Flyers Mailbag: Deadline plans, prospect timelines, future blueline corps

Yesterday was the Diehard edition of the Flyers Mailbag. Today, we open the floor to the masses.

It’s officially the quiet part of the NHL offseason, and despite the brief burst of activity on the Flyers’ part last week, August should be relatively uneventful before the lead-up to training camp in September takes center stage. Appropriately, the mailbag for July (I’m still counting it as a July Mailbag) lacks a common theme. Some fans want to look ahead to the 2024-25 season; others want to talk prospects; still others have 2026 on their minds; and some just want to chat music.

Onto the questions (and answers).

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@hockeylover695: Will the Flyers be buying at the deadline if they are in a playoff position, or will they do the same thing they did last season?

I’ll answer with no, but a soft no.

I do not think the Philadelphia Flyers are entering this season with any plans to be trade deadline buyers. If the club more or less repeats their 2023-24 campaign in terms of competitiveness — rolling along at about a 90-point pace, remaining in the thick of the playoff race but never exiting the bubble — they won’t be looking to add at the deadline. They’ll just let it ride. I wouldn’t expect a big sell in the vein of Sean Walker, since their two most attractive pending UFAs (Travis Konecny and Garnet Hathaway) were both re-signed this summer. But no, in that scenario, they won’t pivot to buying. They’ll stick to their long-term plan.

There is a caveat, however. Let’s say Matvei Michkov explodes onto the NHL scene as a fully-formed star. Multiple U25 players take big steps forward and emerge as borderline stars of the Konecny ilk. Sam Ersson (or Ivan Fedotov) establishes himself as a clear-cut No. 1 starting NHL goalie. Suddenly, the Flyers aren’t hanging around the playoff bubble; they’re up there with Carolina and the Rangers and the Devils, battling for the Metropolitan Division title.

That would change things. Then, it would look like the Flyers are simply arriving ahead of schedule, and might actually have the juice for a legitimate playoff run. If that’s how the season plays out, I could see general manager Daniel Briere being convinced to accelerate their timeline, sure.

But barring a best-case scenario season that truly looks like a sustainable step into true contention? Yeah, I suspect Briere will remain conservative at the deadline.

@AjYonderly: What’s the timeline for the next top five prospects to make the team?

First, we have to establish the Flyers’ top-5 prospects, assuming that we’re now removing Michkov from the list, given the fact that he’s essentially a lock to make the team out of camp. Based on our February list, the five best non-Michkov prospects in the organization are Oliver Bonk, Emil Andrae, Samu Tuomaala, Denver Barkey, and Alexei Kolosov. Let’s replace Kolosov with Jett Luchanko, for multiple reasons.

I’d be shocked if Bonk made the Flyers out of camp this coming September. Bonk himself even noted at development camp that he knows he’s unlikely to make the NHL club. Perhaps if he absolutely blows the doors off in rookie camp and in preseason, he’d earn a 9-game audition. But I’m saying it right now: Bonk will not spend the 2024-25 season with the Flyers. He’s going back to London to finish out his junior career. The 2025 training camp will be the first truly competitive camp for him, and while I’m not necessarily expecting him to win a job for Game 1, I suspect he’ll at least play an NHL game at some point in 2025-26.

Emil Andrae, of course, already has appeared in NHL games. He’s not far from full-time readiness, and I fully expect he’ll get a long look with the Flyers at some point in 2024-25, probably when injuries strike the back end.

With regards to Tuomaala, I’ve heard that they intend upon starting him out with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms next season. He battled injury and dropped off over the final couple months of the 2023-24 AHL campaign, and they’re not going to rush him to the NHL. If Tuomaala takes a further step in his second year in Lehigh, however? I could see him earning a call-up this season. I’d peg his true arrival timeline to be 2025-26, but he could play NHL games in 2024-25.

Denver Barkey has even less of a chance than Bonk of breaking camp with the Flyers in 2024-25. That’s not even a long shot; it’s essentially an impossibility. My guess is he’s looking at one year at least in the AHL after his junior career, too, just to prove he can hold up and physically handle professional hockey. Earliest Flyers arrival: 2026-27.

As for Luchanko, it’s just too early to project. If he delivers a monster Draft+1 season in 2024-25? Maybe he puts himself on the Travis Konecny fast-track and is in the mix as soon as 2025 training camp. Most likely, however, he’ll get two more years in juniors, and then they’ll assess where he stands physically.

