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O’Connor: It’s time for doubters to acknowledge that Flyers’ rebuild plan isn’t certain to fail

Charlie O'Connor
Charlie O'Connor
March 12, 2024
O’Connor: It’s time for doubters to acknowledge that Flyers’ rebuild plan isn’t certain to fail
Feb 27, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Samuel Ersson (33) celebrates win with right wing Tyson Foerster (71) and defenseman Nick Seeler (24) against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

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Charlie O'Connor

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13 Comments (8 conversations)

David Peyton

David Peyton

March 12, 2024

Write-ups are excellent. I dropped my athletic subscription just read your columns again. Awesome work!

David Peyton Replying to David Peyton
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
March 12, 2024

Great to have you onboard!

mediator88

mediator88

March 12, 2024

As always, Charlie, just what I needed today. I’m 46 years old and have never seen my favorite Philly team win their championship. I want so badly for Jones, Briere, Hilferty and crew to succeed here. Culture matters so very much. I’m on board with their direction and their focus. They just will need to be better-than-average drafters and developers to make it work. Developing talent? The early signs are good. Drafting? The Flyers haven’t been good at that for as long as I’ve been alive, it seems. They have the occasional hit (Giroux, Carter, etc.) but so, so many flubs. Can this Leadership team that around by rebuilding and/or enhancing the scouting and analytics departments? That’s where I have more uncertainty.

mediator88 Replying to mediator88
Scott Ferry

Scott Ferry

March 13, 2024

The last Flyers cup was six months before I was born. I’m convinced that their next cup will be six months after I die.

I do however like the current front office and am optimistic about this team becoming good again.

Deron Nardo

Deron Nardo

March 12, 2024

Charlie, I’d be curious to know where the Flyers rank in the league with 13 1st-round picks (not including Erik Johnson or Marc Staal, who don’t figure to be around long) on their active roster. My point is, they’re not devoid of blue-chippers (four top-10 picks, four more in the 10-20 range, and five more in the 20-30 range), which I think often gets overlooked. Or is 13-ish the norm? It just seems like many of them are taking leaps at the same time, which as you point out could indicate a more solid organizational structure than most fans think.

I’m trying to envision the plausible upside of this current group being higher than anticipated, which would now require only a sprinkling of good luck, a big free-agent signing, or hitting on another draft pick or two to have a yearly contender on our hands.

Thoughts?

Chad

Chad

March 12, 2024

I still don’t see how any of the doubts are addressed. Shrugging your shoulders at the high end talent and saying “it’s possible we will get lucky” doesn’t seem like a plan. This team made it back to mediocrity this year. Yay? Yes, they’ve been mostly fun to watch, in comparison to the dumpster fire of the last few years. The main question from before the season is still the main question? Where is the high end talent coming from?

Chad Replying to Chad
Charlie O'Connor

Charlie O'Connor

Author
March 12, 2024

From drafting well, making smart trades, and working to further develop the players they already have with the goal of pushing them to that point.

All of which the new regime has done well so far.

As I note in the piece, it’s not like getting a bunch of top-10 picks is guaranteed to succeed. Nor are the above strategies guaranteed to fail. I strongly disagree with the way both sides are presented as such. It plays to me as having a clear intent of framing the debate in one’s preferred direction.

Charlie O'Connor Replying to Charlie O'Connor
Chad

Chad

March 12, 2024

I’m not saying it means failure. I’m just saying that we can’t brush off the hardest part as “we have some assets, so it’ll happen.” I’m not an utter pessimist. I want to be realistic. We’ve had horrendous management for more than a decade. Now we have a guy that’s earned a solid B in less than a year. After 10+ years of abject incompetence, that’s great, but it hardly means that executing a difficult plan is gonna happen. I am not saying “can’t happen.” I’m saying “the hardest part remains to be seen.” It’s possible – time will tell whether it happens. I am desperately hoping it does, just not super confident.

Ian Winter

Ian Winter

March 13, 2024

This is classic Charlie. Thorough, reasoned, and realistic. And it does a good job of breaking down the pretty vocal argument that the Flyers are destined to be a middle-of-the-pack hockey club.

