PHLY NHL mock draft v 1.0 -- Lottery Edition

In less than one month, the 2024 NHL Draft will be upon the hockey world.

Perhaps it’s then the right time to present the first of two PHLY mock drafts of the all-important first round.

The Flyers, of course, hold two first round picks — one at No. 12, and the Florida Panthers’ selection that will end up in one of the final four spots, depending upon how they perform in the remaining two rounds of the playoffs. In other words, the entire first round will be relevant to Flyers fans over the next four weeks.

Today, we start with the lottery portion of the first round — the first 16 selections, including the Flyers’ first pick at #12. This section of the mock draft will be free to all, while Thursday’s full-round mock will be accessible to Diehard members only. Expect a second mock draft later in June as the draft looms ever closer and more information regarding the prospects and the intentions of individual teams becomes available.

I do not consider myself a prospect expert, nor a national insider with contacts in every NHL front office. But I have done significant scouting research into the prospects available at the top of this draft, and attempted to gain a comprehensive handle on the current public consensus regarding how the first round and which way the winds appear to be blowing. Basically, this is my early read on who will get taken, when they’re likely to be selected, and what that means for the Flyers’ plans at their picks.

1. San Jose Sharks: Macklin Celebrini, C, Boston University

The one foregone conclusion. My guess is that even if Celebrini were to suffer some fluky, non-hockey injury over the next month, the Sharks would still race up to the podium to select him first overall. He’s a future 1C with franchise-changing potential.

2. Chicago Blackhawks: Ivan Demidov, W/C, SKA St. Petersburg

The Blackhawks are far from a lock to select Demidov, who comes with the concern of being a small-ish forward lacking an elite skating gear. But in terms of pure talent, Demidov is the best player available, and ultimately, I have trouble seeing Chicago pass up on pairing his playmaking and vision with 2023 No. 1 pick Connor Bedard for the next decade. Also, recent events — the resolution of the Ivan Fedotov situation and the potential jump of Matvei Michkov to North America two years earlier than expected — make “the Russian factor” appear significantly less daunting, decreasing the perceived risk of selecting a talented Russian prospect at the top of the draft.

3. Anaheim Ducks: Artyom Levshunov, RHD, Michigan St. University

The perception in league circles right now seems to be that Anaheim, after shipping young right-shot defenseman Jamie Drysdale out for Cutter Gauthier last season, would lean blueliner with this pick in the event of a tie. Add in the fact that defense is the strength of the top-half of the 2024 draft, and Levshunov seems like the obvious pick, given his perceived high-end upside and track record of offensive production in the NCAA at such a young age. Some scouts differ, but it appears (for now) that Levshunov is the consensus top blueliner in the draft, and Anaheim snaps him up.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Anton Silayev, LHD, Torpedo

It’s difficult to imagine a smooth-skating, 6’7 monster of a defenseman with arguably the highest upside of any blueliner in this draft slipping out of single-digit pick territory, and in this mock, it’s Columbus that takes the plunge. The Blue Jackets aren’t lacking for defensemen in their pipeline — they have David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk, in addition to core NHL piece Zach Werenski — but that wouldn’t box out Silayev, and if anything, it would allow them the ability to be patient with a prospect who qualifies as more of a project than the other blue-chip blueliners available. Silayev is a risk, as he could end up landing in Tyler Myers territory as an NHLer, but the Russian Victor Hedman outcome isn’t off the table, either. That’s just going to be too enticing for at least one team in the top-5 to pass on.

5. Montreal Canadiens: Cayden Lindstrom, C, Medicine Hat

Perhaps the selections of Juraj Slafkovsky in 2022 and David Reinbacher in 2023 are coloring my view of Montreal’s draft strategy, but in recent years they’ve appeared to prioritize size and strength over skill and flash. Sure, the tiny Lane Hutson is one of their top prospects, while Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield are their highest-paid forwards. But they do seem focused on balancing out their long-term lineup as a result of their relative lack of size up at the top right now. Are they finished with that task? Unclear. Lindstrom would certainly continue the trend, though, and give Montreal a formidable Suzuki-Lindstrom-Dach 1-2-3 punch down the middle for years to come. He also has the raw physical tools to develop into a 1C, so it’s an upside play as well.

