The Phillies Will Sign This Free Agent Relief Pitcher

Phillies fans will not remember Craig Kimbrel fondly. It is tough to forgive the 12.00 ERA and 9.00 WHIP he posted in a devastating National League Championship Series loss to Arizona.

Dirty Craig‘s one-year stint with the Phillies wasn’t terrible overall, however, and the team needs to replace the 69 high-leverage innings the right-hander handled last season. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 2023, striking out 94 batters and earning 23 saves. He was even one of the Phils’ All-Star Game representatives.

Never expected to rejoin the Phillies for 2024, Kimbrel signed a one-year contract with Baltimore this off-season. The Phils have some internal candidates to replace his high-leverage role (most notably, impressive young righty Orion Kerkering), but they probably need to search externally as well.

Similar to our look at the Phillies’ outfield free agent options, let’s examine the market for relief pitchers.

MLB.com lists 121 relievers who were looking for jobs at the beginning of this off-season, but 39 of them have already signed major- or minor-league deals (or retired).

The top reliever available is 29-year-old shutdown closer Josh Hader, a 5-time All Star with a career 0.94 WHIP who strikes out 15 batters per 9 innings. Hader would be a tremendous asset for any club.

But the Phillies have shunned the idea of a true everyday closer in recent years, preferring instead to mix and match their most trusted arms in close late-game situations. It is possible the organization makes an exception for a player as talented as Hader, but the guess here is that other teams will go after him more aggressively.

At the same time, the existing Phillies bullpen is too talented for the front office to go dumpster-diving, so we can probably stick to the top dozen or so relievers still on the market. Looking at the MLB website’s rankings, which the site sorts by 2023 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs), we find the following candidates below Hader:

• Hector Neris (RHP, 35 years old, 2.5 fWAR in 2023)
• Jakob Junis (RHP, 31, 2.0)
• Matt Moore (LHP, 35, 2.0)
• David Robertson (RHP, 39, 1.9)
• Ryan Brasier (RHP, 36, 1.7)
• Collin McHugh (RHP, 37, 1.7)
• Buck Farmer (RHP, 33, 1.6)
• Liam Hendriks (RHP, 35, 1.6)
• Aroldis Chapman (LHP, 36, 1.5)
• Jesse Chavez (RHP, 40, 1.5)
• Jordan Hicks (RHP, 27, 1.4)

A Phillies reunion with Hector Neris could make a lot of sense. He’s a known quantity and he’s no stranger to late-inning pressure, saving 84 games during his previous tour of duty with the Phils (2014-2021). On the other hand, Neris is 35, coming off a 1.71 ERA season, and likely looking to cash in on one last sizable multi-year deal.

Junis is interesting, because on a Phillies roster full of one-inning flamethrowers, he could be a multi-inning guy. He’s also more of a finesse pitcher than a power arm. In recent years, the Phillies have displayed a clear preference to bring in big arms with some control issues and coach them up (think Jose Alvarado or Gregory Soto). But maybe they mix Junis in as a change of pace?

Colin McHugh is 37, spent time on the injured list twice with shoulder inflammation in 2023, and is coming off one of his worst seasons in years. Pass.

Buck Farmer posted a 4.20 ERA in 2023 and has a 4.98 ERA in his 10-year career. Hard pass.

Liam Hendricks is recovering from Tommy John surgery and won’t be ready until at least late 2024. I wish him the best, but he’s not what the Phillies are looking for.

Matt Moore pitched well in 2022 and 2023, but his disastrous stint with the Phils in 2021 (6.29 ERA in 73 innings) likely disqualifies him from consideration. He also has a 4.36 ERA in his 12-year major league career. Additionally, Moore is a lefty, when the Phillies are probably looking for a RHP to form a trusted duo with star LHP Alvarado.

Think of 2022, when manager Rob Thomson could trust RHP Seranthony Dominguez or Alvarado in any situation. *That* flexibility is what the 2024 Phillies need.

Let’s eliminate the other LHP on the list, Aroldis Chapman, as well. He has the big arm that the Phillies love, but the 35-year-old is not the pitcher he was in his prime. The Phillies could be willing to go with a lefty for someone as talented as Hader, but Chapman doesn’t seem like the best guy to pair with Alvarado.

David Robertson would be a disappointing choice. He pitched reasonably well in 2023. But he is 39 and not exactly a fan favorite in Philadelphia. Ryan Brasier has Dave Dombrowski connections dating back to Dombrowski’s time in Boston. But Brasier had a roller-coaster 2023 season, and doesn’t seem like a great fit for a team already loaded with risky high-upside relief options. Jesse Chavez had a strong 2023 before he took a line drive to the leg. He’s 40 years old and doesn’t throw very hard, so it’s probably safe to cross Chavez off of our list.

Jordan Hicks, however, checks all the boxes. He is right-handed. He is only 27 years old. He has a fastball that sits in triple-digits and can touch 104(!) mph. Hicks has some experience as a closer, but has not indicated that he’s only willing to be a ninth-inning pitcher. And though Hicks will not come cheap, he’s not a break-the-bank acquisition because of his 3.85 career ERA and 4.9 career BB/9.

With the Phillies seemingly unwilling to go after a true superstar this off-season, Hicks is exactly the type of star-adjacent player that could give this Phillies team a lift. And he fits the exact profile of pitchers the Phils love to bring into the organization and work to improve.

There will be competition for his services, but Hicks to Philadelphia makes all the sense in the world.

Welcome to the Phillies, Jordan.