Honestly, I’m not sure I understand what path the critics would have wanted Briere to take. Purposely assembling a weaker roster with the intention of floundering would have created the sentiment in both the dressing room and across the fanbase that we had no interest in developing a winning culture. And that can be poison for a franchise (ref: Sens / Ducks / Sharks / Coyotes)

As Charlie and a few commenters noted, we still have a long way to go to be a feared NHL contender. But I don’t Briere has truly stumbled even once yet. The Carter Hart and Cutter Gauthier developments weren’t of his creation. (And he adapted/responded well to coping with the latter.) We have four picks in the first two rounds of each of the next two drafts. We are starting to establish a track record of developing and curating young talent. I’m not saying that a dynasty is inevitable, but as a fan since ’74 (6 years old), I’m more buzzed about the future of this team now than I have been in a long time.

Ian Winter Replying to Ian Winter
jcheim90

jcheim90

March 13, 2024

The Gauthier thing could have been his creation. The kid went from wanting to play here when drafted to wanting out when talking to the new group. I can’t say that is a stumble but I do think they have made some missteps along the way so far but nothing awful. We’ll see what they can do at the draft & if they have it in them to take a big swing.

Bradford Boston

Bradford Boston

March 13, 2024

This is an outstanding assessment! Well rounded, addressing all the issues I’ve been looking for someone to pull together.! I followed you here from the Athletic as well as I really enjoyed your writing there but also the questions you would ask Torts in the pressers. I’ve been a long time hockey nut. Have lived in several hot hockey markets. Grew up in Chicago and my first season tickets were in the old Chicago Stadium. Lived in Dallas when they won the cup and saw what a good TEAM was like. Spent a long time in San Jose during their period of being good but not quite good enough. Really fun to watch the development of the Flyers and impressed with how their whole organization is approaching this. While also serving up some of the most entertaining and frequently insightful press conferences from Torts. He may be combative at times, but you can learn so much about the team and the game from him. When they are on I love listening to him, Paul Meurice and Bruce Cassidy. Now just want you to go and analyze what the Flyers need to do financially to avoid ending up like Toronto!

jcheim90

jcheim90

March 13, 2024

I think I’m somewhere in the middle on this article. I don’t think I’ve seen enough from this group to trust there is a real path to a cup with what they are doing. I also can’t say for sure they can’t draft & develop yet because they’ve only had one & some of the guys are looking pretty good. If they can do things right in the draft, then being in the mid to late part of rounds shouldn’t be an issue & the plan would work. There obviously isn’t a single path to the cup but they need to giving themselves chances at it. At this point I’m more looking towards the draft & offseason to see what else they do in terms of moves & moving one from guys. I like Laughton but he should have been dealt a few times by now & it’s annoying I feel like I’ve been turned into an anti Laughton guy due to the history of mismanagement.

MarioD

MarioD

March 14, 2024

I think it’s a mistake to combine “tanking” and “firesale”.

Tanking is losing consciously in order to get a better draft pick. That’s path #1 in the article’s list.

Firesale is accumulating assets to trade for a superstar. That’s path #3.

They could have committed to either or both of those paths. Instead, they’ve committed to neither.

Because of all the good, young talent on this roster that was just waiting to be untethered, they very much could’ve both competed and had a firesale to collect more assets for future acquisitions.

Laughton is a perfect example: He’s had an average season on the whole. They could’ve traded him for a 1st last offseason, replaced him with a stopgap UFA, or even a cap dump center that comes with ANOTHER asset, and not have a impacted their win-loss record very much.

Vegas embarked on their asset-based strategy with two other teams’ 1st round picks from two other teams, 4 other teams’ 2nd round picks, and a few more later picks. Plus a roster that is relatively equal to the Flyers’ without any cap baggage. (Marchessault, Karlsson, Fleury in goal, etc.)
https://soundofhockey.com/2020/01/27/the-anatomy-of-an-expansion-draft/

The Flyers are a few picks short of Vegas, but the value of those picks is significantly less.

Flyers 1sts: roughly two #15ths for their own picks, and two #25s from Colorado and Florida.
Vegas 1sts: own picks at #7 and #30, plus #13 and #15.

Then Vegas has two additional 2nds, and lower 2nds than the Flyers.

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