Three questions for the Phillies as spring training begins

The Phillies don’t have many big decisions to make in Clearwater this year… for better or worse.

Barring something unexpected, the rotation will consist of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, and Cristopher Sanchez.

The starting infield is set in stone, with JT Realmuto catching, Bryce Harper embarking on his first full year as a first baseman, Bryson Stott playing second base, Alec Bohm manning the hot corner, and Trea Turner working as Stott’s double-play partner at short.

In the outfield, despite some early offseason indications that Johan Rojas would have to compete for the center field job, the role seems to be his. Nick Castellanos is locked in as the right fielder, and Brandon Marsh will probably be in left field on Opening Day (though he’ll miss 3-4 weeks of spring training after some surgical cleanup in his left knee).

Kyle Schwarber will be the team’s Designated Hitter most days.

There will be some competition for bullpen roles. Right-handed options currently on the 40-man roster include Connor Brogdon, Max Castillo, Dylan Covey, Seranthony Dominguez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, Yunior Marte, Michael Mercado, McKinley Moore, Nick Nelson, Luis Ortiz, and Michael Rucker. Lefties include Kolby Allard, Jose Alvarado, Gregory Soto, and Matt Strahm.

Garrett Stubbs will reprise his role as backup catcher/good vibes ambassador, and Edmundo Sosa will return as a versatile backup infielder. Depending on whether the Phils carry 13 or 12 pitchers on the 26-man roster, one or two of the following players will likely round out the bench: Diego Castillo (R/R INF), Rodolfo Castro (S/R INF), Kody Clemens (L/R INF), Darick Hall (L/R 1B), Weston Wilson (R/R INF/OF), Jake Cave (L/L 1B/OF), and Cristian Pache (R/R OF).

Overall, we’re probably looking at a 2024 Phillies roster that very closely resembles the one that came up short in the 2023 NLCS. But there are a few questions that need to be answered before Opening Day.

What happens if Johan Rojas can’t hit?

The rhetoric around Johan Rojas has subtly changed over the course of the offseason.

In October 2023, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said, “I’m not going to anoint [Rojas] a position with our big league club next year. He has to be able to contribute some offensively or else then he has to go down [to the minors] and continue to develop.”

But Dombrowski struck a different tone during an interview with 94 WIP Sports Radio on February 7. Asked if Rojas would be the Phils’ starting center fielder, Dombrowski replied, “Likely, yes. Definitively, no . . . I think he can do enough offensively . . . and when you add his speed in there and his defense, he becomes a real plus.”

The Phillies are in a tough spot with Rojas. The 23-year-old has an incredible glove, but he slashed .093/.114/.163 in 45 postseason plate appearances. He hit .302 in 164 regular season plate appearances, but the consensus among baseball observers is that his batting average was bolstered by some good luck: Rojas batted .410 on balls that he put in play, and that figure is typically close to .300 for most major leaguers.

If Rojas hits well (or if he’s even serviceable at the plate) during spring training, he’ll probably be the team’s Opening Day center fielder. That would be the best-case outcome, and Rojas has certainly been putting in work this offseason to make it happen.

But, like… what if Rojas just can’t hit and needs more seasoning in the minors?

Plan B probably consists of playing Brandon Marsh almost every day in center field instead of left. Rob Thomson told reporters as much during the MLB winter meetings in November.

Ok. Cool cool cool. But, like… who would play left field in that scenario?

Barring a trade, we could be looking at a Cave/Pache platoon. The lefty-hitting Cave had a .663 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2023 (and a .391 OPS against LHP), while the righty-hitting Pache had a .924 OPS against left-handed pitching last season (and a .449 OPS against RHP). Pache is also a very talented defender and, while not as slick with the glove as Rojas, he may play center and bump Marsh to left when both are in the field.

It’s not the worst backup plan. But Cave often looked like he didn’t belong on a major league roster in 2023. And Pache’s gaudy OPS vs LHP in 2023 came in limited at-bats, while his career OPS vs LHP is a less-exciting .714.

Is there a Plan C? Well, the Phillies have reportedly pursued free agent outfielders this offseason, offering them a fourth-outfielder role with the expectation that they’d start about two games each week. That’s not an enticing job for high-tier free agents, but something could still come to fruition if a player looking for an everyday role in the majors is unable to find one. It would be surprising if the Phils acquire a big name for the outfield, because doing so would essentially block Rojas from the everyday role the organization hopes he earns.

