Beat back and forth: Eagles-Bucs preview, big games for Jalen Hurts and Jalen Carter, final predictions

Zach Berman and Bo Wulf trade emails each week previewing the Eagles’ upcoming game. Here is the transcript:

Berman; Bo:

I’m checking in from Seat 14B on my flight to Tampa, where the Eagles will visit Raymond James Stadium for the first time since the postseason in January 2022. Much has changed since that day. The Eagles are now the team considered heavyweights while the Bucs are the overachievers. 

Both teams are 2-0 entering Monday night. The Eagles will play without wide receiver Quez Watkins (hamstring) and running back Boston Scott (concussion). They’ll get back cornerback James Bradberry, safety Reed Blankenship, and running back Kenny Gainwell, who were all absent for last Thursday’s game. (It seems like ages since the Eagles last played!) 

The Bucs will play without first-round defensive tackle Calijah Kancey and linebacker SirVocea Dennis. Four notable players are questionable: defensive tackle Vita Vea, cornerback Carlton Davis, linebacker Devin White, and guard Cody Mauch.

The two big storylines entering this game for the Eagles seem to be improving a passing offense that is averaging only 162.5 yards through two games and how the Eagles will compensate for the absence of Avonte Maddox in the slot. 

What’s your read on both of those issues? And what’s the best matchup for the Eagles and the biggest concern? 

Wulf: I think both issues are legitimate. It’s obviously a small sample, but the Eagles ranked 19th in the league in EPA per dropback through the first two weeks of the season. They ranked seventh in the category in 2022 (which undersells how well they performed with Hurts at quarterback with games still competitive). It’s reasonable to expect the passing game to take some time to settle in with a new coordinator and it’s fair to give credit to Bill Belichick and Brian Flores for flummoxing Hurts as a passer. But Hurts is supposed to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league, he has three great weapons to throw to and one of the league’s best offensive lines protecting him. As good as Todd Bowles and the Bucs defense seem to be, this seems like something of an early litmus test. If they can run the ball as effectively as they did against the Vikings, great. Absent that, if the Eagles struggle throwing the ball again, I think we can definitively say this year’s offense does not yet have the same upside as last year’s. 

On defense, nickel is an issue. Unlike linebacker and, to a lesser degree, safety, nickel cornerback is a position the Eagles value. Replacing Maddox will be difficult, but Maddox’s injury history also means this is something for which they should have a contingency plan. Mario Goodrich got the first shot last week and struggled, especially against Justin Jefferson. That was to be expected. With Bradberry returning, Sean Desai has the option of putting Bradberry inside and keeping Josh Jobe on the outside if need be. Maybe Sydney Brown figures into the mix as well. Chris Godwin has played less in the slot than usual for the Bucs over the first two weeks, but I’m sure they’ll cycle both he and Mike Evans inside this week in search of favorable matchups. 

What’s your sense of the Eagles’ nickels coach in all of this? I’m sort of torn on whether delineating the responsibilities of outside cornerbacks and inside cornerbacks is good because the requirements of the job are so different or if it’s counterproductive because everyone should be cross-trained anyway. Goodrich made the team because he was the backup nickel, but he was also probably seventh on the pecking order of cornerbacks in quality. Would it have been better to give Eli Ricks or Kelee Ringo or Jobe more time in the slot? Most likely, the differentiated position coach has more to do with bringing people onto the staff than it does a change in coaching philosophy, right? 

What other players are on your radar for this game? I know you love a homecoming story. 

Berman: I hear your point about how every cornerback must be cross-trained, although I do agree with the sentiment that these are different positions that require specialized skill sets. Some players’ skills and agility are better on the boundary than in the slot. So I’m not opposed to a specific coach, and my sense is Ronell Williams is not replacing defensive backs coach D.K. McDonald as much as he’s supplementing him. But you are correct that it’s another way to add a coach to the staff. 

It’s low-hanging fruit to say I’m watching Hurts closely this week, although this is a fascinating week for the Eagles quarterback. We’re talking about the Eagles’ passing game entering a week against Tampa Bay, who famously forced Hurts into one of the worst games of his career in that postseason loss two years ago. Hurts completed only 53.3 percent of his pass attempts and threw two interceptions, and NFL Films caught a Bucs assistant telling his players, “This guy can’t read… He’s gonna give us a couple.” Hurts showed last season the strides he made as a passer, and nobody would reasonably question Hurts’ ability to read defenses. But opposing coaches have spent the offseason trying to devise ways to slow Hurts down, and the middling production through two games requires a counterpunch from Hurts. I believe he has it in him and the back-of-the-card numbers at the end of the season will look around what we expected. He’s also not one who seems to forget any slight, real or perceived. That clip from January 2022 was real, and Todd Bowles is one of the best defensive schemers in the NFL.

