Revisiting the Case for Josh Hader to the Phillies

The Phillies’ sleepy off-season continues as 2023 comes to a close.

In some ways, the quiet December is not surprising. Locking up Aaron Nola (or landing a Nola replacement) was the club’s top off-season priority. After signing Nola to a seven-year, $172 million deal in November, the Phillies were left without any glaring holes on the roster. They’re widely expected to add a bat to the outfield mix and a pitcher to the bullpen. But opportunities to make a splash in either market are extremely limited.

At Major League Baseball’s winter meetings earlier this month, manager Rob Thomson indicated that he expects improvement to come from within the organization. Thomson cited higher expectations for veterans Bryce Harper (who played just 126 games in 2023) and Trea Turner (who posted a .236/.289/.367 slash line through August 4 last season), as well as room for growth from younger players such as Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott. Thomson’s comments were in line with those from Phillies President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski, who has repeatedly called the roster “mostly set.”

A glance at the Phils’ roster confirms that there are very few areas that can be upgraded via free agency. The starting rotation was the best in baseball in 2023, according to FanGraphs. Schwarber is cemented at DH. In the infield, it’s difficult to envision a significant improvement over Realmuto, Harper, Stott, Bohm, and Turner.

In the outfield, unless and until defensive phenom Johan Rojas demonstrates improvement at the plate, the team plans to move forward with Nick Castellanos in right field and Brandon Marsh in center. While that plan seemingly opens up an opportunity in left field, a top-tier free agent would block Rojas’ eventual return to an everyday role. The most likely LF scenario for early 2024 involves some form of a platoon, with Jake Cave getting more playing time than most fans would like.

That leaves the bullpen. It’s a solid group, full of big arms. But it’s unclear how many of those arms can be trusted in the ninth inning. And the departure of Craig Kimbrel, who led the Phillies in saves by far in 2023, makes a high-leverage reliever the team’s most pressing need.

Kimbrel pitched 69 innings for the Phils in the regular season, earning an All-Star appearance for his excellent work in the first half. Near the end of the year, however, Kimbrel started to struggle. And he finally imploded in the National League Championship Series, allowing nine base runners and four runs in three disastrous innings pitched. When assessing what went wrong for Philadelphia in the NLCS against Arizona, it’s hard to avoid the conclusion that the Phils found themselves one trusted reliever short.

It’s no surprise, then, that Hader-to-the-Phillies speculation has persisted from early November through early and late December, despite no indication that the club has actively pursued the 29-year-old 5-time All Star. After all, will known wheeler-and-dealer Dombrowski really run back largely the same squad that just disappointed in the NLCS? Will the Phils’ principal owner, John “I want my f**king trophy back” Middleton, truly be content with essentially the same roster that fell short in 2023? Does Thomson love to mix and match his late-inning relievers so much that he’d pass on a guy who posted a 1.28 ERA last season? A guy who has struck out over 42% of the batters he’s faced in his career?

In many years, improving a postseason contender only at the margins and hoping for better luck would be a reasonable approach. As we head into 2024 though, the Phillies are clearly a tier below NL powerhouses Los Angeles and Atlanta on paper. With the addition of premier free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Vegas odds imply that the Dodgers have a 36% likelihood of winning the pennant. Atlanta’s odds imply that they have a 20% shot, and the Phils’ chances are pegged at 14%. The Phillies’ implied odds of winning the World Series are 9%.

Adding to the Phillies’ challenge, the Dodgers are rumored to be after Hader themselves. The closer’s expected 5-year, $100+ million price tag may be easier to swallow if it simultaneously improves the Phillies and keeps him away from the LA juggernaut.

To be extremely clear: the Phillies’ front office has given no outward indication that they are pursuing Josh Hader. Absent a blockbuster trade, however, the Phillies do not have many options to meaningfully move the needle on their championship odds. If the organization is looking for a true difference-maker, they should probably explore the idea of adding one of the best closers in baseball. Hader may be exactly the player the Phillies were missing in the 2023 postseason. And he may be exactly the player they need in 2024.

If you disagree, consider re-watching Kimbrel’s performance in the NLCS.