Jerardi: Details, odds, longshot for Belmont Stakes in Saratoga

Not only is this the first time since 2013 that the winners of the Kentucky Derby (Mystik Dan) and Preakness (Seize the Grey) will meet in Saturday’s $2 million Belmont Stakes, it is the first time the third leg of the Triple Crown will be run at historic Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Sportswriter Red Smith has been widely quoted as saying this about Saratoga Springs: “From New York City you drive north for about 175 miles, turn left on Union Avenue and go back 100 years.’’

 There is no record of him writing that, but if he said it, it was true then and true today. In Saratoga Springs, horses have the right of way. Its Victorian homes on Union Ave and north of downtown on Broadway are right out of the “Great Gatsby’’ which could have been set there instead of Long Island. Its 40-day summer meet is annually the best in America every year. And fans come from everywhere to be part of it.

This year, they have come from all over for the four-day Belmont Stakes Festival necessitated by the ongoing reconstruction of Belmont Park (on the western tip of Long Island, hard by Queens) which will be finished hopefully in time to run the 2026 Belmont Stakes there.

But this year and next, it will be at Saratoga and because of the different circumference of the track run at 1 1/4 miles instead of the normal 1 1/2 miles. No matter, the race will still be wonderful and its winner recognized for all time.

Since Justify won the 2018 Triple Crown, the 17 Triple Crown races have been won by 17 different horses. No horse has been able to win two of the races, much less three.

And the betting public is likely to decide it’s going to be 18-for-18 as Sierra Leone, second in the Derby by a nose, is an almost certain favorite. The colt who cost $2.3 million at the Saratoga Yearling Sale two years ago and did not race in the Preakness, is two nose defeats from being unbeaten in five starts.

Trainer Chad Brown, less than satisfied with the Derby ride of Tyler Gaffalione, has switched jockeys to the wondrous Flavien Prat, hoping that a new rider, a new bit designed to keep the horse from bearing to his inside in the stretch and instructions for the rider to use his whip with his left hand in the stretch, will do the trick.

Gaffalione apparently forgot the whip part until it was too late in the Derby and there was no room to use it as Sierra Leone had come into the space of Forever Young to his inside. The subsequent bumping may have cost both horses a chance to catch Mystik Dan.

 Mystik Can could not catch a loose-on-the-lead Seize the Grey in the Preakness, but the Derby winner ran a solid second that day, proving his Derby win was no fluke. Trainer Ken McPeek has said Mystik Dan’s early fall goal is the Sept. 21 Pennsylvania Derby at Parx Racing in Bensalem. If Mystik Dan runs in the Pa. Derby, it will mark the third Kentucky Derby winner to run in Parx’s signature race over the last decade (California Chrome 2014, Nyquist 2016).

 Seize the Grey likely will have company near the front in the Belmont, making his task more difficult. Mindframe, who has dominant wins in his two starts, has the requisite speed to be there from the start. And he may actually have the ability to win it in just his third start.

 If you are looking for a live longshot, look no farther than Honor Marie. The colt was essentially eliminated at the start of the Derby and was fortunate to finish eighth. With half the field size and a cleaner trip, Honor Marie has a realistic chance to be in the top three at a big price.

 The entire Saratoga Saturday card is so good it could pass for a Breeders’ Cup Saturday, the depth of talent is so strong. Parx will be represented in races 4 and 8 as Ninetyprcentmaddie and Maximus Meridius run in the $350,000 True North and the $500,000 Woody Stephens respectively.

Both horses are trained at Parx by Butch Reid who had Uncle Heavy in the Preakness. Glenn Bennett’s LC Racing owns Ninetyprcentmaddie while Bennett, Chuck Zacney’s Cash Is King and Reid own Maximus Meridius. Each horse will be a relative longshot, but each is not without a chance.