“I think I’m wired to give my best and play to my standard,” Hurts said. “But a little extra inspiration never hurts.”

Also, Jalen Carter is playing closer to his hometown of Apopka, Fla. than any time in his NFL career (unless Orlando gets a team…). Carter has been a force through two games. He’s been credited by Pro Football Focus with 12 pressures, which trails only Aidan Hutchinson and Cameron Jordan in the website’s rankings. The Bucs are vulnerable on the interior, yet Baker Mayfield has only been sacked once this season and is completing a league-best 87 percent of his pass attempts on third downs. The Eagles need to rattle Mayfield, and interior pressure will be their best chance to do so. 

Speaking of which, is that the biggest mismatch in the game?

Wulf: Unless the Eagles are letting Godwin and Evans consistently line up opposite Goodrich, I agree the Eagles’ defensive line against the Bucs’ interior offensive line is the biggest mismatch. Part of the reason Mayfield hasn’t been sacked is because of how quickly he’s been getting rid of the ball. But we saw how feckless the Vikings’ interior defensive line is last week and the Bears’ group is no better, so it’s not as if the Bucs have been tested up-front. If this is going to turn into a lopsided Eagles victory, it’s likely to come from another dominant performance from Carter, Jordan Davis, Fletcher Cox and Milton Williams. 

As for Hurts, I’m thinking about it along the same line of the way I’m thinking about the game for the Eagles as a whole. If we’re chalking up his first two games to “Week 1 is weird” and “Brian Flores did some weird stuff,” then let’s see him play at a Pro Bowl level this week with the extended lead-up. If he struggles again, maybe this season will be a little more of a slog to get through than anticipated. 

Those Bucs injuries are also worth considering. If Vea can’t play, for instance, then the Eagles should be able to lean on their run game nearly as much as they did against the Vikings when they played that game like three months ago or whatever it was. If Carlton Davis is out, either Brown or Smith will have a chance for a big game. 

Before we get to predictions, any takeaways from the rest of the action league-wide on Sunday? Did you already know Kyzir White was a captain for the Cardinals? 

Berman: Based on the game action today, I can say I have October 22 circled on my schedule. That visit from the Dolphins should be fun. I’m typing this with the Cowboys game on the screen in front of me. Jonathan Gannon’s team is plucky, huh? White, a captain, had a critical interception. And K’Von Wallace, of all people, had a big pass breakup. (I’m still shocked by that result.)

As for my prediction: When we drafted teams on the PHLY Eagles Podcast earlier this week, the discrepancy at quarterback and on the offensive line was clear. That will be the difference in this game. Hurts needs to rebound and there’s no doubt Todd Bowles will try to muddy the picture for him, but this is where Hurts’ talent combined with a high-level offensive line and elite skill players will make the difference. The Eagles will get A.J. Brown early touches and Hurts finds a rhythm. It won’t be an offensive onslaught because the Bucs can make life difficult, but the Eagles’ pass rush should make Mayfield sweat — especially Carter. The Eagles advance to 3-0 entering next week’s game against Washington. Eagles 27, Buccaneers 20

Wulf: It would be great for Eagles fans to see the 2022 version of the team show up tonight. The Bucs defense is very good – arguably better than the Patriots one we saw in Week 1 – and Bowles has something of a book on Hurts. But the Eagles’ trio of pass-catchers and their dominance up-front should matter. On the other side, I do think the Bucs should be able to move the ball through the air. Evans and Godwin will have their advantages and even though Cade Otton and Trey Palmer are unproven, we know the Eagles are vulnerable in the middle of the field. The other mismatch worth mentioning is the Eagles’ run defense against a Bucs rushing offense that is among the worst in the league. Any time Mayfield gives the ball to Rachaad White will be a win for the visitors. I feel a little better about this matchup than I did when we made predictions on the Friday show, but I’ll stick to that one for now (tune into the pre-game show at 6:30 to see if I reverse course). I just have a feeling things aren’t quite what they seem at the moment. Bucs 26, Eagles 23