light up the sky. Harper and JT Realmuto simultaneously tackle Kerkering on the mound. Their teammates aren’t far behind. Fans spill into the streets as Philadelphia celebrates its third World Series victory.

This is the time of year when baseball enthusiasts can let their imaginations run wild. Before the stress of November and October. Before the unforgiving September math ends postseason dreams. Before fans bake their skin in the August sun, enjoy All-Star festivities in July, or fall asleep to radio play-by-play on lazy June afternoons. Before players break out the pink bats for Mother’s Day in May. Before the most unfortunate teams fall ten games behind division leaders in April.

Before any of it, there’s the promise, the hope, and the absolute joy of Opening Day.

Play ball.

Breaking down the 2024 Phillies roster

Phillies fans aren’t delusional to dream about a championship this season. The roster may not match up to the super-teams in Los Angeles or Atlanta on paper, but it’s an exceptionally talented group that knows it can compete with those bastards in a short series.

This year’s squad features firepower throughout the lineup, a pair of horses atop the rotation, and a bullpen that some consider the best in baseball. The bench is solid and, for the first Opening Day in recent memory, even the defense looks great. The roster is filled with both veteran talent and young stars on the rise. There’s good clubhouse chemistry and the manager is better than most. Let’s break it down by position:

C: Analysts can debate whether Realmuto is still the best catcher in baseball, but there’s no question that he’s in the top tier–both offensively and defensively. He hit 20 home runs and posted a .762 OPS in a “down year” last season, and the Phils should be in very good shape if Realmuto rebounds to his 2022 form.

1B: Harper is of course expected to put up big numbers at the plate, and his athleticism makes it look like he’s been playing first base for years. The only remaining concern about Harper playing first is his body’s reaction to a full season of wear and tear. He missed some time this spring with back stiffness, an issue he’s grappled with in the past. But Rob Thomson says there’s no reason for concern.

2B: 25-year-old Bryson Stott took his game to another level last year, playing Gold Glove-caliber defense while raising his OPS from .653 in 2022 to .747 in 2023. And the Phils think Stott has the potential to make another leap.

3B: Alec Bohm enters his fifth major league season as one of the lineup’s more reliable bats in terms of making contact. He hit .280 in 2022 and .274 in 2023. Bohm’s 97 RBI trailed only Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos for the team lead in ’23, and he flashed newfound power, reaching 20 home runs in a season for the first time. Defensively, the third baseman has made tremendous progress every year.

SS: [In my best Jon Hamm voice] Trea Turner’s remarkable turnaround was one of the biggest Phillies stories of 2023. We all know about the standing ovation. But Turner’s post-ovation numbers are worth revisiting: .339/.391/.677 (1.069 OPS) after August 4, with 16 home runs in 47 games. While it’s unreasonable to expect those numbers over a full season, Turner is a career .296 hitter who batted .328 in 2022. He has put up an OPS over .900 in three separate seasons, and has averaged 24 HR and 42 SB per 162 games over nine years in the majors. Normal Trea Turner numbers will play just fine.

LF: Among Phillies regulars last season, only Bryce Harper had a higher OPS than Brandon Marsh’s .830. Marsh is more than capable of playing center field, and if he spends the majority of his time in left he’ll be one of the best fielders in the league at that position. Many MLB projections have Marsh regressing a bit this year, primarily due to his incredibly high success rate on balls in play: Marsh hit .397 when he put the ball in play and the major league average is usually close to .300. But even if he doesn’t have the same good fortune in 2024, the 26-year-old can mitigate any regression by continuing to refine his approach at the plate.

CF: Entering spring training, one of the biggest unknowns for this Phillies team was whether Johan Rojas will be able to handle major league pitching. And as the regular season begins, one of the biggest unknowns for this Phillies team is… whether Johan Rojas will be able to handle major league pitching. It’s not a stretch to say Rojas will likely be one of the very best defensive players in baseball. He’ll be valuable to the team even if he hits .200. But JoRo followed up a dreadful offensive performance in the 2023 postseason with a spring slash line of .170/.214/.264. “We can talk all we want about Rojas . . . If the top seven guys in our lineup don’t hit, that’s what’s gonna make the difference,” Dave Dombrowski recently said. And that’s true. But there’s a limit to how overmatched a major league player can look at the plate before it does long-term damage to his confidence. Let’s hope we don’t find out what that limit is.

RF: In 2023, Nick Castellanos rebounded from a nightmarish 2022 regular season in which he posted a .694 OPS with 13 HR. Castellanos started off strong last year, made the NL All-Star team, and ended up with a .788 OPS and 29 HR. The ’23 numbers are close to his career averages and, given the option, the Phils would take them again this year. They’d prefer less volatility, however, as Castellanos’ monthly OPS bounced wildly: .878 in March/April, .695 in May, .954 in June, .497 in July, .860 in August, and .817 in September/October.

DH: The Phillies know what to expect from Kyle Schwarber. He’ll bat around .200, hit 45-ish home runs, and walk a ton. Argue all you want about whether those numbers belong in the leadoff spot (and fans certainly will), but that’s a valuable player getting his job done. Barring something unexpected, Schwarber should also benefit from playing almost every game in the DH role.

Bench: Versatile three-time All-Star Whit Merrifield was the Phillies’ biggest addition of the offseason, and he should help the team in a variety of ways. He will make some starts in left field, could handle an everyday left field role if the Phillies want Marsh in center, provides insurance at second base in case Stott misses any time (or if Turner misses time and Stott slides to SS), and gives the team a great bat off the bench. Edmundo Sosa returns as a solid backup infielder. Cristian Pache is a talented defensive outfielder with upside at the plate, and if Rojas struggles the Phils could roll with a Merrifield/Marsh/Pache rotation in left and center. Garrett Stubbs will reprise his role as backup catcher, and to start the season he’ll be the only left-handed option off the bench.

SP: The Phils didn’t make a big splash in free agency this offseason, but they did extend Zack Wheeler’s contract and re-sign Aaron Nola. The duo is as good of a 1-2 punch as you’ll find in the majors, and they’ll sit atop the rotation for the foreseeable future. Ranger Suarez, meanwhile, dazzled in a full spring training after visa issues and injuries limited him to a handful of innings in previous years. Suarez’s numbers this spring: 4 G, 15 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 16 K. Taijuan Walker will start the season on the IL after experiencing some health issues in camp, making Cristopher Sanchez the number four starter for the time being. Spencer Turnbull will round out the rotation for now, testing the Phils’ depth at the position early.

RP: Relief pitchers can be unpredictable from year to year, but on paper the Phillies enter this season with a formidable group: Jose Alvarado is one of the best lefties in baseball; RHP Jeff Hoffman is coming off a surprisingly dominant 2023; LHP Gregory Soto and RHP Seranthony Dominguez both have big arms and experience closing out games; LHP Matt Strahm is trusted in high-leverage situations and can give the team multiple innings; and 22-year-old RHP Orion Kerkering (who will miss a bit of time to start the season due to a spring illness) may be the closer of the future. Righthanders Yunior Marte, Connor Brogdon, and Luis Ortiz are expected to play less prominent roles.

Phillies Madness winner

From a field of 64 of the top Phillies highlights of all time, voters on twitter took the 2008 World Series final out and Bedlam at the Bank to the final matchup.

Bedlam defeated the 1980 World Series final out along the way, but was no match for Brad Lidge’s legendary strikeout. The 2008 clip won with over 80% of the final vote.

Here’s how the Sweet Sixteen played out:

Maybe this time next year we’ll have some 2024 Phillies highlights in the mix.