Phillies play sloppy baseball, win big anyway because LOLMets

Ranger Suarez pitched just five innings on Wednesday, tied for his shortest start of the season. The Phillies committed two official errors and arguably should have been charged with more. Nick Castellanos got thrown out by about 30 feet trying to stretch a single into a double. J.T. Realmuto got thrown out at home on a baserunning mistake that was arguably even worse.

And the Phillies beat the Mets easily, 10-5.

Five takeaways from today’s game:

1) Johan Rojas is a great outfielder. But is he as great as we thought? In 2023, Rojas racked up 15 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in just 59 games. This Fangraphs primer on DRS notes that a Gold Glove caliber player typically collects 15+ DRS over the course of an entire season. Rojas’ 2023 performance, extrapolated over 162 games, equates to an absurd 41 DRS.

It’s unfair to expect that level of defensive play over 162 games. But the Phillies probably didn’t expect this, either:

Even the best defensive players in the world make errors, and the weather wasn’t helpful on Wednesday. I’m not going to rip Rojas over one play. But the young centerfielder doesn’t look quite the same as he did last season: he has misjudged some fly balls, taken some bad routes, bobbled a few balls as he picked them up off the ground. His 2024 DRS is negative three.

A player that’s on the major league roster for his glove simply has to do better. You often hear that “defense doesn’t slump,” but a slump is probably exactly what we’re seeing here. Rojas is still the same guy who did this in his major league debut:

2) The Phillies still make too many outs on the basepaths.

There’s aggressive baserunning. There’s really aggressive baserunning. Then there’s whatever this is:

Baserunning mistakes have plagued the Phillies for years. The 2024 team is off to one of the best starts in Phils history because they fixed many other issues that plagued them in previous seasons: the starting rotation is deeper, the bullpen is stronger, and the defense (today’s miscues aside) suddenly features Gold Glove-level talent all over the field.

But the baserunning is still a concern. Overly aggressive decisions, getting picked off base… These aren’t major problems when the Phillies score ten runs in a mid-May laugher over the Mets. But come Red October, these types of mistakes can send a team home.

3) Ranger Suarez is a legitimate National League Cy Young candidate.

Suarez arguably had one of his worst starts of the season on Wednesday and he didn’t even allow an earned run. He’s 8-0 through his first nine starts of the season. He has an incredible 1.37 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP. He has 58 strikeouts to just 10 walks.

Vegas oddsmakers are taking notice:

“8-0 is pretty special, man,” Harper said of Suarez after Wednesday’s win. “He’s throwing strikes, pitching to contact as much as possible . . . He never wavers, man. Just a lot of fun to watch.”

4) Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto look healthy.

Bryce Harper missed Tuesday’s game due to a migraine and J.T. Realmuto missed three games this week because of a knee issue.

Both players were back in the lineup on Wednesday. Harper collected three hits, including a solo home run in the first inning and a bases-loaded double in the fifth. He had three RBI on the day. Realmuto had a hit and an RBI of his own.

Realmuto exited the game after the Phillies built a 10-2 lead, but manager Rob Thomson said afterwards that he wasn’t pulled due to any re-aggravation of the knee. Thomson expects the starting catcher to be in Thursday’s lineup.

5) The Phillies may never lose again.

This team is 31-13 overall, tied for the second-best start through 44 games in franchise history. It’s the best record in baseball. The Fightins lead Atlanta by three games in the division. They could play .500 ball the remainder of the season and they would still reach 90 wins. They haven’t lost three consecutive games all season and have only dropped two in a row twice.

And it’s not just that they’re winning–it’s how they’re winning. The rotation, the lineup, and the bullpen have formed a balanced attack. It’s hard to think of a player on the roster who hasn’t contributed in some way to the group’s success. Everything the Phillies have done to this point seems entirely sustainable.

Clean up that baserunning though, guys.