@FranzkeLA: Higher total in the month of October: Phillies wins or Flyers points?

The Flyers have 11 games in the month of October, which means that they could max out at 22 standings points. We’ll get into their specific games in a second.

As for the Phillies, their maximum win total is 13, and that’s even a stretch. First, it assumes that they have to play in the wild card round, which they likely will avoid, given their big lead in the NL East right now. (Yes, I know they’re struggling at the moment. Calm down. They’ll get it together.) If we remove those two potential wins, that cuts it down to a maximum of 11 October wins.

Then, there’s the possibility that the World Series carries into November. By my estimation, it’s at least theoretically possible that Games 6 and 7 of the WS could occur in November. Now, it’s not a certainty the series gets that far, or that the Phillies need to win “both” games to close it out. But let’s acknowledge that the 11 maximum is something of a soft 11.

That means that, assuming the best case scenario for the Phillies, the Flyers only have to collect half of their possible standings points in October to “beat” the Phils. I’d say they have a good chance to do so. Matchups against Calgary, Seattle, Montreal and St. Louis are all “should win” games, and that would get them to eight. Then, there are toss-up games versus middle-of-the-road clubs like Washington (x2) and Minnesota. Win two of those three, and they’re at 12 points. Done. And that’s even without getting any points out of Vancouver (x2), Edmonton, or Boston.

Also, we’re taking a big leap by assuming that the Phillies will win the World Series and secure more than 10 wins in October. Though let’s not think too hard about that now.

@SteveMalogna: Does the Flyers’ future contending D core have a “1D” or do they believe they can compete with 2 pairs of 2-3 caliber players (a la Nashville/Florida)? How many current players fit into that plan?

First, let’s identify which defensemen I believe the Flyers see as “part of the future,” because it’s not everyone. In my estimation, it’s a six-man group.

• Cam York
• Travis Sanheim
• Jamie Drysdale
• Oliver Bonk
• Emil Andrae
• Hunter McDonald

Do I see a slam-dunk 1D in this group? To be blunt, no.

Drysdale has the physical tools to be a top-pair defenseman, but his NHL results to this point have been below-average. Also, the hard truth is that he’s an undersized, offensively-oriented blueliner; those guys have to be at Cale Makar/Erik Karlsson levels of talent to qualify as 1D-level defensemen given their inherent weaknesses as players in physical scrums and taking on tough d-zone shifts. I don’t see that in Drysdale.

Travis Sanheim is Travis Sanheim. He’s a great No. 3, a fine No. 2, but not a No. 1.

Cam York could have another level to reach. But thus far, he hasn’t showcased a dynamic element to his game, nor has he been a particularly impressive puck-mover. (Seriously, if you have access to Corey Sznajder’s manually-tracked data, check it out. He’s graded out as below-average in basically every zone exit category for the past two seasons.) To me, he looks like another player in the Sanheim realm of upside, not a potential star.

Bonk, of course, is still an unknown. He took a big leap last season in his development, and further jumps could be in his future. Right now, however, I still see more of a good-at-everything, not-great-at-any-one-thing type of NHL defenseman. If I squint, I could see him also maxing out in that No. 2/3 tier.

I’ll talk more about Andrae shortly, but his fine-not-dominant Year 1 in North America has me leaning more towards “second-pair ceiling” rather than “maybe if all breaks right he can be Kimmo 2.0,” which I thought was at least a remote possibility this time last year.

McDonald I’m not yet sold on as an NHL-caliber defenseman (though he did impress me at development camp), let alone a top-half-of-the-lineup one.

So that gives them four defensemen — York, Sanheim, Drysdale and Bonk — that I see as possessing borderline first-pair upside. They still lack that “alpha” blueliner, yes, but they’re not lacking for talent. Perhaps they could indeed put together a great by-committee top-4 even without finding that top-of-the-lineup stud. I suspect they’ll continue searching for him, of course, but there’s a scenario where they’re fine on the back end even without him, yes.

@Jordan941941: Help me project Emil Andrae. Does he slot in as a second pair d-man, a third-pair PP specialist, something more? He had a great AHL season by all accounts, so wondering if the smooth transition changed his projectability.

I wouldn’t call Andrae’s AHL debut campaign “great.” It certainly was fine — 32 points in 61 games ranked him sixth among rookie defensemen, and my understanding is that the Flyers were satisfied with his season.

