The Phillies reached July trailing the Braves by just 2½ games, their smallest deficit since April 14. Can they catch them? It’s among our biggest questions heading into the All-Star break, which is less than two weeks away.
- First place after all?
Winning the NL East seemed like an afterthought until mid-June, when the Braves finally stopped keeping pace with a Phillies team that has gone 39-19 since Don Mattingly took over.
In the span of 23 days from June 7-30, the Phillies trimmed seven games off what was then a 9½-game Braves lead.
The Braves are reeling. Ronald Acuña Jr. is likely out through the All-Star break. Spencer Strider is out until at least mid-August. Key setup man Robert Suarez is sidelined. Drake Baldwin has slumped badly since returning from the IL. Bryce Elder has been pounded since pitching over his head through the first six weeks.
The Phillies, meanwhile, continue to dominate behind Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo. They’re 34-13 behind the elite trio, a 117-win pace. It might be the most meaningful stat of the Phillies’ first half given how reliant they’ll be on those three to determine their October success.
- How many All-Stars?
The Phillies tied a major-league record in 2024 with eight All-Stars. They won’t have as many this season but could end up with a handful.
Kyle Schwarber will make it. Sanchez is a lock. Closer Jhoan Duran probably is, as well, since the only closer who’s had a better season is Mason Miller.
Zack Wheeler’s season began a month after Opening Day but he instantly returned to being one of the five best pitchers in baseball. He has a 2.03 ERA in 12 starts and his 0.86 WHIP would lead the majors if he had enough innings to qualify.
Brandon Marsh continues to hit his way in. He was squarely in the conversation when June began, then he batted .315 in June with nine homers, raising his season slugging percentage by 47 points. Seven outfielders made last year’s NL All-Star team and Marsh has certainly been one of the seven best this season, along with players like James Wood, Corbin Carroll, Jordan Walker and Andy Pages.
Bryce Harper should be in based on his production. He has better offensive numbers than Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman. The only way he’d be omitted is if Freeman is voted in at first base and Olson is given the reserve spot over Harper. You’d hope the game being at Citizens Bank Park would increase Harper’s chances.
- Back of rotation
The Phillies have three clear trade needs: right-handed-hitting outfielder, starting pitcher, setup man.
The starting pitcher does not need to be a game-changing piece, it could just as easily be a No. 4 or 5 starter because he is unlikely to factor into the playoffs.
Aside from Tarik Skubal, the best available starting pitching trade candidates include Sonny Gray, Robbie Ray, Casey Mize, Jack Flaherty, Brady Singer, maybe Eduardo Rodriguez. There is also the tier below them of Zac Gallen, Michael Lorenzen and Tomoyuki Sugano.
What the Phillies need in their rotation is competence, not flashiness. They just need a starter who can get them through 5-6 innings while allowing three or four runs. If not, they’d be severely undermanned if any injury occurs as they’re already rolling out Aaron Nola and Alan Rangel 40% of the time.
- Right-handed bat
The best trade fit for the Phillies would be Byron Buxton because of his power, speed, positional fit and right-handedness. It remains unclear whether Buxton will waive his no-trade clause, but his hesitance may also be a negotiating tactic that forces an acquiring team to extend his contract or add a sweetener.
Aside from Buxton, the available right-handed-hitting outfielders are not impact players. Taylor Ward, Jo Adell or Heliot Ramos would make the Phillies a deeper team but none would be a sure thing. One player who could make an impact if available is Randy Arozarena. The Mariners are in the AL West race but president of baseball operations Jerry DiPoto makes unconventional moves nearly every summer, so don’t discount the possibility.
The Phillies will absolutely add a right-handed bat by the August 3 trade deadline, the question is just the degree of the upgrade.
- Setup man
Jose Alvarado and Brad Keller have not performed up to their capabilities this season. Alvarado has a 5.70 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, both approaching his career-worsts. Keller has put a plethora of men on base and been fortunate to avoid more damage. He is also on the injured list with right forearm tendinitis.
The top of the relief trade market includes Aroldis Chapman, but he’s not the only arm to pursue. There’s also Chapman’s teammate, Garrett Whitlock. There’s Marlins closer Pete Fairbanks, Emilio Pagan of the Reds, Yennier Cano of the Orioles, Kyle Finnegan of the Tigers and Kirby Yates of the Angels. Fairbanks, in particular, would be a great fit alongside Duran.
- Painter’s second half
Do we see Andrew Painter again in the majors in 2026? There is no straightforward answer.
If Painter performs, maybe. If the Phillies suffer a rotation injury or two, probably.
But their goal this time around is to let Painter earn his way back up. He can do so by showing better command of his fastball, an ability to miss bats, limit walks and go deeper into games. It’s all easier said than done, but the book on him is not written. He’s 23 years old with a 97 mph fastball and multiple offspeed pitches that can look like plus offerings at times. But first, he needs to do it in the minors and regain confidence. This is more failure than Painter has ever experienced.
- The race to 400
As of July 1, Harper was on pace to reach 401 career home runs this season with Schwarber on pace to reach 399. How cool would it be if they both pull it off just before the postseason begins?
If they don’t, they’ll reach the threshold early next season and it will only add to their Hall of Fame resumes. Harper is bound for Cooperstown. Schwarber can punch his ticket, too, with three or four more powerful seasons that get him to 500 bombs.
It’s incredible that after hitting 56 home runs last season, Schwarber is on pace for 57.
- Can Marsh maintain?
Marsh is hitting .317/.348/.520 this season but his success dates far beyond the start of 2026. He’s hit .309/.349/.514 over the last 365 days, a span of 150 games. The only hitter in the majors with a higer batting average over that span is Yandy Diaz.
Marsh needed a year like this because he’s a free agent after 2027. It’s the middle of his prime and he’s finally proven himself to be an everyday player.
The Phillies needed a year like this from him because they’re a top-heavy offense. The questions about protection for Schwarber and Harper haven’t been nearly as loud with Marsh hitting for average and now for power. It’s the step forward the organization had been hoping for from Marsh, Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm. Marsh has separated himself from the other two with his all-around play.
- Will Turner wake up?
It seems like he has. Trea Turner has six multi-hit games in his last eight, and he’s scored 16 of the last 22 times he’s been on base.
He does not need to win another batting title. He does not need to hit 25 home runs. Turner just needs to get on base at a league average or better clip for the Phillies’ offense to take another step forward. When he reaches base, he often comes all the way around because of his speed and the thump behind him. His presence on base also makes it infinitely tougher for opposing teams to pitch around Schwarber and Harper.
It should be seen as a pretty encouraging sign that the Phils have made their turnaround without Turner performing, for the most part.
1 Comment
Michael Curran
Corey,
Most of the bullpen arms you list seem to be reasonable except for Fairbanks. The Marlins are 2 games out of a wildcard spot why would they trade their closer especially to a team in their own division.