It’s a busy day at the NovaCare Complex after a disastrous start to the week — and, for that matter, a disastrous month in franchise history. The players are in the building for exit interviews, to clean out their lockers, and tie up any administrative details before heading off for the non-playing season.

Let’s call it the “non-playing season” because the Eagles definitely aren’t off. There’s much to be sorted through after the postseason exit, and the most pressing question is whether Nick Sirianni remains head coach after this collapse. If Sirianni stays for Year 4, what does his staff look like? 

Here are five quick thoughts on the Sirianni situation with Sirianni due to meet with Jeffrey Lurie this week:

1. One cold reality about what’s taking place: This is not about “deserve.” Because whatever emotions you feel after watching the collapse, a coach with a .667 winning percentage and three postseason appearances in three years (not to mention a Super Bowl appearance) doesn’t “deserve” to be fired. There should be some established equity. 

But “deserve” is not how Lurie operates. Want evidence? Lurie’s own words. This is what he said in January 2021 upon firing Doug Pederson: “It’s not based on: Does someone deserve to hold their job or deserve to get fired? That’s a different bar. Very few people probably after success deserve to lose their job.”

The decision is about the vision for where the organization must go, and the confidence in Sirianni’s fitness to execute the vision. Those are two critical variables, and they’re different. On the first, the Eagles clearly need changes after losing six of seven games (including the postseason). They were the worst football team during that period, or at least among the worst. So what does that change look like? And even if Lurie agrees with what that looks like, Lurie must maintain confidence that Sirianni can enact those changes and build on the success of these first three years. Sirianni has proven he can win at a high level. But he won’t keep his job based on what he did in 2022. It must be based on what can do in 2024 (and beyond). 

2. Change for change’s sake is also not an advisable path. At least from my view, you don’t disrupt an entire organization because you’re mad about the way a season ended and want to hold someone responsible. It must be because you think there’s someone better equipped to lead the franchise. That’s where you might hear the argument about this year’s coaching class. It’s important to note that Lurie takes particular pride (and has a proven track record) in hiring head coaches, and his three best hires were neither the “hot candidate” on any lists nor interviewed elsewhere during the search. Of course, he landed on Doug Pederson and Sirianni after other targets went elsewhere. But the decisions that matter are the decisions you make.

The Eagles are also in a unique situation relative to Lurie’s other coaching changes. Every other search was coming off a losing season and the Eagles were due for a reset of sorts. Even in 2016, when the Eagles had a seven-win team and considerable young talent, the ambiguous state at quarterback (Sam Bradford was a pending free agent) didn’t make the team a Super Bowl contender from Day 1. This is different. The Eagles have a franchise quarterback. They have high-end talent on offense. They have potential building blocks on defense. This is more of a turn-key operation. So if the Eagles make a change, it would be interesting to pursue a short-term fix (a la Bill Belichick, or another established head coach) rather than hiring for the “coach you could become,” as he once told Sirianni. Of course, all of Lurie’s hires made the postseason within two years. So it should be as simple as hire a good coach and trust that he/she can win.

3. Sirianni is similar to Pederson — and, to an extent, Reid — in this reality: Much focus goes to your initial staff, but how you do supplement your staff after defections? The Eagles lost both coordinators after Sirianni’s second season. Pederson lost his offensive coordinator after his second season. I’ve spoken to both of those coaches about staff development and the importance of supplementing a coaching staff, but it’s an inexact science. Unless the replacement is following someone who’s fired — and when that happens, the head coach likely isn’t doing well — then the replacement must deal with the shadow of the predecessor and a lineup used to a certain operation. 

If Sirianni stays, rebuilding the staff will be critical. And Lurie and Howie Roseman will presumably have strong opinions. The Eagles’ offense did not do a good enough job maximizing the talent and evolving after 2022. Sirianni will tell you he’s in charge of the offense. So the adjustments to the offense, whether it’s scheme or play-calling, are paramount. 

On defense, there will clearly be a major shakeup. And it’s needed in a bad way. But there are obstacles here, such as the fact that Sirianni replaced Sean Desai after 13 games and, if Sirianni returns, what kind of stability does he have? If you’re a hot coordinator candidate, you might be more inclined to go with a first-year offensive coach. My view: stop chasing a scheme or style of play. Hire the best defensive coach you can find and trust that he/she knows how to build a defense. (And if you’re chasing a trend, you’re usually too late.) 

4. Jalen Hurts’ role in this cannot be ignored. He’s the franchise player, signed one of the biggest deals in NFL history, and is the most important figure in the organization. His view matters. Hurts had a chance after the game to offer an endorsement for his head coach. It was lukewarm, at best.

“I didn’t know he was going anywhere,” Hurts said when asked if Sirianni should stay.

“I have a ton of confidence in everyone in this building,” Hurts said when asked about his confidence in Sirianni.

As someone who’s been at almost every Hurts press conference for the past three years, I can say that it’s clear Hurts tries to take a certain approach with these press conferences. Maybe it’s the “rat poison” view of the media from his time with Alabama, but he’s not going to buttress any narrative that’s not his own. And that’s his prerogative. You can say he doesn’t owe reporters anything, and that’s fine; I’d argue he owes it to Sirianni — if he wants to support Sirianni, that is. Hurts’ words carry weight. They can offer oxygen. He bypassed that chance after the game. He allowed Sirianni to fall on the sword after the interception at the end of the Seattle game. The perspective Hurts offers behind closed doors will be important.

5. The timeline of any decision is important to monitor, too. There are end-of-season meetings that must take place. Those meetings were when Lurie ultimately determined to move on from Pederson. That put the Eagles behind on the coaching search. League rules have changed since, pushing the calendar back for when teams can conduct in-person interviews. Interviews must be virtual before Jan. 21. However, those rules are only applicable for coaches employed by other teams So out-of-work coaches, whether it’s Bill Belichick or Mike Vrabel or Leslie Fraizer, are free to interview in person. It’s also important to note that there must be at least two in-person interviews with minority candidates. This is a way of saying, coaching searches are often not as expedited as they once were. (And that’s a good change!) However, if you want a coach who’s out of work at the moment, there could be an understandable rush.

6. So what they should the Eagles do? This is a tough call. Unless you’re in the room with Sirianni and Lurie debriefing what happened and determining how to fix it, you’re operating from an information deficit. As stated above, Sirianni doesn’t “deserve” to be fired. He’s a good coach and leader. His 2021 coaching job was outstanding — he displayed an ability to evolve, the humility to cede responsibilities, and the team clearly responded to his messaging. 

His 2022 job was exemplary in different ways — Hurts became one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, both units continued to adjust, the game management and situational football were strong, and the messaging worked.

But this season was bad — even with 11 wins. Most notably, the decision to change defensive coordinators backfired worse than any in-season coaching change I’ve ever seen. They regressed on both sides of the ball. The game management and situational football have left much to be desired. And the messaging hasn’t worked late in the year; the team failed to respond. 

All of that can be taken into account, but this decision cannot be about 2021-22 or even 2023. It must be about the vision and the ability to fix this.