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7 Comments (3 conversations)
Jeff Kirsch
Love this new format Charlie – as a diehard, it would be amazing if you’re able to do this after every game. Please and thank you 😉.
Charlie O'Connor
AuthorCurrent gameplan is to try. Only games I wouldn’t do it for are games where we have some sort of PHLY watchalong/watch party event. That’s just too much for one day to add an article in as well.
xoffsetx
Awesome
guadzilla
“Natural Stat Stick’s model believed Kolosov should have allowed 1.83 goals based on the quality of shots he faced.”
Do you – or anyone in the comments section – have any idea how this number is derived? How do they determine quality of shots and likelihood of going in? I checked their site but no actual info is given.
Charlie O'Connor
AuthorYeah. They judge the quality of each unblocked shot (so SOG + missed shots) for its historical likelihood of becoming a goal. Mostly based off location and rush/rebound factors. Then they add everything up.
So if a shot from the low slot is deemed to be a goal 14% of the time, that goal gets an xG value of 0.14. And so on, and so on.
guadzilla
Gotcha, thanks. That makes sense. I kinda went into a bit of a rabbit hole with digging into all the papers Evolving Hockey has on their website, and the models that tried to take “shooting talent” into account, before sanity and self-preservation kicked in.
Going back to the article – your successor at the other place has an article about Kolosov not being an NHL goalie, and it’s a valid point. I dont mind that part, though – stealth tank and you get to see what you have with these two.
There is one thing I have noticed about this team that seems worse than last year – their execution. They seem to making a greater number of passes that are not on target, they dont seem to be winning as many pucks along the boards compared to last year and there is virtually no creativity in their offense.
A good example: a player drives to the net and the forward that’s supposed to provide support (either to receive a pass or crash the net for rebounds) messes up their positioning and/or timing significantly. IE, they aren’t in the proper place to receive a pass, or they crash the net too early/too late, and miss the rebound.
It’d be interesting to see if there is any data to support this.
Bob MCH
With the mediocre talent this team has, they have hit their ceiling. Yet, their mediocre record means they will get mediocre draft picks again in the 2025 draft. This team desperately needs elite talent, a half dozen of them, and is nowhere near achieving that necessary state for a cup. Really hard to get excited about their day in and day out mediocrity. It would be more hopeful if they would lose out, as we would know help is on the way through top draft picks. Danny has not shown he knows how to do the trades that bring in elite talent. The Drysdale trade was a loser. He has to find a way to fleece someone and get a stud talent to add to Michkov. This is going to be a long 10 year rebuild before a cup comes to Philly. What is there to get excited about? That some third liner might have a couple of great games and give the delusion that they could become a second liner? Oh boy. I wonder how long before Michkov demands a trade outta here so he can play with elite talent and go for a cup? My problem is, Torts has no business being the coach of a team trying to acquire elite talent, as his outstanding coaching will lift the, far out of the top of the draft every year he is here, working against their number one need, elite top five draft picks. Brutal strategy.