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Breaking down the Konecny extension — good move or mistake?

Charlie O'Connor
Charlie O'Connor
July 25, 2024
Breaking down the Konecny extension — good move or mistake?
Oct 26, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Flyers right wing Travis Konecny (11) celebrates a goal against the Minnesota Wild in the first period at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-USA TODAY Sports

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Charlie O'Connor

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13 Comments (5 conversations)

Bob MCH

Bob MCH

July 25, 2024

Nice they have their playoff-cup-level second line wing locked up at top dollar, and no ability to trade him for 6 years. Now Briere and company have to work on finding their first line center, and another first line wing to go with MM, and figure out how to fit them under the cap, and find them outside the draft, since they will make the playoffs next year and will not have a lottery draft pick for a decade to find those critical first line pieces. Good luck with that task Briere and Jonesy. If the goal is make the playoffs every year, but not be a serious contender for the cup, then this move works nicely.

Bob MCH Replying to Bob MCH
luketd

luketd

July 26, 2024

If you dont think Konecny is a 1st line wing then you wont ever believe anything

luketd Replying to luketd
Bob MCH

Bob MCH

July 27, 2024

Oh, he is a first liner on this team, a non-cup contender, but on a contender for the cup, he is a second liner IMO. Nice player, no doubt, but not elite, not a superstar, therefore, not a first liner for a cup contender.

Bob MCH

Bob MCH

July 25, 2024

The other aspect of analyzing if this was a good move by the Flyers or not is the issue, what could they have gotten back if they traded him this offseason? If they could have procured a high probability top 10 pick in next year’s draft for him, would they not have been better off trading him for that pick, to acquire a potential first line talent that lines up with the age of MM and other young prospects, so they all hit their prime at the same time? TK will likely not be in his prime when the new young core group arrives. Heck, half that elite young core group isn’t even in the pipeline yet. So why not trade him for a potential elite superstar piece that would fit their new young core age group, primarily MM? Their three first round picks in next year’s draft will likely all be in the 20 to 30 range, a place where elite superstars are not typically acquired. So wouldn’t they have been better off trading TK, and even throwing in one of the three late first round picks coming in 2025 for a high probability lottery pick in 2025? Look, Torts will have this team in the playoffs next year. He missed it by one game, so by adding MM to this roster, it is a stone-cold lock that Torts will get them there next year. Likely a first round and out situation in the playoffs, so they pick in the 20’s in the 2025 draft with their own pick, and once again miss getting an elite prospect through the draft. It appears to me Briere and Jonesy are half in, half out, with this rebuild, and are not taking the necessary steps to get elite young players in the draft (those that arrive in the first 5 or 10 picks of round one). This appears to me to be a strategy that will simply lead to long-term mediocrity, and not a cup.

Bob MCH Replying to Bob MCH
Michael Perez

Michael Perez

July 26, 2024

Love the player, the contract I have similar concerns, and agree that a rebuilding team trades the asset. What I disagree with is the premise that this is a playoff team because we added michkov. No torts team will ever truly bottom out, but this is the team that finished last season, not the one that started last season. Looking at the aggregate outcome and saying we missed by one game misses the forest through the trees. I am convinced this is the tank year. We can’t fill out margins due to no cap, we have no proven starting goalie or backup goalie, we have a new superstar whose likely to give up a ton while on the ice and our defense is still a work in progress. I went into last season thinking we would draft between 8 and 12. This season I have us finishing between 5 and 9. Again no torts team is going to bottom out, but this team is not better in paper than last years even with michkov.

Michael Perez Replying to Michael Perez
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
July 26, 2024

A lot of it really comes down to goaltending. I think the quality of their on-ice play in terms of the skaters is going to be fine, if unspectacular (aside from hopefully Michkov). But the goaltending is a total unknown. If it’s good or even average, I suspect they’ll be around the playoff bubble. But it could plausibly be REALLY bad, too. And if it is, yeah, they’ll be picking top-10 easy.

Charlie O'Connor Replying to Charlie O'Connor
Michael Perez

Michael Perez

July 27, 2024

Charlie, that’s fair to say, but if we are gonna bet whether our Goalies are above or below league average, what side of that bet do you want? I’d want the under all day. Errson could hit average if he has a sound system in front of him. Fedotov would need the greatest summer of coaching ever to make it to acceptable backup level. Add in that our center depth no better than last year, michkov gonna weaken support at least at first and our defense is our defense, I’ll take that under league average bet all day. thanks for the reply.

Matt

Matt

July 26, 2024

I was squarely on the trade TK at the deadline side of the argument. However, I keep hearing that we should get a top 10 pick back for him. The issue is that no teams buying at the deadline have top 10 picks to trade.

If we traded TK it would have been for another later round 1st, prospect with upside, and a current nhl player. The hope is that a contending team has an undervalued prospect that can’t crack the contending club. That’s the value.

Also, adding another late 1st give us immense trading power to trade down into the top 10. Does 3 1sts in the 20s get us into the top 10? Maybe. I’d rather take 4 shots at unearthing a gem based on our track record of picking in the top 10, but it could be done.

Matt Replying to Matt
Michael Perez

Michael Perez

July 27, 2024

they could have traded at draft where top 10 picks in play as well. Just saying.

Brandon P.

Brandon P.

July 26, 2024

Fantastic analysis, Charlie. The pros and cons were laid out beautifully.
As perhaps the only remaining optimistic Flyers fan over age 40, I am on board with the extension. TK is a Flyer through and through and he loves the organization and city. His talent and commitment are worth the term and dollars. Every contending team needs veterans, we just have to cross our fingers that TK and Coots are the right ones to lead this team to the promise land.

acpoponi

acpoponi

July 26, 2024

Charlie – seems like a line on a Doms chart showing a projected % of cap hit YOY would show how the decline of the contract value flattens a bit as the cap rises.

acpoponi Replying to acpoponi
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
July 27, 2024

The model accounts for expected cap ceiling rise.

Charlie O'Connor Replying to Charlie O'Connor
acpoponi

acpoponi

July 27, 2024

Ah ok! Great analysis as always Charlie.

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