6. Utah: Sam Dickinson, LHD, London

Dickinson strikes me as the “safe” defenseman choice at the top of this draft. He doesn’t quite pop physically the same way that Levshunov and Silayev do, nor does he have the ridiculous stats of Zayne Parekh in juniors or Zeev Buium in college. Instead, Dickinson is just good at everything, with an extremely low bust potential and the upside to be a no-frills, set-it-and-forget-it top-pair NHL defenseman in the Alex Pietrangelo vein. Maybe that lack of pizzazz leads him to slip a bit down draft boards, but I can’t imagine it will be very far. In this mock, it’s Utah that looks to nab that stabilizing force in anticipation of their relocation.

7. Ottawa Senators: Zayne Parekh, RHD, Saginaw

The run on defensemen (unsurprisingly) continues. Ottawa goes back and forth between Parekh and Buium (and are tempted by Tij Iginla), but with most of their defensive organizational depth on the left side (Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot, Jakub Chychrun, even prospect Tyler Kleven), tie goes to the right-shooting Parekh, who comes with legitimate risk given his defensive shortcomings, but enormous potential reward as a dynamic offensive threat from the back end.

8. Seattle Kraken: Zeev Buium, LHD, University of Denver

I find it difficult to imagine that an organization that values analytics to the degree that the Kraken do — especially in the draft process — would pass up on Buium, who put up ridiculous production (50 points in 42 games) as a college freshman in his draft year for a premier program. Add in their organizational need for a blue-chip defenseman with top-pair potential, and Buium seems like the logical choice here given how the draft board has fallen thus far.

9. Calgary Flames: Tij Iginla, W/C, Kelowna

Frankly, I would be impressed if Calgary actually has the guts to pass on Jarome Iginla’s son if their scouts have another player ranked higher. This just seems like the no-brainer floor for the fast-rising Tij.

10. New Jersey Devils: Beckett Sennecke, W, Oshawa

Speaking of fast risers, Sennecke appears to be the Cutter Gauthier of this class. No, not in the sense of a player reneging on a past verbal commitment to sign with the team that drafted him; one who surges up draft boards as scouting departments come together and deliver their final evaluations. Sennecke really turned heads with his performance during the OHL playoffs for Oshawa, and based on the scuttlebutt around the league, there’s a very good chance Sennecke goes even higher than No. 10. Given the sheer number of high-end defensemen available at the top of this draft, though, this is the earliest I can confident slot him.

Berkly Catton would be intriguing here for NJ, but I wonder if the Devils would add yet another small forward to that mix. I could see Carter Yakemchuk given his talent, size, and the edge with which he plays, but with Luke Hughes and Šimon Nemec, do they really want to be developing a third blue-chip defenseman at the NHL level as they look to chase down Stanley Cups? On the other hand, Sennecke brings size and the kind of high-end puck skill that the Devils tend to value, in addition to looking like a seamless stylistic fit into the long-term top-six fronted by Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier.

11. Buffalo Sabres: Konsta Helenius, C/W, Tappara

When it comes to the Sabres’ pick, I truly find it difficult to guess which direction they might go. Catton certainly fits their recent high-pick mold of skill/production over size concerns, but after selecting Matthew Savoie in 2022 and Zach Benson in 2023, would they go to that well yet again or worry about an emerging redundancy of skillset? Yakemchuk would fill the perceived need for more toughness without sacrificing skill, but with all of Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Mattias Samuelsson and now Bowen Byram on the back end, do they really need yet another young blueliner? Cole Eiserman is intriguing here, but they already have Jack Quinn as a pure shooter prospect on the wing.

Buffalo has more than enough high-end young talent. They’ve just had trouble finding a way to make all of their pieces fit together. Which is why I’m ultimately going with Helenius here. He might not grade out as a likely star in my eyes, but he does strike me as the ideal connector — a high-hockey IQ forward who can support all of those more dynamic youngsters already in the Sabres’ mix. And it’s not like there aren’t scouts who believe Helenius could be a star, trusting that his smarts are enough to carry him to that level.

12. Philadelphia Flyers: Carter Yakemchuk, RHD, Calgary (WHL)

Honestly, if both Yakemchuk and Catton are available at No. 12, I’m not sure which the Flyers would prefer. But I don’t think Catton — for all of his dynamic upside — would be a lock selection in that scenario for Philadelphia.

