Minnesota series highlights Phillies trade deadline needs

The Phillies went into this week’s three-game series in Minnesota knowing they need an outfield bat and a bullpen arm. After losing two of three, they left town knowing they really need an outfield bat and a bullpen arm.

In Monday’s 7-2 loss to the Twins, the Phils didn’t score after the first inning. In fact, after Bryson Stott singled to lead off the second, Phillies batters didn’t get another hit for the remainder of the game. Weston Wilson, Johan Rojas, and Brandon Marsh went hitless in six combined at-bats from the LF and CF positions. Ranger Suarez had a solid start, but the bullpen allowed four runs before getting the final eight outs.

The Phillies won Tuesday’s game 3-0, behind a stellar performance by Zack Wheeler. Wheeler threw seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits, walking two, and striking out seven. The bullpen preserved the shutout, but it wasn’t pretty: Jeff Hoffman and Gregory Soto combined to walk the bases loaded in the eighth. Wilson, Rojas, and Marsh went one for six in the game from LF and CF.

Aaron Nola allowed just one run over six innings in Wednesday’s series finale, and the Phillies led the Twins 4-1 late in the game. But Orion Kerkering was charged with three runs in the seventh. Matt Strahm replaced Kerkering with the bases loaded and one out and couldn’t prevent the inherited runners from scoring. Soto, getting another high-leverage LHP opportunity in place of Jose Alvarado as the latter works to regain his form, surrendered the game-winning hit to Minnesota’s Max Kepler in the ninth.

Oh, and the left fielder (Marsh) and center fielder (Rojas) once again went hitless.

There’s no shame in dropping a road series to a strong Twins ballclub. But if warning lights for the Phillies outfield and bullpen were yellow before the series, they’re now blinking red and accompanied by blaring sirens.

In all, the team’s LF and CF positions combined for one hit in 18 at-bats over the course of the series. The starting pitchers allowed four runs in 18.1 innings, but the bullpen surrendered eight runs in just seven innings.

Those results are consistent with season-long trends. Through 102 games, the Phillies’ starting rotation is 46-22 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while their bullpen is 18-16 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. In the lineup, meanwhile, the Phils are getting almost no contributions from their collection of left and center fielders (.665 OPS from LF and .602 OPS from CF).

Here are the Phillies’ offensive numbers/rankings from each position:

• Catcher: .245 AVG (10th in MLB), .682 OPS, (17th), 11 HR (14th)
• First Base: .301 AVG (1st), .954 OPS (1st), 25 HR (1st)
• Second Base: .243 AVG (17th), .677 OPS (14th), 8 HR (18th)
• Third Base: .272 AVG (4th), .784 OPS (6th), 11 HR (15th)
• Shortstop: .314 AVG (2nd), .877 OPS (3rd), 17 HR (6th)
• Left Field: .232 AVG (17th), .665 OPS (23rd), 11 HR (15th)
• Center Field: .234 AVG (17th), .602 OPS (25th), 5 HR (27th)
• Right Field: .244 AVG (15th), .718 OPS (13th), 14 HR (11th)
• Designated Hitter: .234 AVG (19th), .779 OPS (9th), 21 HR (4th)

The Phillies can probably expect top five-ish production to continue from 1B Bryce Harper, 3B Alec Bohm, and SS Trea Turner. Kyle Schwarber will continue to mash baseballs as the DH. At 2B, there’s reason to believe Bryson Stott (and maybe an increasing amount of Edmundo Sosa) will improve the position’s numbers. Same goes for RF, where Nick Castellanos has played better as of late. And with J.T. Realmuto back after an extended absence, the Phils’ numbers from the C position will almost certainly trend upward.

But in LF and CF? Brandon Marsh is just about the only internal option for either position with a respectable OPS (.742), and he has been unplayable against lefthanded pitching (.371 OPS vs LHP). Cristian Pache (.557) and Johan Rojas (.563) each have a lower OPS than much-maligned–and recently released–Whit Merrifield (.572).

Weston Wilson (.614 OPS) and David Dahl (.639 OPS) have had their moments, but neither gives the feel of someone who can play an important role on a championship team. Kody Clemens has posted a .777 OPS in 65 plate appearances this season, but sports a career .618 OPS in the majors. Additionally, Clemens bats left-handed, so he can’t platoon with Marsh in left (and he has never played center field in his big-league career).

The MLB trade deadline is Tuesday, July 30 at 6:00 p.m. At this point, the question probably isn’t whether the Phillies make a move for an outfielder, but instead who the Phillies make a move for.

They could go relatively small, picking up a platoon partner for Marsh (think someone like the Nationals’ Lane Thomas). In that scenario, maybe they live with Rojas’ offense in exchange for his tremendous defensive value in CF. Alternatively, they could pull off a blockbuster, shipping out one or more of their highly-regarded top prospects (or even the 23-year-old Rojas) for a difference-maker like Chicago’s Luis Robert, Jr.

The same goes for bullpen. It’s fairly certain that the Phillies will get someone, but it’s unclear whether they’ll shop at the top of a pricey market. A player like Oakland’s Mason Miller could make the unit absolutely lethal. But he’d likely cost a package centered around Andrew Painter or Aidan Miller, if not both.

We know that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn’t shy when it comes to big deals. But it will take some magic to fix both of his club’s glaring needs, especially if the organization isn’t interested in fully mortgaging its future. And on Wednesday, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweeted that the Phillies “are looking at rotation upgrades.” If that’s true… well, there are only so many prospects to go around.

If Dombrowski is on the fence about his options, maybe this series in Minnesota will tip the scales in favor of bigger moves.

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Check in with the PHLY Phillies podcast on YouTube every day this week as Renee, Jamie, and Tyler examine some of the Phils’ most likely trade targets, all leading up to a LIVE trade deadline show. We’ll also keep you posted on the latest trade rumors from the PHLY Phillies twitter account.

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