Five takeaways from the Phillies / Tigers series

The Phillies took a quick trip to Detroit this week, winning two of three against a mediocre Tigers squad. Nola threw seven strong innings and the offense collected 15 hits in an 8-1 win on Monday. The bats fell silent on Tuesday against Tigers lefthander Tarik Skubal, who is having a fantastic season (9-3, 2.32 ERA). But the Phils bounced back on Wednesday with a 6-2 victory.

Five takeaways from the series:

1. Bryce Harper is putting together another MVP campaign.

As recently as April 28, Harper was hitting .234 with an OPS under .800. By May 28, he improved his average to .267 with a .901 OPS. And as June draws to a close, Harper has a healthy .305 average with a .987 OPS. He also has 20 home runs on the season. In the Tigers series, Harper went six for 13 with three doubles and two home runs.

It’s enough to get the MVP chants ringing through Citizens Bank Park again. But will Harper chase down Shohei Ohtani, who is hitting .320/.398/.634 (1.032 OPS) with 24 HR? Sports books currently give Ohtani slightly shorter odds (-120) than Harper (+170) to win the award. Freddie Freeman (+1700), Marcell Ozuna (+2100). and Ketel Marte (+3000) round out the top five.

There’s still a lot of baseball left to play, but Harper should get the nod if his numbers stay within shouting distance of Ohtani’s. No DH-only player has ever won the award in the past. Harper gives the Phillies Gold Glove level defense at first base while Ohtani watches most of each game from the bench. Ohtani has a higher WAR, a metric that tries to quantify both offensive and defensive value. But WAR doesn’t factor in the value of Harper freeing up his team’s DH spot for Schwarber, keeping a better glove in left field.

Ohtani is a freak of nature and it’s a shame that he is unable to pitch this season. But Bryce Harper is the National League’s most valuable player.

2. Aaron Nola will be just fine.

The Atlanta Braves lit Nola up in his first start of the season, but from March 31 through June 12 the righthander posted a 2.25 ERA and the Phillies won 11 of his 12 starts.

Nola had another clunker on June 13 in Boston, serving up eight runs on eleven hits in just 3.2 innings. But he registered a quality start in his next outing (June 13 vs. San Diego), then allowed just one run in Monday’s win. We’ve seen much more of “good Nola” than “bad Nola” through 16 starts in 2024, and it’s shaping up to be a great season for the longest-tenured Phillie on the roster.

Even factoring in his two disastrous outings, Nola sports a 3.39 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP this season. Both of those figures are below his career numbers (3.70 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), and would be enough to make him the ace of many MLB rotations. The Phillies just happen to have three starters–Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Cristopher Sanchez–with an ERA under 3.00, making Nola look a little off in comparison.

As long as Nola keeps his WHIP low, home run balls won’t kill him. Expect him to keep churning out great starts in the second half of the season.

3. The Phillies continue to take care of business against weaker teams.

Say it with me… “All wins look the same in the standings.”

The Phillies have a trip to Atlanta coming up July 5 through July 7, and the Dodgers will visit Citizens Bank Park a couple days later. We should see some fantastic baseball against two of the best teams in the NL.

Whether the Phils go 6-0 or 0-6 in those games, however, they’ll still be a lock to reach the postseason. Baseballreference.com gives the Phillies a “>99.9%” chance to go to the playoffs. They put themselves in such an envious position by beating up on inferior teams–exactly what they did against the Tigers this week.

The Braves and Dodgers will provide a nice measuring stick for the Phils. But short of bragging rights and some “power ranking” ramifications, the games are no more important than the ones the Phillies will play against the Marlins, Cubs, Athletics, and Pirates in July.

The Phillies banked two more wins in Detroit, and they’ll look exactly the same in the W column as their wins against anyone else.

4. The Phils bullpen doesn’t get enough love.

Between a star-studded lineup and one of the best rotations in baseball, the Phillies bullpen sometimes doesn’t get enough recognition. Some of that is just the nature of the job for relief pitchers. They are expected to hold a lead or keep a game close, and they get noticed the most when they implode. Jose Alvarado has held the opposition scoreless in nine of his last eleven appearances, for example, and on Wednesday’s PHLY Phillies podcast we actually discussed whether fans should be worried about him.

The finale of the Tigers series is the latest example of the bullpen flexing its muscles. Spencer Turnbull exited the game after three innings because of shoulder soreness. (As of Wednesday night the severity of his injury is still unclear.) But the Phillies didn’t miss a beat, as Gregory Soto, Jose Ruiz, Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Jeff Hoffman pitched a scoreless inning each. Alvarado allowed one harmless run in the ninth, with the game well in hand.

For the season, the Phillies bullpen as a unit is top-five in the majors in ERA (3.31), top-five in the NL in WHIP (1.21), and top-five in the NL in Batting Average Against (.233). No bullpen in the majors has served up fewer home runs than the Phils (18) and only the Braves ‘pen has walked fewer batters (83). Each of Kerkering, Hoffman, and Strahm has an ERA under 2.00. Guys like Soto, Ruiz, and Seranthony Dominguez would be forced into high-leverage roles on many teams.

Like anyone else, the Phillies wouldn’t mind adding a bullpen arm before the trade deadline. But if it doesn’t happen, this will still be an outstanding group.

5. Staying healthy matters more than almost anything.

Earlier in the season, when absolutely everything was clicking for the Phillies during a long win streak, I asked manager Rob Thomson if there was anything he still worried about. “Staying healthy,” Thomson quickly replied. It was a good answer.

Turnbull’s early exit in Wednesday’s game is a reminder of how quickly a player’s fortunes can change. The Phillies have more depth than most teams, which helped them weather injuries to Taijuan Walker, Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh, and J.T. Realmuto. But another injury could strike at any time.

If it happens, other NL contenders won’t shed tears for the Fightins. Every team has injuries of its own. The Braves lost Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuna, Jr early this season, for example. The Dodgers’ Mookie Betts recently fractured his left hand.

“Next man up” has been the Phillies’ mantra all season long. If Turnbull misses time, Michael Mercado will likely fill in as the team’s fifth starter until Turnbull or Walker returns. And the Phils will probably keep rolling.

In the postseason, however, the Phillies will have to be near full strength to win the World Series. Facing the best of the best, they will need a healthy Realmuto in the lineup, not Garrett Stubbs or Rafael Marchan. They will need a healthy Turner, even though Edmundo Sosa did a tremendous job while Turner was out. More than anything, they will need a healthy starting rotation and a healthy Harper.

There’s no surefire way to avoid injuries, of course. But a few things would help: maintaining a comfortable division lead all season, resting players frequently, and locking up a postseason berth as early as possible.

Winning the Tigers series gets the Phillies one step closer to all of that.

Next up

The Phillies return home on Thursday for a four-game series against the Marlins. Zack Wheeler (9-4, 2.73 ERA) is scheduled to start the opener against Miami LHP Trevor Rogers (1-8, 4.90 ERA).