Here’s the TLDR summary: The Phillies really need Johan Rojas to hit well enough to take the center field job.

How will the bullpen shape up?

The Phillies’ pen is full of big arms. Among the lefthanders, Alvarado is the top dog and will probably handle the highest leverage situations/close the most games. Matt Strahm proved to be one of the team’s most consistently reliable LHPs last season, and he is versatile enough to go multiple innings or even make spot starts. And LHP Gregory Soto was an all-star closer for Detroit before posting a disappointing 4.62 ERA with the Phils last season.

Among the righthanders, Jeff Hoffman had a career year in 2023 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. Orion Kerkering started last season playing single-A ball and ended it pitching meaningful innings for the Phillies in the postseason. And as recently as 2022, Seranthony Dominguez posted a 3.00 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP while striking out 10.8 batters per nine innings.

So the Phillies have some options here for high-leverage innings. But they also have some question marks, especially for the RHPs. Hoffman’s ERA was 5.68 in seven seasons before his outstanding 2023. Kerkering is just 22 years old. And it’s unclear what we can expect from Dominguez. Will he look like the pitcher with the 1.14 WHIP and 3.09 FIP from 2022, or the pitcher with the 1.40 WHIP and 4.84 FIP from 2023?

Before ultimately imploding in the postseason, Craig Kimbrel gave the Phillies 69 strong innings in 2023, saving 23 games and posting a 3.26 ERA. Even if Hoffman replicates his career year, the team is also going to need to lean on Dominguez and Kerkering as its primary RHPs in high-leverage spots.

Are they up to the challenge? Might some of the other, lesser-known, bullpen arms step up? Could the organization sign a free agent reliever, or trade for one? We shall see. The latest rumor is that the Phils are interested in Kenley Jansen.

TLDR: The Phillies have a good bullpen, but it’s unclear who will replace Kimbrel’s high-leverage duties.

Are there any free agent signings or trades on the horizon?

It’s been a big week for Phillies rumors. There are the aforementioned Kenley Jansen trade murmurs. Howard Eskin reported that the Phillies are talking to the Cleveland Guardians about RHP Emmanuel Clase and his career 2.00 ERA. “Several executives think the Philadelphia Phillies could be a sleeper for one of the remaining marquee free agents in starter Jordan Montgomery or center fielder Cody Bellinger,” reported Bob Nightengale. And even 2023 NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell has been linked to the Phils.

Talented MLB agents are masters at building buzz around their unsigned clients. The Philies, meanwhile, have been incredibly quiet this offseason despite having the resources to make a significant offer to pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. So it’s only natural to see the Phillies linked to the big names remaining on the free agent market.

Similarly, teams like the Guardians or Red Sox could be using the Phils to create buzz around players they’d be willing to trade, and/or to signal that their asking prices are steep.

So will anything actually happen?

Your guess is as good as mine, but my read is that the Phillies truly are content to “run it back” and take their chances with the core of the 2023 team in 2024. After all, the Phils probably did have enough talent to get past Arizona and Texas after dispatching the Braves in the NLDS. Dombrowski seems to be waiting on value, hoping the market doesn’t shape up as expected for a player or two. And if that doesn’t happen, the organization will roll with what it has.

On the other hand… the 2023 Phils didn’t get it done. Wouldn’t a team so close to a World Series trophy try to improve their roster somewhere? Anywhere? One would expect that a team forced to rely on young players like Rojas and Kerkering in the 2023 postseason wouldn’t want to show up for the 2024 season with the same weaknesses.

Dombrowski and manager Rob Thomson have consistently indicated that they expect improvement to come from players already on the roster. They’re high on Rojas and Kerkering. They often note that the team will get a full season from Bryce Harper. They expect to get a better full year out of Trea Turner.

All of those scenarios are reasonably likely. But other players could regress, of course. If there’s one certainty in baseball, it’s that nothing is certain. All you can do is stack the odds in your favor, and one more marquee player may put this Phillies team over the hump.

TLDR: The Phillies may make a move. But also, they may not. How’s that for #analysis???