But I wouldn’t say they were blown away. He was good, occasionally flashing the upside that has the front office believing he can indeed be a top-4 NHL defenseman in due time. It just wasn’t every night. Andrae doesn’t enter training camp as a favorite to make the big club, and if he truly had a standout AHL debut, he’d be viewed as such. Instead, he’s simply in the mix.

As for my projection of Andrae? I see a potential second-pair defenseman ceiling. I’ve long been bullish on Andrae, and if he had truly flourished in 2023-24 (either sticking at the NHL level or dominating in the AHL), I’d be thinking that he could be a No. 2/3 type. But I’ve pulled back my expectations a touch. I still think he finds a way to overcome his less-than-ideal size and the fact that he doesn’t have elite wheels to compensate. His hyper-competitiveness and hockey IQ, I believe, will help him a lot in that regard.

But I’m no longer realistically hoping for an impact NHL defenseman. If he ends up as a solid play-driving second pair guy who can chip in on PP2 here and there, I’ll be satisfied. And there are plenty of worlds where he tops out as a third-pair defenseman, or even an AHL/NHL swingman call-up type. There’s still a lot of different paths that Andrae’s career could take.

@ObyTrice412: Can the Flyers teach Tyson Foerster to play center, like they did with Claude Giroux? He has the size, hockey IQ, and plays a 200-foot game. Would seem to fill a glaring hole and open up a spot on the wing.

I’ve wondered as well if Foerster could be tested out as a center. He has the hockey IQ, the defensive awareness, and the size to theoretically thrive there. Obviously, he’s not exactly fleet of foot, but that didn’t stop Sean Couturier from becoming a Selke Trophy-caliber pivot.

But when I asked John Tortorella last spring in a media availability if the coaching staff had ever given any thought to giving Foerster an audition in the middle, he basically scoffed and said that they view him exclusively as a winger.

That doesn’t mean they won’t give it a look at some point down the road. But Tortorella at least doesn’t seem to think much of the idea. Given how often he’s praised Foerster for his excellent puck-battle work along the boards, I suspect that plays into it — a winger is naturally going to be stationed along the boards more often than a center would, especially on breakouts.

Personally, I’d at least ponder the possibility, especially since — as you state — the Flyers are stacked with long-term solutions at wing and light down the middle. But it doesn’t appear to be an idea that the Flyers (or Tortorella specifically) thinks is worthwhile.

@SincerelyNotMe3: You think the great man himself (TK) and Michkov will be a good duo?

I’d be lying if I said I knew for sure if they’ll ultimately showcase chemistry. Part of the fun of hockey is being surprised by which players end up clicking on the ice.

That said, I don’t think it’s necessarily a slam-dunk pairing, for a few reasons.

First off, they both are primarily right wingers; Michkov is a left-shot who prefers to play the right side, as many Europeans do. Konecny is capable of playing LW and has done it before, but it’s not his preferred spot. I’m sure they’ll try TK and Michkov together at 5-on-5 at some point, but that’s a reason it might not work.

Second, Konecny and Michkov are both pure goal scorers at heart. There’s only one puck to go around.

Third, both are offensive-centric wingers known to “cheat” in the neutral zone at times and fly the zone on breakouts to try and generate transition rushes. One winger — especially if he’s highly skilled — doing that on a line is generally fine. Two wingers doing it runs the risk of defensive breakdowns.

That said, I’m sure the two would be dynamic together on the rush; Konecny is one of the league’s better transition attackers, and Michkov has the hockey IQ to read off such a dangerous rush player and make him even scarier to opposing goalies. I’m also hopeful that the Flyers can find a strong strategic fit on the same power play unit for the two of them; maybe with Konecny as a below-the-goal-line set-up man and Michkov in a shooting position.

But I’m more intrigued by the 5-on-5 chemistry potential of Morgan Frost and Michkov (pure setup man with pure goal scorer) or Tyson Foerster and Michkov (big, defensively sound, high hockey IQ winger with touch around the net with smaller, hyper-intelligent goal scorer) than Konecny/Michkov, to be honest.

@Phillyaws: What players on the Flyers have the best chance to represent their country in Milan for 2026 Winter Olympics?

Frankly, there aren’t a ton of options.

Matvei Michkov certainly would be in consideration for Russia by 2026, especially if he thrives in the NHL (as Flyers fans hope he will). The problem is that Russia very well may not be allowed to compete in the 2026 Olympic Games. This year, they were banned from all team events (a limited number of individual athletes were allowed to participate) due to the invasion of Ukraine, and the specific hockey ban will last at least into 2025. Perhaps that conflict will be concluded by 2026; perhaps not. If it’s still ongoing, however, Michkov might not even be an option.

