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8 Comments (4 conversations)
guadzilla
Excellent approach, Fran, However, i dont follow a couple of things about the AAV:
Is this based on a prediction of what the player’s future contract would be (based on current salary levels)? That’s what i would expect that number to be, as is probably the most objective measure of a player’s “worth” to a team.
But if so, i dont understand placing QBs and LBs in the same set of price tiers. A $12MM LB is a very good player. A $12MM QB, not so much. They shouldn’t be in the same tier.
So that would indicate that this AAV is not using projected salary as a proxy for skill/impact but just your general assessment on how much they value they add to the team. That would make it a very arbitrary scale, though. Eg, why 8/14/23?
My apologies if i am missing something.
Fran Duffy
Author@guadzilla
Basically when I think about the player’s projection and the type of player I expect him to be (role/talent level/impact), I’m able to look and see who the players are that are currently match that at each position, and quickly see what AAV bucket they fall into – so yes, your assumption is right! I’ve talked with several people about this over the years – have talked about using Guaranteed Dollars on a contract or % of the Cap or any of a number of other things, but this is the cleanest/easiest number to use. Perfect? No – but it’s close. Just requires me to tweak the tier levels every spring post-draft after the rise of the salary cap every season.
As far as why the scales of 8/14/23/etc – before I ever attached salaries to this I kept a Pro Board just to have a way to think about prospects and their transition to the league. Good way to bucket players and see the types of guys that fit into each role. When I decided to attach the salary component, I saw where the tiering kind of naturally happened. Essentially it became a median price point, but I was surprised at how uniform it was.
And yeah – re: ‘VALUE’ vs ‘SKILL’ – I think that’s the important point, right? Goes back to how I set it up – if you have a generational prospect at kicker – is he the #1 player on the board because of his skill/talent level? Nope. Other guys are slotted ahead of him because of value. I look at it the same way.
There are currently 15 QBs in the $40 million tier, with at least two more (Jayden Daniels, CJ Stroud and potentially Brock Purdy) waiting in the wings. There is just one non-QB in that tier (Myles Garrett)
There are currently 5 more QBs in the $23 million tier and another in the $18 million tier
Veteran backup QBs routinely end up in that $8 million bucket – Jimmy G, Gardner Minshew, Marcus Mariota, Jacoby Brissett. We just saw Daniel Jones sign for 14. That puts that tier of player in the same bucket as starting corners, guards, running backs, linebackers, etc etc etc. Across the board, the NFL tells us that they value that role higher than others, so if I project a guy to be the 20th-best starting QB in the NFL or the 35th-best starting QB in the NFL or even the 43rd-best starting QB in the NFL (all made up numbers, but you catch my drift), then that guy’s ranking should reflect that, in my opinion.
guadzilla
Sorry i missed replying to this – but thank you for the detailed reply.
Billy Winchester
Thank you so much for all the work you do, Fran. This is awesome!
You may not be Zach’s favorite, but you definitely are mine lol
Fran Duffy
AuthorThank you, Billy!
Michael Minarich
This is such a wild way to think about the draft and resource allocation. Thanks for the insight!
Fran Duffy
AuthorThanks Michael!
James
Nailed it Fran. Always enjoy your insight.