PHLY NHL mock draft v 2.0 -- Lottery Edition

The NHL Draft, at long last, is this week.

But how might the first round shake out for the Philadelphia Flyers?

Back in late May, I produced my first attempt at a mock draft of the first round, largely driven by my perception of past drafting tendencies and organizational needs. But over the past month, the NHL Combine provided more information regarding the prospects, more on-the-ground information has leaked out regarding potential team preferences, and final public draft rankings have been released.

It’s time for a second attempt at predicting Round 1.

This mock draft won’t include any trades, including the Flyers’ rumored trade-up to No. 7 with Ottawa. If such a trade happens, perhaps a version 3.0 mock might prove necessary. But for now, let’s stick with the picks as they stand today.

As was the case last time, we’ll start with the lottery portion of the first round — the first 16 selections, including the Flyers’ first pick at No. 12. This section of the mock draft will be free to all, while tomorrow’s full-round mock will be accessible to Diehard members only.

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1. San Jose Sharks: Macklin Celebrini, C, Boston University

This was a foregone conclusion from the second that San Jose won the lottery. It’s a no-brainer selection, and potentially a franchise-changing one for the Sharks. Next.

2. Chicago Blackhawks: Artyom Levshunov, RHD, Michigan State University

By all accounts, this pick is down to Levshunov and Ivan Demidov. It sounds like Demidov came off very well in interviews with the Blackhawks last week at the Gold Star camp down in Florida, though he wasn’t able to do any on-ice work due to the knee injury he suffered at the end of the season. Add in the fact that Demidov measured taller than expected, and what appeared a couple weeks ago to be a foregone conclusion at No. 2 is now back in question.

That said, I do think Chicago ultimately goes with Levshunov. They’ve been scouting him heavily all season and met with the Belarusian multiple times over the course of his draft year, as Levshunov himself acknowledged at the combine. Plus, NHL scouts are drooling over Levshunov’s upside — he’s viewed as player with legitimate top-pair potential, with all the physical tools needed (and he shoots righthanded as a bonus). They already their future 1C; now they try to get their future 1D.

3. Anaheim: Anton Silayev, LHD, Torpedo

If Chicago does pick Levshunov, this selection becomes much more difficult to project. Levshunov would be the Ducks’ no-brainer choice if available — the scuttlebutt is that they want to take a defenseman, and ideally, a right-shot d-man after trading away Jamie Drysdale last season. But No. 3 would be very high for Carter Yakemchuk, and Zayne Parekh’s stock appears to slipping ever so slightly in the lead-up to the draft — even if he’s about as close to a Drysdale replacement as Anaheim will ever find.

Assuming they do indeed go blueliner, that leaves Silayev, Sam Dickinson and Zeev Buium as options. Frankly, Buium best fits the mold of what the Ducks scouting department has valued in the past, and I strongly considered him at this spot; it would certainly be a popular pick, given Buium’s Southern California roots. But in the end, the sheer upside of Silayev is too high for the Ducks to pass up.

4. Columbus Blue Jackets: Cayden Lindstrom, C, Medicine Hat

Another difficult pick to mock, given the fact that Silayev has long been linked to Columbus as a likely option at No. 4. But if he’s gone, I’m banking on new GM Don Waddell falling in love with the idea of pairing the physical freak Lindstrom with their 1C of the future Adam Fantilli for a monster 1-2 punch down the middle.

Aside from the long-term injury concerns surrounding Lindstrom — which appear to have diminished significantly league-wide in the wake of the combine — the main worry from scouts is that his style of play might be better suited to wing than center long-term. That wouldn’t be the end of the world for Columbus, given the presence of Fantilli — in fact, it could prove to be a bonus, with Lindstrom moving up on occasion to play wing with Fantilli the same way that Leon Draisaitl does with Connor McDavid in Edmonton.

5. Montreal Canadiens: Ivan Demidov, W/C, SKA St. Petersburg

This would be an extremely funny selection, given Montreal’s decision in 2023 to pass on fellow Russian Matvei Michkov in the same spot. But indications are that they are far more positively predisposed towards Demidov than they were Michkov, which makes sense. Demidov is bigger than Michkov, and doesn’t come with the same character concern rumblings that accompanied last year’s top Russian forward prospect. Also, it will set two of the league’s craziest fanbases in Montreal and Philadelphia against each other for the next decade, desperate to prove their Russian is the superior one, and who doesn’t want to watch that?

