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10 Comments (3 conversations)
eitheror
There should be a line of overall talent/skill at which you no longer offer a player a 7 or 8 year contract. No matter how good you think the relative value is, if the player isn’t above a certain skill level then you are incurring way too much tail risk (player regresses or gets injured) and not gaining any of the high end benefit(player way outperforms their contract). Signing players like Konecny and Tippett to 8 year deals even at a “Discount” is bad business. Those deals should only be reserved for true star players like Stone Panarin and Josi like you listed. You want to lock up the players with high upsides and the chance to way outperform their contract. No matter how much you love Tip and Konecny what are their ceilings? 35 goal wingers? Maybe they get to 40 if their shooting percentage spikes for a season? Maybe they break into the top 50 in points once or twice? Would it be so awful to say hey guys you only get 6 years? Why are we always handing out the max term?!
The Flyers have already made this mistake twice with Couturier and Sanheim who both were albatrosses the moment they signed their contracts(I know Charlie will defend the Coots contract but I still disagree). Tippett is next and then Konecny. Rebuilding teams should not be handing out these monster contracts to mid-tier players. There is always a CHANCE they will work out but they are not good bets to make. And when you start aggregating all those bets you are basically sure to lose. The Flyers need to unearth players on value contracts. Instead they consistently lock themselves into “market value” deals. The Seeler contract is another obvious example of this. Risto as well. What is the upside on any of these deals? Where are the value contracts on this team?
Charlie O'Connor
AuthorIf Tippett remains the player he is right now or takes a step forward, you’re going to be singing an entirely different tune on his contract in a couple years when the salary cap goes up.
I get the sense you’re still in a stagnant cap mindset. The NHL cap world is about to change dramatically — prepare yourself for it.
eitheror
When do you think hockey players peak? What aging curve to you subscribe to?
Charlie O'Connor
AuthorI think forwards usually peak around 23 – 26, and don’t really start a major dropoff until around age 30.
But I also think that the minds of many people have been warped a bit about the risk of signing a contract that lasts into the early 30s, because due to the stagnant cap over the past four years, teams haven’t been getting the big savings on the front end of their deals that they signed over the past 5-6 years, since the cap barely rose.
Signing long-term deals is a risk/reward equation. First, do you save enough on the front end to make up for the overpay on the back end, and second, are you as a team equipped to take advantage of that savings on the front end?
In recent years, the equation has been skewed against long-term deals more than normal, since cap stagnation has cut down on the front-end savings. But that’s going to change very quickly, which in my opinion over the next 2-3 years is going to change the way we tend to view these deals. The cap ceiling is going to go up FAST, and cap hits that look onerous today will look relatively low come 2027.
Charlie O'Connor
AuthorAnd Couturier wasn’t an albatross the minute he signed his contract. He was an albatross the minute he had two back surgeries. Which, of course, couldn’t have been predicted when he signed the deal.
Matt
I think the jury is still out on the Sanheim contract. If he continues to give us 20+ minutes of top 4 defense and gets even slightly better as he ages it will be a good contract overall.
Scott Ferry
The time to take a big swing on Sanheim was his previous contract. Doing the bridge deal for the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 seasons and then offering him an eight year deal was a huge mistake.
Charlie O'Connor
AuthorI think an eight-year contract for Sanheim may have made sense for SOME team. It certainly didn’t for the Flyers in 2022, though.
Well, they’re stuck with it now. Flyers just have to hope he ages well, and the 2023-24 version of Sanheim holds.
Chad
Thank you for answering my question. Yes. I clearly think the culture card is ridiculous – or at least that the real culture problem has been (and may or may not still be) from the top down.
To the long term contracts, I think you could argue that the Tavares contract was a disaster. He’s been productive, but they signed him for huge dollars at a position of strength. It has made it so they’ve been unable to focus their dollars on positions of greater need, holding them back from getting to “true competitor” status. I think TK falls into this category. They have lots of wingers. He’s a luxury that could be used to bring in a much more needed piece.
Charlie O'Connor
AuthorI would argue that Toronto has been a “true contender.” They’ve just flopped in the playoffs, which I personally think speaks more to the randomness of playoff results than proof that Toronto really isn’t that good of a team.