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Morgan Frost back in the Flyers lineup, but long-term fit questions remain

Charlie O'Connor
Charlie O'Connor
October 31, 2023
Morgan Frost back in the Flyers lineup, but long-term fit questions remain
Oct 5, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Flyers center Morgan Frost (48) against the New York Islanders at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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Charlie O'Connor

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11 Comments (3 conversations)

Chad

Chad

October 31, 2023

I don’t know if Frost is a long term fit or not with the team, but a few things. 1. Frost’s Defensive failings are vastly overrated. He’s never going to be a Selke candidate, but he’s not a defensive liability. 2. Cutter Gauthier looks like a perrenniel Cy Young contender. I see him as an effective NHL winger, but I have trouble imagining him as an effective NHL center based on the games I’ve seen him play. 3. I like Cates, but there’s no evidence he has an offensive skillset to be a #2 center on a good NHL team. He looks much more like a newer (better defensively) Laughton. He has been spoonfed great linemates and usage without the production to back it up. Frost started last year playing with face punchers until the front office insisted he be given a real shot. Straight up point production last year is misleading in comparing the two.

Chad Replying to Chad
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
October 31, 2023

I think it’s reasonable to argue that Frost isn’t terrible defensively. But that opens the door to a point that Frost defenders probably don’t want to acknowledge — he’s not as good OFFENSIVELY as some people think, either. Here’s how he’s graded out in terms of xG impact over his first two full-ish NHL seasons in terms of offense and defense at EV.

2021-22: 47th percentile Offense, 26th percentile Defense
2022-23: 28th percentile Offense, 58th percentile Defense

He’s a point producer at even strength (or at least has been thus far) but he doesn’t drive play.

Charlie O'Connor Replying to Charlie O'Connor
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
October 31, 2023

The difference between Frost and Cates is that Cates DOES drive play. When Frost isn’t scoring, he’s really not providing value. Cates is. That’s not to say that Frost can’t still be more valuable in aggregate. But it means — at least in my estimation — that he needs to score significantly more than Cates (more than eight points, in other words) to make up the difference.

Charlie O'Connor Replying to Charlie O'Connor
Chad

Chad

October 31, 2023

Thanks for the replies Charlie. I don’t really disagree with anything you say here. I don’t LOVE Frost, but he has an intriguing skillset that the organization otherwise lacks. I think he takes a lot of unfair criticism, though, and that the one time the organization put him in a position to succeed (the second half of last year) he ran with it. I genuinely don’t know how he fits in the future of this team, but he is the only guy in the entire organization that is a puck distributing, creative, offensive-minded center. I actually think his skill set would look great next to Gauthier’s – a guy that has never found a shot he doesn’t want to take, and is a constant, legitimate rush threat off the wing. If Frost doesn’t fit the future of this team, he needs to at least be treated as a useful asset to move for other things. This team has consistently devalued assets before dumping them for pennies on the dollar. I don’t want that to happen with Frost. I also can not ever understand why Cates and Frost are pitted as one vs. the other. They are very different players with very different attributes they bring to the team. I also really like Cates. I just don’t think he’s a scoring line center in the NHL. How many guys that were never big scorers at lower levels suddenly find that scoring touch in their mid 20s in the NHL?

Chad Replying to Chad
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
October 31, 2023

I think Cates is a 3C on a contending Flyers team. I am not at all convinced that Frost is a 2C on a contending Flyers team. And that’s what he needs to be in order to fit here. That’s really the long and short of it for me.

Chad Replying to Chad
MarioD

MarioD

October 31, 2023

There’s plenty of room for Frost in a lineup with four scoring lines.

The problem is the return to dinosaur brained insistence on having facepunchers on the fourth line.

You could match Coots’ line against the other teams best player(s) (especially as Coots ages) match a Cates line as a 3rd line, and then have a sneaky scoring fourth line centered by frost.

But they seem to believe (right or wrong, I’m not sure) that they can’t keep season ticket holders engaged without face punchers to conduct improvised dance routines in the first period of home games.

MarioD Replying to MarioD
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
November 1, 2023

I don’t think that facepunchers are necessary, but I have absolutely come around on the idea that the idea of rolling four pure scoring lines with no regard for style is something better suited for EA video games than real life.

Most scorers need significant ice time to get into a rhythm with the puck, and the limited ice time that comes with 4th line minutes doesn’t afford that to them. Players that play more of a simple game that doesn’t necessarily require extensive chemistry with linemates or the best feel for the puck I find tend to do best in 6-10 minutes per game. So I very much do not think the solution here is “Morgan Frost: 4C.” It’s also not signing enforcers, either. It’s adding quality play-driving bottom-sixers like Garnet Hathaway or developing players like Laughton or Elliot Desnoyers and sticking them on Line 4.

MarioD

MarioD

October 31, 2023

“very real, justified uncertainty regarding whether Frost fits what both he and the Flyers are trying to build over the long-term.”

In a rebuilding year, with a question like this about a player who just signed a two year contract, and the John Tortorella decided the best way to answer was to…. sit the player for six of the first nine games of the season?

Rebecca

Rebecca

November 1, 2023

Hey Charlie — I don’t have a better place to ask this so: any chance you’d consider including a place to post mailbag questions on the ALL PHLY site? With the current state of twitter, I don’t have an active account and don’t particularly want to change that, and I’d love to still be able to ask question; it’s possible I’m alone in that but given how large your mailbags were on The Athletic vs. on twitter I wouldn’t be surprised if I’m not!

Rebecca Replying to Rebecca
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
November 1, 2023

If you’re a Diehard member, you can drop questions in our Flyers Discord too. I’m going to set aside 1-2 questions per Mailbag for Discord members as an extra perk for signing up.

Charlie O'Connor Replying to Charlie O'Connor
Rebecca

Rebecca

November 3, 2023

Thanks! And yes — I’m a diehard. I think only Diehards can comment? Time to go figure out joining the Discord, I guess…

PHLY Flag

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