6. Utah Hockey Club: Beckett Sennecke, W, Oshawa

I keep hearing to expect Sennecke to go high, and this seems like a logical spot for a team to take the plunge. I could certainly see Dickinson or Buium in particular as an option here, or even the mild reach on Yakemchuk. But Utah does have a solid blueline pipeline already with Dmitri Simashev (last year’s 6th overall pick), the 6’7 Maveric Lamoureux and 2019 first rounder Victor Söderström. They don’t need to take a blueliner.

Sennecke brings the size they’ve been prioritizing up front to counterbalance their small young guys like Clayton Keller and Logan Cooley, and his plausible upside is through the roof given his recent growth spurt and high-end puck skills. Lot of different directions Utah could go with this pick, but I do believe the hype that Sennecke goes early, and this is a realistic spot if that proves true.

7. Ottawa Senators: Tij Iginla, W/C, Kelowna

Iginla is another fast-rising forward, who scouts and teams seem to be coming around on as a potential star, not merely a quality top-six NHL forward. From the outside, Ottawa appears to be a team with a “mix” problem, not a talent problem, and Iginla screams high-character player, in addition to having the upside to be an impact scorer. All of Calgary collectively sighs when this pick is announced.

8. Seattle Kraken: Zeev Buium, LHD, University of Denver

I have it stuck in my head that this is the floor for Buium — it’s mostly that I can’t imagine an organization which values analytics as much as Seattle does passing on a blueliner who put up historic results as a draft-year college freshman. Add in the general consensus that the Kraken are likely to lean defense with this pick, and it just seems like a logical spot for Buium, one of my favorite prospects in the draft.

9. Calgary Flames: Carter Yakemchuk, RHD, Calgary

In a way, it might be a blessing in disguise if Tij Iginla is gone before No. 9. The pressure on the kid to live up to his father’s Hall of Fame career would be enormous, and the Flames frankly need to address their blueline more than nabbing a prospect likely to end up at wing in the NHL.

Yakemchuk has been playing in their backyard with the Hitmen, so Calgary has surely scouted him extensively. And while there’s serious risk here, Yakemchuk possesses legitimate top-pair — perhaps even No. 1 — potential, and the Flames don’t have a single U25 defenseman in their pipeline close to a lock to even being an top-four NHL blueliner. They’re also in that weird rebuild/retool middle-ground where they really should be taking big swings whenever possible, given the fact that a full-scale teardown that could have them picking in the top-five for multiple seasons seems unlikely or even impossible, given the contracts on their books. Yakemchuk is the epitome of a “big swing.”

10. New Jersey Devils: Sam Dickinson, LHD, London

Do the Devils really need another high-end blueliner prospect, given the presence of both Luke Hughes and Šimon Nemec on their NHL roster? Probably not. But the Devils are the unique position of not really needing any one thing — they even addressed their goalie hole last week with the Jacob Markström trade. So they can afford to just nab a player like Dickinson who, at least in this mock, falls further than he should.

He’s also a logical fit for NJD, given that the biggest concern surrounding Dickinson is that he may not have true top-of-the-lineup upside. It’s not a concern I personally share, but in New Jersey, he doesn’t necessarily have to be a top-pair defenseman anyway — Hughes and Nemec are pegged for those roles. And if Dickinson does turn into an Alex Pietrangelo-level NHL defenseman as his biggest fans believe he can, then the Devils suddenly have a true embarrassment of riches on the back-end for the next decade.

11. Buffalo Sabres: Konsta Helenius, C, Tappara

It makes perfect sense that the Sabres, from what has been rumored and what I’ve heard, are seriously shopping the No. 11 pick. It’s looking more and more likely that the best players available at that pick will be small-ish forwards or small-ish skilled defensemen — two archetypes that Buffalo really doesn’t need right now. Their prospect pool is teeming with the former (Zach Benson, Matthew Savoie, Noah Östlund, Isak Rosen), and with high-skilled players like Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Bowen Byram on their NHL back end already, it’s tough to see where a player like Zayne Parekh would even fit — third-pair sheltered power play specialist? That’s the definition of a luxury pick.

