The seven most pivotal plays during Phillies' NLWC sweep of Marlins

Red October got a vibrant splash of color during the Philadelphia Phillies two-game sweep over the Miami Marlins in the National League Wild Card Series.

In a series where all of the biggest plays came from those in the red pinstripes, Philadelphia looked awfully similar to the club that ran through the National League last October and reached the 2022 World Series.

Using win probability added (WPA), a statistic that measures the value of an individual play on their team’s odds to win, these are seven of the most pivotal plays that extended the Phillies success at home with postseason wins no. 23 and 24 at Citizens Bank Park.  

Alec Bohm’s RBI double gives Philly the early 1-0 lead, WPA: .115

After the Phillies failed to capitalize in the first inning of Game One with two runners in scoring position and no outs, Bohm came through in the clutch with a two-out double that scored Johan Rojas and gave Philadelphia the early momentum.

Bohm had the third-most RBI on the club in 2023 and his best total of his four-year career. His 97 RBI over his 145 games played came from numerous spots in the lineup this season, and manager Rob Thomson’s confidence to bat Bohm third paid early dividends on Tuesday.

Jose Alvarado’s four-pitch domination thwarts Marlins’ comeback, WPA: -.094

Miami finally got to Wheeler in the seventh with a Josh Bell double, Jake Burger single and Bryan De La Cruz RBI-single. Thomson went to his bullpen for José Alvarado while Marlins’ manager Skip Schumaker went to his bench for two-time World Series champ Yuli Gurriel. On four pitches, Alvarado got Gurriel to chase a cutter down and out of the strike zone to avoid further damage.

Nick Castellanos’ RBI double gives the Phils some breathing room, WPA: .042

In the bottom of the eighth, Bryce Harper started the final rally in Game One with a single against lefty Steven Okert and an RBI double from Castellanos gave Philly an insurance run.

Post-game, Castellanos gave credit to the sold out crowd for the Phillies strong performance. “Man, I missed it. It felt like a continuation of last year. It was amazing.”

Kyle Schwarber’s RBI double starts night off right in a 2-run third, WPA: .126

It was always going to be an uphill battle for Miami after losing game one. And in Philadelphia? That upped things another level as the Phillies entered Game Two with a 13-4 (0.765) record all-time in clinching games, a mark that’s best in MLB history in the postseason (min. 10 games). Even more so, the club was 4-1 (0.800 win %) in clinching games at Citizens Bank Park.

Braxton Garrett broke out over his first full season with Miami, posting a 3.66 ERA over 31 games, including a 2.85 ERA on the road, third-best in MLB among pitchers with at least 12 starts.

Schwarber greeted the fellow lefty with an RBI-double to right in the third inning that scored Christian Pache. Trea Turner quickly responded with a line drive single to left that scored Schwarber and gave the Phillies an early 2-0 lead.

J.T. Realmuto’s home run applies further pressure on Fish, WPA: .074

Following a double off Garrett in their first (only) meeting, former teammate David Robertson was brought on to open the fourth inning and face Realmuto. The veteran catcher got behind 0-2 before fouling off two pitches during the seven-pitch at-bat and then lifting a 93.2 mph cutter 404 ft to left field to make it 3-0. It was Realmuto’s fourth postseason home run, having hit one in four consecutive playoff series that began in the NL Division Series last year. 

Aaron Nola’s inning-ending double play thwarts comeback, WPA: -.092

After three lackluster starts last postseason between the NLCS and World Series, Nola had a free agent season many were disappointed to see. He settled down a bit over his final seven starts of the regular season, taking advantage of the six-man rotation that allowed him to feel fresh for the start of October.

Not only did Nola spin seven scoreless for his first playoff win since the 2022 NLDS, he saved himself in the fifth during the Marlins greatest opportunity. With two runners aboard and only one out, Nola induced Jesus Sanchez into an inning-ending double play that brought the 45,738 in attendance to their feet. 

Bryson Stott’s grand slam punches Philly’s ticket for Atlanta, WPA: .052

The game already felt somewhat out of reach for the lifeless Marlins, who had only two hits after six innings at this point. In the bottom of the sixth, the 25-year-old second baseman hit a no-doubter for just the second postseason grand slam in franchise history. Stott is the fourth-youngest Phillie to homer in the postseason and matches Shane Victorino’s grand slam against C.C. Sabathia and the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2008 NLDS.