With Noah Cates nearing a return to the lineup, who should sit? Breaking down the candidates

The Philadelphia Flyers are in the midst of their longest stretch of underwhelming play thus far in 2023-24.

The good news? They have at least one reinforcement on the way in Noah Cates, who was a key contributor for the club as a rookie last season. The bad news? A tough lineup decision is looming as a result.

Someone is going to have to make way for Cates — and soon.

When the Flyers announced the initial timeline for Cates’ return from a broken foot back on November 28, they projected a 6-to-8 week absence. The optimistic end of that timeline would have him back January 10 against the Montreal Canadiens — less than a week away. And given the fact that Cates began skating with the club on their just-concluded road trip, he appears to be right on that optimistic schedule.

Not every Flyers forward is a realistic option to sit for Cates, of course. Sean Couturier isn’t coming out of the lineup. Top scorer Travis Konecny will dress whenever he is capable of skating. It’s difficult to imagine the red-hot Joel Farabee or nightly staple Owen Tippett taking a seat, either.

Pretty much every other forward, however? His spot is far from set in stone.

It’s not even clear which position Cates will play upon his return — he’s been developed as a center at the NHL level since the start of last season, but he largely played wing as a prospect, and was moved back there for the very game in which he was injured (November 25).

Flyers head coach John Tortorella was enthused by that brief “audition” at his old position before the severity of his injury became clear, and very well may choose to put him back there. But even if Cates does return to the middle, a winger could still give way for him assuming that Scott Laughton moves off center and pushes another player out.

But which player will it be? Which one should it be? Let’s break down the most likely candidates.

Morgan Frost

Of course, we have to start with the possibility of Tortorella pressing his trusty “in case of emergency, bench Frost” button.

When Cates went down in the first place, it was an unfortunate event that nevertheless presented a major opportunity for Frost in particular. No longer would he need to worry about being shuffled in and out of the lineup — Frost would have over a month of uninterrupted playing time to prove he could get his season fully back on track.

So how has Frost done in those 17 straight games since his last scratching on November 24? As is often the case with Frost, it’s been a mix of good and meh.

First, the meh. For a forward viewed by the coaching staff as primarily an offensive weapon, seven points in 17 games isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Interestingly enough, Frost’s production at 5-on-5 has been mostly fine — a 1.89 Points/60 rate would have ranked him 144th in the NHL last season among regular forwards, in mid-tier second-liner territory. It’s been the lack of power play production that’s hurt him most: just one PP point in nearly 48 minutes.

The good news? Frost’s two-way results have never been better. Over the past 17 games, the Flyers have generated a whopping 59.74 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 (per Evolving-Hockey) when Frost has skated, and they’ve outscored their opponents 7 – 4 during that span as well. Good things have happened with Frost on the ice.

Given his solid scoring rates at 5-on-5, Tortorella would basically be benching Frost for the lack of PP production. A fair critique — except for the fact that he’s far from the only forward who has struggled in that situation since the Cates injury. It takes just two points to “lead” Philadelphia players in PP production over the past 17 games, with all of Sean Couturier, Cam York and Tyson Foerster currently tied for the honor. Frost has been poor on the PP, yes. But so has everyone else.

This isn’t to say a Morgan Frost benching can’t happen — just that it would seem unfair given the data. You know, just like some of Frost’s other scratches did.

Bobby Brink

Frost wasn’t the only forward in the regular scratch rotation prior to the Cates injury. In fact, it was Brink who took a seat the night that Cates broke his foot. And that was after sitting for three straight games in the middle of the month.

Basically, Brink and Frost were the go-to scratch options for Tortorella — likely because both fit the bill as “offense-only” players who weren’t producing points at elite levels and didn’t also receive regular PK time. They were the easiest players to sit without disrupting the overall forward rotation.

Like Frost, Brink has been a lineup staple since the Cates injury. And like Frost, his results have been fine, but not exceptional. Brink has eight points in 16 games since returning the lineup (slightly better than Frost) and a 51.78 percent xG For Percentage at 5-on-5 (still good, but measurably worse than Frost).

Basically, Brink isn’t setting the world on fire by the numbers. But he’s also not performing so poorly that he’s a glaring candidate for a benching. His offense has even started to pick up recently, as he has four points in his last six games.

That said, Brink remains a legitimate possibility to sit for a few reasons. First, it’s not like he’s blown the doors off over the past month. Second, Tortorella expressed frustration with Brink’s checking ability during the just-concluded road trip, and given the club’s current defensive issues, that’s not exactly a great sign for his lineup security. Finally, Tortorella directly noted back in November that he didn’t feel Brink necessarily had to play every single night to be properly developed — that some time up in the press box could actually be beneficial for him. It very much left the door open for future scratches.

