Philadelphia Flyers midseason report cards: the forwards

The Philadelphia Flyers are at the halfway point of their season.

OK, so they officially reached the halfway point last Wednesday via their 3-2 comeback victory over the Montreal Canadiens. But given the justifiable focus on Jamie Drysdale’s debut and making sense of the Cutter Gauthier saga, it wasn’t really possible to take a wide view of how each of the individual Flyers have performed thus far.

A slight break in the schedule provides the opportunity to do just that.

It’s time for mid-year report cards, a terribly stressful event for elementary and high schoolers, and something that Flyers players almost certainly care nothing about — at least not the ones they’ll be receiving on PHLY. They’re far more focused on the task at hand: proving all of their doubters wrong and continuing their unlikely playoff push as a group.

Nevertheless, there have been individuals on the team who have performed better than others, and with 44 games in the books, it’s worth pointing out which are truly acing their tests, who needs to put in a bit more extra to finish with honors, and who could be in danger of failing the class if he doesn’t turn it around quickly.

Part 1 focuses on the forwards — specifically, those who have appeared in at least 15 games thus far. Also included in each report card are key metrics — all from Evolving-Hockey — to better explain the justification behind the grade:

• Full-season goal and point pace (assuming he plays every single remaining game — so this accounts for games missed so far)
• 5-on-5 Points/60 (whether it is first-line caliber relative to other NHL forwards this season, second-line, etc)
• Play-driving Percentile rank among NHL forwards (via xG RAPM model)

Let’s get to the grades.

Konecny isn’t merely proving that last season’s step-up was for real. He’s gotten even better.

He’s on pace for nearly 40 goals. He’s been one of the league’s best 5-on-5 point producers (12th among forwards). And he’s no longer a play-driving liability at even strength like he was last season; now, he’s in the top 20th percentile among NHL forwards.

Most importantly, however, Konecny hasn’t wilted despite increased expectations. It’s a lot easier to be the top scorer on a team going nowhere than to be consistently impactful on a nightly basis while your team is in the mix for a playoff spot. Someone has to score points on a bad team; it doesn’t mean said player should be at the top of truly competitive lineup. At least through 44 games, Konecny has been the best forward on a legitimately good hockey team, and very much looking the part of a player who can be one of the two or three best guys on a true Stanley Cup contender.

The lack of power play production (two goals, one assist in over 135 minutes) is the only blemish that keeps him from an A+ grade. Otherwise, Konecny has been stellar.

Konecny’s leap over the past two seasons is well-documented around the league. I’m not convinced that most are aware Farabee is taking a similar jump.

Throughout his career, Farabee has long been a player who found ways to produce points at 5-on-5 and help the Flyers outscore the opposition despite being outchanced and outshot. Farabee’s plus finishing ability (13.3 percent SH%) and his high playmaking IQ allowed him to get away with not being a play-driver, and still remain an effective NHL forward.

This year, he’s kept the finishing touch and playmaking acumen — except now, his 5-on-5 game has improved to the point where he’s driving play too. The result? He’s the fifth-most efficient scoring forward at 5-on-5 in the entire NHL.

Dating back to his time as a prospect, Farabee always projected to become a two-way stalwart at some point; the scoring touch, if anything, came as a bit surprising back in 2020-21 when he first showcased it. Now, the two-way play is coming around too, yet the unexpected impact offensive ability (at least at 5-on-5) remains.

He very much looks the part of a long-term 1LW, and if he ever figures out the power play (just four points this season), then the Flyers will have a star on their hands.

Sean Couturier may not be all the way back to peak Couturier form yet. But he’s a heck of a lot closer than basically anyone reasonably expected he would be.

The impact of missing a year and a half of hockey is already enormous for any NHL player. To miss that time as a result of two back surgeries — I’ve heard that the back is fairly important in allowing a pro hockey player to do, well, anything on the ice — and attempt a comeback at age 30, when even most healthy players are beginning their decline phase? Couturier was facing a daunting task this season just to return as 70 percent of his Selke Trophy-winning self.

