It certainly seems early in the season for the Philadelphia Flyers to be facing a make-or-break pivot point.
They’ve, of course, played just four games. Their season started merely a week ago. There’s still a whopping 80 games remaining in their regular season slate. To continue a metaphor I used this weekend, if this was an NFL season, the Flyers would now be three and a half minutes into the fourth quarter of their Week 1 game. 999 times out of 1,000, these would all be reasonable counterarguments against panic and doom.
This time, though?
Not all 0-4 starts (OK, 0-2-2) are created equal. If the Flyers were losing in respectable fashion, their beginning to the 2026-27 season would be frustrating for fans to watch, sure, but not overly concerning in the big picture. Instead, they’re getting killed — and in historic fashion. Through four games, they have collected a mere 26.18 percent of the 5-on-5 expected goal share, via Evolving-Hockey. Per PHLY contributor Daniel Bompadre, that’s the second-worst four-game xG rate of any NHL team since 2010. Not even just worst start — the worst stretch of four games at any point during a team’s season.
The other teams in the top-five? The 2013-14 and 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres (who finished with 52 and 54 standings points, respectively) and the 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings, who were pacing for 45 points before COVID-19 mercifully brought their season to a premature end. These are the teams in the same detention hall that the Flyers have made their residence over the last week.
In other words, this is the kind of stretch that only terrible teams have. Eagles fans wouldn’t be overreacting if they were losing their minds to a 52-0 fourth quarter deficit in Week 1.
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4 Comments
xoffsetx
The worst part for me is that they avoided the typical rebuild to avoid the “losing mentality” that they feel come with that approach. They spent years building “culture”. I am in line with you Charlie that the approach isn’t destined to fail – but it WAS supposed to mean at the very least a high floor and that these sorts of stretches shouldn’t happen.
MarioD
Briere and Jones have been presented a golden opportunity to veer the franchise back on course.
This, 2026-27, was the season they were targeting since they took the reins. This was supposed to be the season Michkov came over. This was the season they had built all their contracts around being the emergence from the rebuild-thats-not-a-rebuild.
They failed their own “big game hunting” objective. They’re now behind their own stated timeline, though they won’t admit it.
But headed down that train track that is beginning to look like it ends at the mushy middle of the league… a track switch just came into view. Get this train on a new track: trade tk, risto, sanheim, cates, dvorek (unlikely possible), Couturier (maybe someone is dreaming on that playoff performance?) and go get your elite talent in this year’s draft.
In 2026 now, its proven a lot easier to draft elite talent than it is for the Flyers to acquire it.
agam22
Charlie, one actual tactical question about Tocchet this year. In January, the team looked almost as bad as they do now. Coming back from the Olympics, Tocchet said he talked to DeBoer and switched to a more man/zone hybrid in the D zone to simplify things for his wingers and it obviously seemed to work great. Are they still doing that and it just isn’t working anymore? Did they switch back and can try pulling the hybrid card again? Is the execution just so poor that it doesn’t matter?
Frank
I can’t tell if this team is going to pull out of this, or if they are going to continue uninterrupted their current turd-swirl trajectory down the toilet. I didnt have any serious expectations either way coming into this season.. I wasnt sure what they were, but I wasnt expecting THIS.