That said, if Brink does take a seat for Cates, don’t expect it to last long. The coaching staff proved they would prioritize keeping Brink in the regular rotation back in November, when they returned him to the lineup with the Flyers in the midst of a four-game winning streak and just a day after upsetting the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights in overtime, despite the long-standing coach preference of not shaking things up when the team is rolling. He wouldn’t be out of the lineup for more than a few games.

But perhaps Tortorella could position a Brink benching as another one of those much-needed breaks, and essentially kick the scratch decision can down the road another week or so.

Ryan Poehling

Poehling, in many ways, would be the easy choice.

He’s already been scratched three times this season, but more importantly, he’s currently stationed in Cates’ most logical lineup spot: 3C. Simply swapping in Cates for Poehling would be the path of least resistance, as least at 5-on-5.

The biggest reason why that won’t happen? Tortorella and the coaches appear to be very happy with Poehling right now.

He’s spent the second half of December almost exclusively in the top-nine (pushing veteran Scott Laughton down to Line 4 in the process), and that’s not exactly treatment one would expect for a player on the verge of a scratch to be receiving. Poehling also has five points in his last nine games, and he’s formed a very effective PK duo with Garnet Hathaway.

That’s why he probably won’t get scratched. Why might there be a case to do so anyway, though? Mostly because even though the coaches have entrusted Poehling with the 3C role, he’s not exactly thriving in it. In fact, since December 14 — when he was bumped up to the third line — Poehling has posted an ugly 36.03 percent on-ice xG share at 5-on-5. In other words, the Flyers are getting crushed from a scoring chance standpoint with Poehling in the 3C role.

But the answer to this (very legitimate) issue seems more to bump Poehling back down to Line 4, where he’s performed quite well by advanced metrics (53.82 percent xG For with Hathaway and Nicolas Deslauriers), rather than scratch him altogether, especially given the negative impact a full-fledged removal from the lineup could have on the PK. Plus, Poehling just turned 25 — like Brink (and Frost), he’s ideally someone the team would want to play in order to further develop, rather than sit.

It’s possible. But it feels like a longshot.

Nicolas Deslauriers

Of course, there’s also a scenario where Cates moves back into the top-nine, Poehling drops to Line 4, but doesn’t have both Hathaway and Deslauriers as his linemates: because Deslauriers is the healthy scratch — as he was on Tuesday.

The idea of Deslauriers serving as a healthy scratch appeared a pipe dream for most of the season, better suited for message board chatter in the stat-friendly corners of the internet. He’s the designated “protector” of the young players, after all, and beloved in the room for it. In addition, he was actually playing pretty effective hockey at 5-on-5 through the entirety of October, even if he wasn’t scoring much.

But on Tuesday night, the precedent of “Deslauriers has to be in the lineup” was broken, with the Flyers confirming to PHLY on Wednesday that Deslauriers indeed was a healthy scratch against Edmonton.

Now, perhaps this was a unique, special situation. Edmonton, after all, isn’t a team stocked with heavyweights and bruisers. They’re a speed team. There’s just less of a need for a policeman on a night when the main fear is keeping up with the pace of Connor McDavid and Company (consider that task failed, even without the presence of the slow-ish Deslauriers), especially on the road with less control over line matching.

Plus, Tortorella has made it clear that he doesn’t want Marc Staal to sit for too long even as he’s become the functional No. 7 on the depth chart — but Egor Zamula’s offense has finally begun to come around, and he wasn’t coming out of the lineup on Tuesday despite the fact that Staal had been a healthy scratch for four straight. So Deslauriers came out in this very specific instance.

Perhaps against most opponents — ones that play a more physical style and don’t have maybe the fastest functional skater in NHL history — Tortorella would deem Deslauriers’ presence essential.

It’s fair to note, however, that Deslauriers’ solid early-season 5-on-5 results haven’t lasted. The regression isn’t looming; it already happened.

• October: 56.88 percent xG share at 5-on-5
• November: 39.59%
• December: 36.09%

Purely from a statistical standpoint, Deslauriers should be the one to sit for Cates. His advanced metrics have been terrible since November. He has just three points in 36 games. He’s not even a PK regular anymore, so he lacks that lineup security as well. And now, the coaching staff has broken the taboo on scratching him.

That said, I remain skeptical that the coaches would sit Deslauriers for an extended period of time, as they did with Frost in October. Right or wrong, they view his protective presence to be too important for the younger players, in terms of helping them to play with confidence and aid in their development.

Scott Laughton

And now we get to the spicy, attention-grabbing options.

Laughton is undeniably having a disappointing season. 16 points in 37 games really isn’t terrible; it’s right in line with his scoring pace in three of his last five seasons. But three goals just isn’t going to cut it, and even more of a concern is the fact that his 5-on-5 impacts have fallen off a cliff. For years, one could trust Laughton to fall somewhere in the 50th to 70th percentile in terms of his impact on the Flyers’ xG differential at even strength — this year, he’s way down in the 18th percentile. It’s been rough.