Instead, let’s say he’s something like 90-95 percent of what he was back in 2019-20. The even strength impacts are still stellar, and right in line with his past results. And while the raw point totals are down (20 goals and 57 points aren’t great for a 1C), Couturier is still producing well at even strength despite taking on top lines and superstars nightly. His faceoff work has even come around after a slow start — since Christmas, Couturier has won 128 of 214 draws (59.8 percent).

So what keeps him from unqualified “A” territory? First, the finishing hasn’t fully come back yet; he’s scored on just 8.8 percent of his shots despite an 11.2 percent career average. But there’s also the fact that he’s battled injury at times, and was forced to sit out the final two games of the team’s just concluded road trip as a result of a supposedly “minor” issue. Couturier has always missed games here and there during his career, but given his age and recent surgery history, those absences bring more alarm now, and probably will for the rest of his career.

Still, when Couturier has played, he’s been incredibly effective, and now, there’s little reason to think that won’t continue.

If there’s a player without an “A” grade who seems a likely candidate to receive one when end-of-year grades are handed out, it would be Tippett.

Tippett, of course, is absolutely on fire right now, with four goals in his last five games. But it’s not just the goals; Tippett is very much looking the part of a physically dominant top-six forward capable of going around or through opposing defenses. If this Tippett is the one who shows up nightly in the second half, he’ll blow away these current projected point pace totals.

But that hasn’t been the Tippett from the bulk of the first half; there’s a reason why he’s only on pace for 30 goals despite this recent surge. While Tippett’s shot volume is through the roof — only David Pastrnak is averaging more shots per 60 this season — he’s dealt with long stretches where his accuracy has abandoned him, and his shooting percentage on shots that actually hit the net is still below 10 percent even now. Right now, he’s basically on pace to replicate his 2022-23 production, and more was expected of Tippett heading into the season.

When taking the wide view, Tippett’s first half has been impressive. He’s scoring like a low-end first liner at 5-on-5, and he’s on pace for 30 goals despite not being a play-driving liability. It’s just that everyone knows Tippett has another gear to reach — and perhaps he’s just beginning to find it.

Is a B-minus high for Morgan Frost, given the fact that he’s only on pace for 15 goals and 34 points? Maybe.

But given what he’s had to overcome this season, I stand by the grade.

It was clear from the third game of the season that Frost still was facing an uphill battle to convince his head coach that he should be viewed as an essential part of the lineup. Frost has been scratched a whopping 11 times thus far, and there were points in November when he had sat for half of the team’s games. It would have been extremely easy for Frost to sulk, or demand a trade (or both).

Instead, Frost kept plugging away. Once a two-way liability, Frost has graded out as a legitimate play-driver at even strength this season, ranking in the 96th percentile among all NHL forward in xG impact. And he’s showing no signs of slowing down in that regard: over the past month, the Flyers have collected 61.17 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 with Frost on the ice — easily a team-high. There’s even a chance he may have even finally won over Tortorella, by directly and pointedly challenging him after his most recent scratch two weeks ago. Over the past two seasons, Frost has been pushed out of his comfort zone by the coaching staff both on and off the ice, and rather than shrink from the challenge, he’s risen to meet it.

There are still areas in need of improvement, of course. High-end third line scoring rates at 5-on-5 are nothing special for a player with the kind of raw offensive talent Frost possesses, and he needs to provide more on the power play (Frost does have three PP points since the start of January). But as Tortorella said in the wake of their meeting on January 5 and Frost’s standout performance the next day, there’s now a path for this all working out. Credit Frost for getting there.

On one hand, Tyson Foerster is just 21 years old and is already grading out as an elite play-driving winger, completely winning over Tortorella and gaining scattered Selke consideration from the especially statistically-inclined in the process.

On the other, Foerster was drafted in large part due to his plus shot and goal scoring ability, yet he’s scored on just 6.3 percent of his shots and is on pace to barely crack double-digits on the season.

Foerster is doing all the little things right, which is why he has remained in the lineup. He’s been a monster along the boards, has flashed a knack for forcing turnovers on the backcheck, and just always seems to be in the right spot, reminiscent of Oskar Lindblom in that regard. As a result, it’s easy to accept that given his natural shooting ability, the scoring is going to eventually come around, and once it does, the Flyers will have a special player on their hands.