As a result, I do wonder if Buffalo reaches a bit here if they choose to keep the pick — maybe they figure one of Stian Solberg or Michael Brandsegg-Nygård brings an element that the big club is lacking, while also being relatively close to NHL readiness. But I do like the idea of the Sabres convincing themselves of the value of good-at-everything Helenius here, who strikes me as the type of high hockey IQ player who can help all of those high-skilled forwards in the system reach their respective ceilings.

12. Philadelphia Flyers: Berkly Catton, C/W, Spokane

Yeah, I’m giving the Flyers Catton. I feel pretty good about the chances of Catton falling out of the single-digits, given my read on team preferences and organizational needs. Yes, either New Jersey or Buffalo could certainly take the big swing on talent, figuring that even if Catton doesn’t exactly fit an archetype of significant organizational need, he’s simply the obvious BPA and needs to be snapped up, but it’s far from a guarantee.

BPA is what I suspect the Flyers would do in this scenario. Zayne Parekh’s upside is tantalizing, even if the Flyers are already stacked on the right side for years to come (Drysdale, Oliver Bonk, Travis Sanheim) and Parekh’s upside is something close to what the Flyers seem to believe Drysdale can become, given the tutelage they believe they can provide. Grabbing a high-end goal scoring winger like Cole Eiserman to replace Cutter Gauthier will be tempting. I’m sure even a mild reach like Stian Solberg will be appealing to an organization that believes strongly in constructing a blueline corps with size, and remaining true to its long-standing identity as a physically-intimidating club.

But as general manager Daniel Briere made it clear last week, the Flyers are still focused on taking big swings when they can, and Catton very much qualifies as one. Plus, he’s a center, and while there’s no guarantee he’ll stick there at the NHL level, there are plenty who believe he can. The Flyers, by Briere’s own admission, are in desperate need of centers in their pipeline. Catton would check both the big swing and org need box in one fell swoop.

13. Minnesota Wild: Zayne Parekh, RHD, Saginaw

The current scuttlebutt around the league is that Parekh might prove to be the odd-man out in terms of slipping to the bottom of the draft’s top-tier, in large part due to concerns over his size and defensive acumen. I’m still uncomfortable with the idea of the defenseman who helped lead Saginaw to a Memorial Cup slipping all the way to the teens, but it’s at least plausible. I find it difficult he’d make it past Minnesota, though, even with GM Bill Guerin continually hinting he wants his club to get bigger. They also need to get a lot more talented on the back end, especially with Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin in the latter halves of their respective careers. Parekh would be a golden opportunity to do just that.

14. San Jose Sharks: Stian Solberg, LHD, Valerenga

The general consensus is that the Sharks will be looking to go defenseman with their second pick after nabbing Celebrini at No. 1. If Parekh somehow slips to No. 14, I imagine Mike Grier would run up to the podium to pick him. But in this scenario, the top two defensemen available are Solberg and Adam Jiricek, with maybe an argument for E.J. Emery on the part of some scouts.

Jiricek’s stock has gone down this year due to his knee injury and underwhelming offensive start to his draft year. Solberg’s stock has soared, especially in the wake of his impressive work at the World Championships for Norway, as scouts are falling in love with his brand of violence on the back end and the possibility that he possesses still-untapped scoring and puck-moving potential. My general rule is to go with the player possessing the most momentum when projecting picks in situations like this, so I’ll guess Solberg over Jiricek.

15. Detroit Red Wings: Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, W, Mora IK

Brandsegg-Nygård is one of the few picks that holds from my mock draft in late May, because it just seems so much like a classic Detroit-era Steve Yzerman draft pick, right in line with his recent selections of players like Nate Danielson and Marco Kasper. Personally, I’d go with Cole Eiserman or Michael Hage here. But I’m guessing Yzerman will love the pro-ready, two-way stalwart Norwegian.

16. St. Louis Blues: Adam Jiricek, RHD, Plzen

The writers most plugged into the Blues’ thinking seem to believe this will be a choice between Jiricek and Solberg, as St. Louis is thinking defenseman here. Plus, Jiricek isn’t a reach at all — this is right around his expected range. Just a logical, no-drama selection for the Blues.