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Evaluating the Joel Farabee/Morgan Frost trade, and why it announces a new stage of the Flyers rebuild

Charlie O'Connor
Charlie O'Connor
January 31, 2025
Evaluating the Joel Farabee/Morgan Frost trade, and why it announces a new stage of the Flyers rebuild
Dec 20, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Flyers left wing Joel Farabee (86) against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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Charlie O'Connor

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18 Comments (13 conversations)

jcheim90

jcheim90

January 31, 2025

In the Farabee section you mentioned there were 2 options when there is a third. I know it isn’t something they want to entertain for some reason but maybe a coaching staff that knows how to bring the best out of offensively skilled players could have helped Farabee (and everyone else).

xoffsetx

xoffsetx

January 31, 2025

Thanks Charlie – good insight.

Sean

Sean

January 31, 2025

Great article Charles. I was initially underwhelmed at the return and still am. But it’s unclear how Farabee could regain his form under this staff. I have a feeling he is going to figure it out and make Danny look bad, but at the same time, you sometimes have to make a decision and move on, and maybe this move is one that gets viewed as part of a broader set of moves that the Flyers make over the coming months. And hey maybe Kuzmenko will become Pavel Bure over the second half.

DA-FlyersMan

DA-FlyersMan

January 31, 2025

Wishing all the best to Farabee and Frost, both of whom are good guys by all accounts (and apparently best friends). Both can be good complementary pieces on a contending team (not sure Calgary truly qualifies but that’s neither here nor there), but it seems more likely than not that they weren’t going to be key pieces of a rebuild. Kuzmenko is somewhat intriguing as a player but the best thing about him is his expiring contract. The Flyers are looking at a decent amount of cap space this offseason after a couple of buyouts come off the books and it could be more if they’re able to move Ristolainen, as they surely must now that they’re clearly subtracting from the current roster. Not to mention their combined 7 picks in the first two rounds of the upcoming draft which could be used partially as trade fodder. I feel that we’re finally going to see some significant roster movement in the foreseeable future and I’m here for it. Show us your chops, Danny.

superunoriginal

superunoriginal

January 31, 2025

Extremely nice analysis. This was a move for the future. One step back to two steps forward (maybe three) between 2025 and 2026.
-Jettison potentially bad contract (risky)
-Free up cap space to sign, re-sign or use as trade leverage (taking on another short-term contract or two)
-Hopefully move up a few spots in the draft. Yeah, my eyes are on McQueen and Desnoyers as well.

superunoriginal Replying to superunoriginal
hg88

hg88

February 1, 2025

This is how I saw it too. I am a bit of a draftnick, and loved the Farabee pick and liked the Frost pick (I thought he was a late first very early second round player), but it clearly is not working out with those two. Cap space and moving into the top 5-6 range in the draft is important. I hope they are able to combine some of those seconds with the firsts to move up to get some quality players. Hopefully they still get 4-5 first and second rounders, but the Edmonton and Colorado picks may need to be traded in move up scenarios. Winning the lottery would help.

Michael Perez

Michael Perez

January 31, 2025

this isn’t a sexy trade, but it’s sensible. I’m higher on pelletier then some, but he can bring as much if not more than this version of farabee. His upside is really not far behind either. Farabee upside 60 points without much pk or other value vs. 50ish with pk and two way value. Pelletier will likely cost us about 10 mil less than joel over next three seasons. That makes a ton of sense. When you compute in the long term cap relief on the farabee side of deal with only a slight downgrade in upside, but possible upgrade in present reality, it comes out as fair. Plus, we won’t be the team to give morgan frost 6×6 to be just ok. to repeat, sexy no, sensible yes.

MarioD

MarioD

January 31, 2025

The one concern I have is the risk of keeping Farabee isn’t really existent?

A buyout after the season results in cap hits of
25-26: $1.6mil
26-27: -$97k (a credit!)
27-28: -$97k
28-29: $902k
29-30: $902k
30-31: $902k

MarioD Replying to MarioD
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
January 31, 2025

You’re still functionally “paying” to get rid of Farabee in that case, in the form of about $4.1 million in cap charges.

It’s a matter of opinion, of course, as to whether that not devastating downside (but still a downside!) was acceptable enough to pass on this trade opportunity and give Farabee the rest of the season to bounce back. In this trade, you are getting SOMETHING for him, even if it’s objectively selling low.