But in the here and now, Foerster’s lack of offense is a problem, especially for a player averaging nearly 17 minutes a night. He’s a top-sixer scoring like a fourth liner, and for a team 22nd in the NHL in goals and 31st in shooting percentage, he’s a not-insignificant part of the issue.

Foerster is having a fascinating rookie season, and if anything, it’s only raised his plausible ceiling, since few expected he had this kind of two-way acumen in him. But it hasn’t been a great rookie season.

Ryan Poehling has absolutely exceeded reasonable expectations so far this season.

When he was signed, the idea was that the Flyers were taking a shot at a 24-year old who was a first round pick back in 2017 and might still have some upside. But the most likely outcome was that Poehling would be decent in a 4C role, provide some PK value, and then move on to another town as a fine but replaceable depth option.

Instead, he’s endeared himself to Tortorella, and turned himself in a nightly lineup staple. He’s already just four points away from tying his career high, and if Torts keeps using him regularly in the top-nine as he has for the past few months, he could fly by that mark by the end of January. Poehling also has established himself as a PK stalwart, forming a highly-effective duo with Garnet Hathaway. His speed also has helped to change the dynamic of the Philadelphia forward corps, along with Tippett and a resurgent Konecny. Poehling’s line always comes with the threat of attack, which was missing from the Flyers’ bottom-six for years.

Poehling’s underlying metrics have suffered when out of a fourth line role, however, implying that he’s best served as a 4C. But in a pinch, he has the skill to fill in on a scoring line, given his speed and relentless approach. With his contract up at the end of the season, Poehling now looks like a potential long-term piece (at the right price, of course).

Bobby Brink wasn’t even supposed to be in the NHL right now, so the fact that he’s pacing for 36 points and scoring at a second-line rate at 5-on-5 is impressive enough on its own.

But if Tippett is the Flyers’ forward trending most in the direction of seeing his grade improve, Brink is the one most likely to have his drop.

Brink has certainly shown flashes of exciting potential, particularly when he skated with Joel Farabee. The playmaking ability is undeniable, and while his skating stride remains awkward-looking, Brink rarely has seemed behind the pace of play at the NHL level. However, Brink’s scoring has dried up (no points in January) and his ice time has along with it — he’s cracked the 12-minute mark just twice in his last six games. Tortorella has expressed his fondness for the player and belief in his upside, but has also criticized his checking and recently scratched Brink against the Wild last Friday.

Brink has shown that he’s not overmatched at the NHL level, and given his longshot status to make the club at the start of training camp, that’s an impressive feat. But he’s certainly in the midst of a downward trend, with no guarantee that he can arrest it.

It certainly feels like Hathaway has more than just four goals and six points this season, no?

Out of the Flyers’ three main “fourth liners” (Poehling obviously has spent significant time in the top-nine too), Hathaway has graded out the best by advanced metrics, solidly in the 48th percentile by xG impact. That matches the eye test — Hathaway does the things that tend to extend puck possessions, such as winning battles along the boards, laying productive hits, and forcing turnovers. He’s also been strong on the PK alongside Poehling, and has given the fourth line a physicality that doesn’t just come from largely staged fights.

That said, Hathaway is on pace for just 11 points and ranks 391st in the NHL among forwards in 5-on-5 Points/60. That’s not great.

My guess is that Hathaway will post a few two-point nights the rest of the way to make his final stat line look more palatable; he’s pretty consistently paced for over 20 points in each of his NHL seasons as a fourth liner. And Hathaway does bring value outside of his scoring — it’s just that the Flyers really could use just a little bit actual point production from him.

One could certainly make the case that, viewed in aggregate, Atkinson’s first half of 2023-24 hasn’t been that bad. He’s still on track for about 20 goals and low-end second line caliber scoring at 5-on-5, and while his underlying numbers aren’t great, they’re not so putrid that he’s dragging the whole team down with him. And this is all after missing a full season due to neck surgery and making a comeback at age 34.