For starters, Yakemchuk also fits the bill as a “big swing” shot at high-end talent — given his size, puck skills, and rapidly-improving skating technique, he absolutely has top-pair (and maybe even No. 1 d-man) potential if he hits. Second, the Flyers have tremendous faith in their revamped player development department (and NHL assistant coach Brad Shaw, eventually) — a necessity for taking the relatively raw Yakemchuk.

Third, the Flyers’ front office has made it abundantly clear that they believe in the importance of having size in their blueline corps, and with the small-ish Jamie Drysdale and Cam York both as locked-in future pieces, they’re lacking the kind of nasty, physically-imposing presence in their future top-four that Yakemchuk could theoretically provide. Finally, the jury is very much out on whether Catton will be able to stick at center in the NHL, or if he’ll need to move over to wing. If the Flyers’ scouts determine that he’s a likely wing, it would make more sense to take a potential 1D (if they believe Yakemchuk has that upside) over a 1LW. Add in the classic hockey traditionalist concerns about whether Catton + Michkov would make the Flyers too small up front even if Catton does stick in the middle, and I could see them leaning Yakemchuk here.

Personally, I’d take Catton in this scenario. But a Yakemchuk pick wouldn’t be a reach value-wise, nor out of line with organizational priorities and thinking.

13. Minnesota Wild: Stian Solberg, LHD, Valerenga

Would the Wild actually pass up on Catton here? Perhaps not — they certainly could use more high-end skill up front, and Marco Rossi is no guarantee to develop into the true 1C that Minnesota so desperately needs. But there have been rumblings that Wild GM Bill Guerin is focused on making his team bigger and tougher to play against, and Catton doesn’t really fit either of those boxes. The late-rising Solberg (both Corey Pronman and Craig Button now have him in their respective top 15s) — who impressed at the World Championships against pros for Norway earlier this month — very much does, given his size and penchant for physical play. Brock Faber was a revelation last season on the back end for Minnesota, but beyond him, they have a rapidly-aging blueline group and not much on the way in terms of potential top-of-the-lineup support. If Minnesota believes Solberg has untapped offensive upside — and it sure seems like more and more scouts and teams are becoming convinced — he becomes a reasonable lottery pick.

14. San Jose Sharks: Berkly Catton, C/W, Spokane

The Sharks don’t have the luxury of picking for positional need — their real “need” right now is as many high-upside, potential top-of-the-lineup prospects as possible in order to fuel their rebuild. The presence of Celebrini and 2023 4th overall pick Will Smith make it less essential for Catton to remain in the middle at the NHL level, nor does it completely box him out over the long-term if he can indeed thrive at center. Coming out of this first round with both Celebrini and Catton would be an absolute coup for a club that just a few months ago seemed in about as hopeless a situation that existed in the NHL (outside of the now team-less Arizona).

15. Detroit Red Wings: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, W, Mora IK

Personally, I’m not convinced the Red Wings have accumulated enough high-end talent to truly turn the corner into legitimate title contention, but my guess is that GM Steve Yzerman very much does believe that already has his long-term stars, and is now focused more on adding the right complementary players around them. Brandsegg-Nygård very much fits that mold, the same way that his last two first round forward picks (Nate Danielson and Marco Kasper) did. He just screams “Yzerman pick,” from his high pace to his forechecking acumen to his high hockey IQ. Cole Eiserman would be the bigger swing, but Brandsegg-Nygård’s game is so clearly translatable into a NHL middle-six role that I find it difficult to imagine Yzerman will pass.

16. St. Louis Blues: Adam Jiricek, RHD, Plzen

The Blues think long and hard about Cole Eiserman here, but in the end, their glaring organizational weakness at defenseman — especially given the strength of this class in that regard — is just too much too ignore. A big, strong skating right-shot blueliner (and the brother of 2022 sixth overall pick David), Jiricek spent most of 2023-24 out with injury, and if he had been healthy, there’s a good chance he could have ended up right with the top-tier blueliners in the scouting community’s estimation. St. Louis snaps him up, figuring that at No. 16, the upside of adding a likely-to-be-quality top-4 RHD with potential top-pair upside if he can quickly get back on his ideal developmental track far outweighs the risks that come with not being able to scout him much this season.