Charlie O'Connor Replying to Charlie O'Connor
MarioD

MarioD

January 31, 2025

Viewing it as Frost for a 2nd;
Farabee’s salary this season washes with Kuzmenko’s;

They traded the possibility Farabee shows signs of pulling out of his slump over the next half season had he stayed with the Flyers
for
Pelletier and the burden of that minimal buyout amount

Just feels like a real developmental failure for a dude who they jumped from college straight to the NHL.

MarioD Replying to MarioD
Jason

Jason

February 1, 2025

Oh no. After your banning from The Athletic, you’ve resurfaced to terrorize these comments sections. When will our long national nightmare end?

MarioD Replying to MarioD
guadzilla

guadzilla

February 1, 2025

It isnt really a developmental failure per se – Farabee has turned out to be a very servicable middle-6 forward. It’s just that they have plenty of those, and they are better served freeing up that cap space for a bigger signing.

Chad

Chad

January 31, 2025

Good analysis, but I really think one absent question is the general development of the forwards on this roster. Outside of TK, the forwards under Rocky and Torts are generally not getting better. Cates is having an up year after a down year last year. But what else gives anyone faith that those guys can handle the forwards in a rebuild?

guadzilla

guadzilla

February 1, 2025

Watching Farabee play, i dont think there is anything in his game that screams 1st line talent. He’s a 40-50 point middle 6 winger, and while they have value, the $5MM in cap space is far more useful to a team that’s also loaded with draft picks.

This givens the means to acquire and the cap space to absorb an elite talent. That’s a start – now to find that opportunity. Petterson seems the obvious target, but the drop off in his production, now that he has a shiny new contract, is a bit worrisome. This is going to be a critical move.

Jason

Jason

February 1, 2025

I actually really like this trade for the following reasons:

1. It shows the remaining players that they need to be consistently improving or they might get shipped out, too.

2. It clears long-term cap space, which gives them more flexibility to add a true 1C.

3. It makes the team worse in the short term, thereby aiding in procuring a higher draft pick.

pete

pete

February 1, 2025

Charlie did refer to it but I think a quite significant benefit is the likely much improved draft positioning because of Briere’s willingness to make moves. There are only 4 teams clearly worse than the Flyers so a mini-tanking has a good chance to get the Flyers into a coveted 5th pick of the draft. And don’t forget that translates to the 5th pick of each round.
I think this will be a sellers market (so many teams still in the playoff race, therefore fewer willing sellers) so I suspect Briere will get very good value by trading Ristolainen this year to gain valuable future assets and get the Flyers Under the “pack” of teams ranked right around them to get the coveted #5 draft position.

Bob MCH

Bob MCH

February 1, 2025

Job # 1 for a rebuild is to get three studs at key positions: all-star elite talent, young studs, at 1-C, 1-D, and Goalie. That has to be the starting point. It is imperative that Jonesy and DB focus on filling those three tentpoles for the rebuild first. Acquiring any other positions is peripheral to the foundation. To do this, which at this point they have none of the three key players above, takes cap space, lots if it, if they are going to acquire one or two of the three key building block players through trades or free agency. The other acquisition route for superstars at these three spots is to draft in the top five picks of round one. Torts as their coach is preventing that from happening because he wants to win, is a great coach, which lands them in the mediocre talent 15 to 25 draft area. Given all this, DB and Jonesy trading Farabee and Frost added $5.0 mil to their cap this off season. Trading Risto for a # 1 would pick up another $5.0 mil, and the cap is expected to rise about $7.0 mil this offseason, so they are making progress there. Michkov is not a tentpole. He is very good, may end up a superstar, not sure. Konecny is very good, but not a superstar. They must focus on superstars at the above three spots or forget any Cup for Philly in the next decade. It may be time to get rid of Torts, so they can lose into the top five spots for a couple years, and maybe it would be better for Michkov to develop under a less demanding coach, let the kid have more freedom to let his skills shine, and not get disciplined so much for not being a two way player. So what, let the kid focus on offense, his true value. Stop making him something he is not.

Bob MCH

Bob MCH

February 1, 2025

One more point: Is there any young player developing under the Torts administration? Or is Torts forcing kids to his system rather than helping kids develop their strengths to a higher level? Just wondering, because to me, it is time for Torts to go, and bring in a youth development coach who cares more about making his players better than winning at all costs with a weak roster. Just saying.

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