Phillies Minor Leaguers: Griff McGarry

Jamie and Renee evaluated RHP Griff McGarry on today’s PHLY Phillies podcast, kicking off a series of daily discussions about the Phillies’ “top 25-ish” prospects.

Selected in the fifth round of the 2021 MLB draft out of the University of Virginia, the 24-year old McGarry has great stuff and is a strikeout machine. He fanned 12.5 batters per nine over four seasons in college and 13.3 batters per nine innings over three minor league seasons (72 IP in A/A+ ball, 87.1 IP with AA Reading, and 12.1 IP with AAA Lehigh Valley).

As recently as last Spring, McGarry was the consensus number three prospect in the Phillies’ system. Both Fangraphs and MLB.com ranked McGarry just behind fellow pitchers Andrew Painter and Mick Abel, with the latter website proclaiming that he “looks to join the Phillies rotation sooner rather than later.”

That’s the good news.

The bad news is McGarry consistently fails to find the strike zone. It’s a problem that dates back to his time with Virginia, where he walked 8.8 batters per nine. Across all minor league levels, Griff walked 6.1 batters per nine after joining the Phils’ system. And his promotion to AAA in late 2023 proved disastrous: McGarry walked 14 batters in just 4.1 innings, allowing eight hits and 20(!) earned runs.

“Some of it might be the adjustment to the baseball, it’s a little different at Triple-A,” said Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski when discussing McGarry’s struggles. “We still like him a great deal. He’s got good stuff. But he’s going to have to settle in and throw more strikes. We’ve got a plan that includes now and in the wintertime. We have to do work so that he throws more strikes. No doubt about that.” Dombrowski added that the Phillies still, “at this point,” view McGarry as a future starting pitcher rather than a reliever.

McGarry likely still profiles as a starter because he has several plus pitches in his arsenal. Scouts rate his fastball as “well above average,” and he’s touched 99mph at times. McGarry’s curveball, slider, and changeup each grade out as slightly above average, and he added a hard cutter at the end of 2023 to give him a potential fifth pitch.

None of that will matter, of course, if Griff continues to walk batters at such a high rate. Fangraphs dropped him from the third-best prospect in the Phillies system entering the 2023 season to 25th in rankings released earlier this week. Writer Eric Longenhagen didn’t mince words in his evaluation: “McGarry is going on 25 and has never thrown strikes. Past hoping things will click, I’d settle instead for McGarry’s stuff bouncing back enough for him to be an inefficient middle reliever.”

The MLB prospect graveyard is filled with talented pitchers who never managed to consistently throw strikes. McGarry’s upside is huge if he can put it all together, but time is starting to run short. 2024 feels like a make-or-break season for the 6’2″ righty. Can he keep the strikeouts and ditch the walks?

Just throwing something out there: Has anyone looked into whether this is a Rick Vaughn situation?