Familiar concerns for the Phillies early on

After losing four of six home games to start the season, the Phillies travel to DC for three games against the Nationals this weekend. The series represents a chance to get right against a team the Phils have dominated in recent years.

It’s a sorely needed opportunity. With 156 games to play, there’s no reason for the Phillies or their fans to panic. But just about anything that was a concern during the team’s 2023 NLCS collapse or throughout spring training remains a concern. For example:

Johan Rojas

Rojas is on the major league club for his defense and expectations for his bat are low. He needs to do something at the plate, however, even batting ninth in the lineup. Rojas hit .093/.114/.163 in 45 postseason plate appearances in ’23, then .170/.214/.264 in 56 spring training PAs. So despite the small sample size, it’s disconcerting to see him hitting .067/.176/.067 in 17 PAs to start the regular season.

Rojas hasn’t even put a ball in play beyond the infield.

“We can talk all we want about Rojas . . . If the top seven guys in our lineup don’t hit, that’s what’s gonna make the difference,” said Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski in March before leaving Clearwater. He’s right, but that leads us to our next concern.

The top seven guys

To get by with an automatic out at the bottom of the lineup, the Phillies need the rest of their regulars to hit well. But early on, too many of the guys Dombrowski likely considered part of that “top seven” are struggling. In 94 combined plate appearances, four of the seven have dismal numbers:

• Trea Turner- .217/.308/.217, 0 HR
• Alec Bohm- .238/.273/.286, 0 HR
• Bryson Stott- .222/.364/.278, 0 HR
• Nick Castellanos- .150/.292/.150, 0 HR

Castellanos, in particular, looks lost early on. His 2024 whiff rate of 46.7% is much higher than his career 30.4% mark. And it’s damn near double the average MLB rate of 24.8%.

The other three bats in the top seven are playing well: Bryce Harper exploded for three home runs on Tuesday, Kyle Schwarber is hitting .280 with a couple bombs, and JT Realmuto has a respectable .794 OPS.

Dombrowski probably considered Brandon Marsh the eighth guy when making his remarks. Marsh is hitting .333/.333./.667. Whit Merrifield, probably another “eighth” guy, is at .143/.250/.143.

It all adds up to… not enough. The Phillies are expected to mash, and sooner or later they will. If they expect to battle Atlanta for the division, however, they’ll need to avoid a sluggish April. Because the Braves have proven that they can bury the Phils early.

Bullpen depth

The Phillies have some great arms at the top of their bullpen. But starters don’t pitch many innings in today’s MLB, and a ‘pen can get taxed quickly. It’s how manager Rob Thomson found himself choosing between struggling Connor Brogdon (now DFA’d) and Nick Nelson (best utilized in low-leverage, multi-inning situations) in the tenth inning of Monday’s loss to the Reds.

Ricardo Pinto made a nice spot-appearance for the Phillies in Tuesday’s win. And Orion Kerkering, slowed by illness in spring training, is expected to join the major league club soon. But a team that seemed like it was one bullpen arm short in the 2023 NLCS feels like it is still missing that arm.

Baserunning and defense

If you’re not hitting well, and you’re not pitching well, then you certainly can’t make baserunning mistakes and defensive miscues and expect to win baseball games. But familiar concerns are popping up in those areas of the game as well.

On the basepaths, Rojas, Stott, and Castellanos have already been picked off base. There have also been some head-scratching decisions, like Casty trying to stretch a routine single into a double and getting thrown out by a mile. These are the types of mistakes that just kill an inning.

And while defense was supposed to be a strength for the 2024 Phillies, they’re currently tied for the third-most errors in baseball. They also rank in the bottom third of the league in advanced defensive metrics such as Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved.

If you’re looking for a silver lining, the Phillies’ 2-4 start is better than last year’s 1-5 start. The Phils started 2-4 in 2008, and the 1980 team went 6-9 in April.

So we absolutely do not know the 2024 story yet, and we won’t for some time. But some of the issues we’re seeing are all too familiar, and it will take some work to right the ship.

The Phillies and Nationals are scheduled to get started at 6:45 p.m. on Friday.

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