The Flyers are loaded with Canadian players, but I’m skeptical any of them will end up on the team. Travis Konecny probably has the best chance, but that says less for his odds and more the low odds of his teammates. TK would need to deliver a massive offensive breakout — far beyond merely being a point-per-game player — to put himself on the radar for Team Canada. As always, it’s a loaded roster filled with bonafide superstars, and Konecny just isn’t at that level.

Same with Team USA. Maybe Joel Farabee or Cam York breaks out in a big way over the next 1.5 years, but right now, they’ll be hard-pressed to crack such a loaded team. The U.S. roster is arguably even better than that of Canada.

But there are two current Flyers players who can be considered early favorites to make their countries’ clubs. Rasmus Ristolainen has long been a Finland national team staple; as long as he’s healthy and still remotely effective, I imagine he’ll make the cut.

And while Sam Ersson certainly checks in behind Linus Ullmark and Jacob Markstrom, he’d be a logical choice as Team Sweden’s No. 3, especially if he further establishes himself as a quality NHL starter this season. Maybe prospect Jesper Wallstedt jumps Ersson with a big 2024-25 season with the Wild, but right now, I’d give Ersson the edge.

One dark horse who could make it? Recent Euro signing Rodrigo Abols, who plays for Team Latvia. They’re not a lock to make the 2026 tournament, but they’re in the final qualifying round and stand as one of the favorites to secure one of the final three spots available. If they make it, Abols will almost certainly be on the team. He just may not still be in the Flyers’ organization by then; he only received a one-year contract through 2025.

@Voxzinski: Lots of Ron Hextall & “it’s the same team” takes out there. Maybe I am giving too much benefit of the doubt, but given scuttlebutt of Danny talking (to teams) at the draft, etc. should the narrative be moreso refusal to lose a trade just for change?

I’m sure that absolutely is Briere’s thought process. It was no secret that the Flyers actively explored the trade market in June, both at the draft and around free agency. But ultimately, Briere didn’t find a deal that he felt made sense for the Flyers. If you trust Briere, then yes, that explanation is likely sufficient for you.

I certainly wouldn’t consider myself to be “out on Danny” like some of his more fierce critics on social media profess to be. But I do think his relatively uneventful offseason should not be celebrated.

If the Flyers aren’t going to bottom-out with the aim of acquiring blue-chip prospects at the top of the draft, they need to get those players in other ways. And their actions this summer — aside from, of course, successfully getting Matvei Michkov over to North America — at least at first glance do not appear to have addressed that need. Briere traded down in the draft rather than snap up a player generally accepted to be a top-10 talent (Zeev Buium) and then reached relative to public consensus on Jett Luchanko. Briere then followed up that maneuver by sitting out free agency and the trade market, and did not bring in a player with perceived high-end upside.

It’s completely understandable that people are frustrated. The Flyers have openly stated that they need more high-end players for this rebuild to work. But to that end this summer, they basically are asking fans to trust them that Luchanko > Buium (or more accurately, Luchanko + Spencer Gill > Buium, since that’s who they acquired via the trade-down asset), and that they’re absolutely going to nail the 2025 and 2026 summers in terms of talent acquisition.

Briere and the Flyers very well could! And if they do, this summer will be universally celebrated as a shrewd exercise in patience. But if the summers of 2025 and 2026 look a lot like this one, that’s just not going to cut it in terms of constructing a contender, unless they unearth a few studs on draft day via non-prime drafting positions.

@kevn54321: Charlie, I saw the @thursdayband shirt on one PHLY Flyers show. Favorite album?

Favorite album of theirs from a nostalgia standpoint is A City By The Light Divided. But I strongly believe that No Devolución is their best start-to-finish record. I wish the Pitchfork/indie crew had given it a chance back in 2011 when it was released, because sonically and thematically, it’s very much an “art rock” record.

Dave Fridmann may have worked with them on ACBTLD and Common Existence, but on the former, the producer and band were still feeling each other out, and on the latter, they purposely tried to go back to the heavy post-hardcore style that Fridmann’s production can’t elevate (Circuits of Fever still rips though, as a weird Mercury Rev/At the Drive-In mash-up). On No Devolución, they leaned fully into that atmospheric style reminiscent of the best 1980s alternative rock acts, and Fridmann complements it beautifully. I view it as one of the best rock records of the 2010s.