That’s all fair. But Atkinson also is a goal scorer who didn’t score for 27 games. That’s gonna at least put you in the C-minus range.

Atkinson’s hot start inflates his totals, given the fact that he had eight goals through 15 games. Since then, he’s produced nine points in 28 games, and the Flyers have been outscored 17 – 10 with Atkinson on the ice at 5-on-5. It’s been rough.

Typically solid PK work and his feel-good two-goal night in Winnipeg this past weekend keep Atkinson out of “D” territory, as does the fact that he’s surely feeling the effects of missing a full season, especially at his age. But the December version of Atkinson barely looked like an NHL caliber forward. The Flyers can only hope that he’s rediscovered his game in time for the second half.

Speaking of strong PK work helping to prop up an otherwise severely disappointing season, let’s talk about Scott Laughton.

Laughton remains an integral piece of the Flyers’ locker room, the only player with a letter on his sweater and a key driver of the culture that has allowed this club to be better than the sum of its parts through 44 games. And in truth, a 35-point pace isn’t too bad; it would be Laughton’s second-best full season point total.

But look under the surface, and not all is well.

Four goals in 44 games just isn’t going to cut it for a player who spends the bulk of his time in the Flyers’ top-nine. But even more concerning has been his 5-on-5 on-ice results. Laughton has long been a player who elevates his linemates, helping them to outchance the opposition even as he bounced around the lineup. This year, however, he’s way down in the 8th percentile among NHL forwards in terms of xG impact at even strength, and the Flyers have been outscored 27 – 17 at 5-on-5 with Laughton on the ice.

Perhaps overuse of Laughton in the middle — due to the Frost scratches and the Noah Cates injury — has played a role in his struggles. Maybe Laughton has been banged up, or is starting to show signs of age (he turns 30 in May). Or maybe he’s just having a down year. Regardless, Laughton hasn’t been in peak form through 44 games, and time is running out for him to figure things out.

Noah Cates entered the 2023-24 season with serious career momentum. He had just completed a promising rookie season. His coach loved him. He earned scattered Selke votes as a first-year player, and now the team fully believed he could add more offense to his repertoire.

So what happened? First, Cates couldn’t score. Then, he got hurt. And now, he has to basically start his season over from scratch.

It wasn’t all bad from Cates over the first 21 games of the season; his underlying numbers remained strong, even as he clearly was trying to take more risks and unlock the offensive side of his game at the NHL level. The problem was that the points weren’t coming, and when he did make defensive errors, they tended to be glaring ones. Then, in the midst of a game on Long Island where — back at his natural wing position — he appeared to be building some confidence for himself with the puck, Cates broke his foot and missed seven weeks.

Now, Cates is finally back in the Flyers’ lineup, and he’ll have the entire second half to change the narrative of his season. For now, however? It’s been about as rough as it gets.

First, the good from Deslauriers this season.

In October, he was an effective cog of a physical, aggressive fourth line. He remains a key part of the Flyers’ locker room, and his toughness is much appreciated by the young players on the team especially — on more than one occasion this season, he’s stepped up to drop the gloves in defense of a teammate, most memorably in Nashville after Owen Tippett took a hard hit from Jeremy Lauzon. Those moments don’t go unnoticed, and given the importance of team comradery and chemistry for this group, it would be foolish to argue that Deslauriers hasn’t played a big role in helping to develop it.

The bad? Pretty much everything else, unfortunately.

Deslauriers has just three points in 42 games, and not a single goal. His underlying metrics after a strong start have fallen off a cliff — since November, the Flyers have collected just 36.91 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when Deslauriers has skated, and over the past month, it’s dropped to 29.51 percent. By basically every statistical metric, Deslauriers has been a sub-replacement level player on aggregate this season, and now he’s even been scratched twice by a coach who very much appreciates what Deslauriers brings to the table.

Deslauriers’ intangible impact on the club shouldn’t be disregarded — especially a club that is winning the way the Flyers have, without a bunch of flashy stars. His tangible impact, however, leaves much to be desired, and raises the question of just how much of an opportunity to turn his season around in the second half he is even going to receive.