But is a disappointing season enough for a benching?

Laughton has shown signs of life in recent games, emerging as one of the drivers of the team’s furious comeback in Detroit and picking up a big shorthanded assist in Seattle. He’s also a key piece of the Flyers’ most dangerous PK duo with Travis Konecny, combining for five of the team’s league-high nine shorthanded goals. Add in the fact that he’s still the only player on the team wearing a leadership letter, and a Laughton scratch seems unlikely.

Yes, he was recently demoted to the fourth line. But Tortorella likes to have a Swiss Army Knife style player in his nightly lineup in case of injuries/penalties, and assistant coach Brad Shaw surely wants to keep his best attacking PK duo together. And if they’re going to scratch a fourth liner with plus intangibles, why not Deslauriers, who has worse results and a smaller role than Laughton does?

Cam Atkinson

Laughton at least is showing some signs of returning to past form. Atkinson, on the other hand, only appears to be falling deeper into the depths of his current slump.

The last time Atkinson lit the lamp was way back on November 11 — 22 games ago. He finished December with just four total points. He hasn’t been driving play for three weeks now.

And on Tuesday, he took a brutal tripping penalty at the worst possible time: just after the Flyers had tied the Oilers and were mere minutes away from hitting the second intermission with that score holding. Instead, Atkinson tripped Evan Bouchard, Edmonton scored on the ensuing PP, and the Flyers lost their third straight game.

Yes, a healthy scratch could easily be justified.

Atkinson is being used as an all-situations player this season. But does he deserve to be? He hasn’t produced a single PP point since November, and Cates could easily replace him alongside Couturier on the third PK duo once he returns to action, rather than pushing Couturier back to the utility penalty killing role he was in before Cates went down. After all, both Couturier and Cates’ PK metrics (goal and chance-based) are better than those of Atkinson.

Atkinson isn’t producing at all on the PP, and they’ll have six other PK forwards fully capable of executing Brad Shaw’s system once Cates returns. Atkinson really doesn’t need to be in the lineup right now.

But would John Tortorella actually sit Atkinson? That’s the big question.

It’s not that Torts doesn’t realize that Atkinson is struggling; he’s noted it publicly on multiple occasions. But the coaching staff appears more focused on getting Atkinson going than punishing him for underwhelming play. Even on Tuesday, he finished second among Flyers forwards in ice time with 19:31 minutes, and got seven more shifts in the third period after his awful penalty. That’s not usage hinting at a looming scratch.

A long leash for Atkinson could be justified, especially if it’s a lower-upside player like Deslauriers or Poehling or even Laughton who sits upon Cates’ return. Atkinson’s ceiling is that of a solid goal scorer if he can regain his pre-injury form. Players like Deslauriers and Poehling just don’t have that kind of upside. But if Atkinson remains in the lineup, it’s likely in large part because of the trust that exists between player and coach. Tortorella and Atkinson go way back; he coached him for six years in Columbus and helped Atkinson to his best seasons as a pro. That can’t be ignored as a factor here.

If Atkinson remains in the lineup, it’s because Tortorella is convinced that his longtime player will reward his faith with a slump-busting surge in the near future. Because by the numbers, he deserves to be in danger of a spot in the press box.

What should happen, and what will happen

It’s certainly possible that before Noah Cates returns from his broken foot, another Flyers forward becomes unavailable, and there is no need for a tough lineup decision.

But otherwise, John Tortorella has a big choice looming.

My opinion? Move Nicolas Deslauriers into spot-start duties, only checking in against especially physical, fight-centric clubs. Against a club like Minnesota with bruisers like Pat Maroon, Marcus Foligno and Brandon Duhaime, and a league-high 18 fights this season? Sure, bring Deslauriers in to make the kids feel better. But against opponents like St. Louis (five fights, 18th in hits/60) or Dallas (five fights, last in hits/60)? He might not be necessary.

And on the nights that he is? Sit the poorest performing other forward — which right now appears to be Atkinson.

That’s not how I suspect Tortorella will manage the situation, however.

Tuesday’s scratch of Deslauriers shows that Tortorella is willing to sit his enforcer in certain matchups. But my guess is those scratches will come sparingly. Nor am I expecting Atkinson to be relegated to the press box just yet, given Tortorella’s appreciation for his upside and the strong trust level between the two.

The hard truth is that Frost and Brink are the two other players who would require the least amount of shakeup to the current lineup in the event of a scratching (due to their lack of PK usage), and neither has exploded offensively in the wake of the Cates injury. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Tortorella simply reverts back to the pre-injury scratch rotation (Brink and Frost), with maybe a few more Deslauriers nights off sprinkled in.

It wouldn’t be the eye-catching decision, or even necessarily the right one. But it would be in line with the coaching staff’s choices to this point in 2023-24.

Stay tuned.